tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513161779326801242024-02-20T12:16:22.119-08:00Catholic Coast Hoops - A WCC Basketball BlogMid-Major Hoops; Heavy on the Stats; Light on the John Feinstein-Sentimentalism Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-61296877833457827482016-03-30T13:06:00.002-07:002016-03-30T13:06:53.759-07:00A Look at What Broncos Fans Can Expect from Herb Sendek<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Santa Clara hired Herb Sendek (above) to a six year deal on March 28th. Sendek formerly coached at North Carolina State and most recently at Arizona State until 2015.</td></tr>
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<a href="http://www.sfgate.com/collegesports/article/Santa-Clara-hires-Herb-Sendek-as-head-basketball-7213970.php">So it seems official,</a> Herb Sendek is going to be the new head coach for the Santa Clara Broncos. Shortly after the Pacific Tigers made a splash by hiring former NBA star and Arizona Wildcat Damon Stoudamire, the Broncos replaced the outgoing Keating, who had only two winning campaigns in his nine-year tenure at Santa Clara, with a proven head coach who has won in the MAC, ACC and Pac-12. <a href="http://catholiccoasthoops.blogspot.com/2016/03/evaluating-wcc-open-coaching-positions.html">In an earlier post</a>, I felt Sendek was a good fit because of his proven resume not just as a head coach, but as a recruiter in the West Coast, and it looks like the Santa Clara administration ponied up the money and got the best guy for the job.<br />
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Let's take a look at some of the positive and negatives of Sendek coming to not just Santa Clara, but the WCC in general.<br />
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<b>Positives of Sendek at Santa Clara</b><br />
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Sendek coming to the Broncos is a big boost for the coaching community in the WCC. Sendek has bountiful head coaching experience at the Division 1 level, as he has led three schools (Miami of Ohio, NC State and Arizona State) to the NCAA Tournament under his watch. He has a career record of 413-295, and he has only had a losing season three times in his 22-year coaching career. That is pretty damn impressive no matter how you cut it. When it comes to success on the court, Sendek has the kind of resume that can compete with the big coaching names in conference such as Mark Few of Gonzaga, Randy Bennett at St. Mary's and Dave Rose at BYU. That profile alone will make Santa Clara a bigger name not just in conference circles, but in national media circles as well. Do not be surprised to see the Broncos' name thrown out a lot in preseason magazines simply due to Sendek's name alone.<br />
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Another strong aspect of Sendek's profile is his ability to recruit, as he has been able to get sneaky good polished talent to lead his teams, both at NC State and Arizona State. With the Wolfpack, he was able to land Julius Hodge, who led them to a Sweet 16 appearance in the NCAA Tournament in 2005 and an 11-win ACC campaign and NCAA Tournament second-round appearance in 2004. At Arizona State, he most famously landed James Harden and had him stay for two seasons. Harden had a solid college career with the Sun Devils, leading the to the NCAA Tournament second round his second year. Furthermore, Sendek also brought in top talent like Jahii Carson (who led them to a tournament berth in 2014) and Jamelle McMillan (the son of former NBA player and coach Nate), so recruiting in the West Coast is something that Sendek is not only familiar with, but has a history of succeeding at considering the circumstances (Arizona State tends to lean more toward football and even baseball in terms of fan attention).<br />
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And lastly, the style of play typically seen from Sendek's teams plays well into the WCC's "wide-open" reputation. Though Sendek teams play typically a slow pace (only in his last two years did they have a tempo that ranked in the Top-150 when it came to speed), they are extremely perimeter-oriented and rely heavily on the 3-point shot. In terms of 3-point attempt percentage, his ASU teams ranked in the top-100 seven out of his nine years as a head coach (the lone exceptions being 2012 and 2015, his last year), and ranked in the top-15 in that category in 2009 (11th) and 2010 (9th). The fact that Sendek embraces the 3-point shot is a good sign for this Santa Clara team going into next year, as his philosophy plays well into what the Broncos have done offensively as of late under Keating. Since 2011, the Broncos ranked in the top-100 in 3-point attempt percentage every season. Considering Sendek is an accomplished coach whose teams' offensive efficiency, according to Ken Pom, have always ranked in the top-100 (with the exception of 2012, 2011 and 2007, his first season at ASU), the fact that he will be taking over a program that has played his style of basketball (being perimeter-oriented and relying on the 3-point shot) in the past half-decade or so is a good sign that the coaching veteran can pull a quick turnaround of sorts in his first season with the Broncos.<br />
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<b>Negatives of Sendek's hire at Santa Clara</b><br />
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As with any coaching veteran who comes from a big school to a small school, the question for Sendek perhaps is not "if" he will pull a coaching turnaround but how long will he stick around when he achieves the first successful season in a while at Santa Clara (and by successful I mean NCAA Tournament berth). Though Sendek spent a lot of time in the West Coast at Arizona State, he is not a West Coast guy. He was born and raised in Pennsylvania, and he went to college in Pittsburgh at Carnegie Mellon. His jobs at Miami of Ohio and even NC State played more into his background than the Arizona State job, and many critics of his felt Sendek wasn't successful at ASU because he didn't fit into the mold of what is expected from a "West Coast" coach (i.e. he didn't make the necessary connections to have lasting recruiting impact there).<br />
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So with this being known, what if Penn State comes calling if Sendek succeeds early at Santa Clara? What about Pitt or another school in that rust belt area? Will Santa Clara's "fun and sun" of the South Bay be enough? Or will Sendek itch to be in a bigger conference at a bigger school should they come calling? That will be a major questions with Sendek going forward, simply because he doesn't have the kind of ties that could keep him long-term at Santa Clara unlike Gonzaga's Few (Oregon) and St. Mary's Bennett (Arizona) who grew up geographically close to their jobs, and Rose, whose personal background (being Mormon) is a major tie to him staying at BYU.<br />
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Another issue with Sendek is that his teams have had a history of not necessarily living up to expectations. Despite being a constant NCAA Tournament participant, his NC State team never made it past the Sweet 16, and that happened in his second to last year there, and they were sub-.500 in ACC play that season as well. At Arizona State, too many bad losses marred years where they could have been potential at-large participants, and as a result, his Sun Devils teams only made the NCAA Tournament twice in his 9 years there. And lastly, Sendek was mostly known for his 8-38 record at NC State against conference rivals Duke and North Carolina. While beating Duke and UNC is no easy task it makes you wonder how Sendek could do against Gonzaga and St. Mary's who own the WCC in a similar way to Duke and UNC in the ACC. Was Sendek's lackluster record a matter of luck, or is Sendek simply the kind of coach who can only maintain a mid-tier or slightly above program no matter the conference (his Arizona State teams never won a Pac-12 title under his watch) he is coaching in? If Sendek wants to make a splash and get Santa Clara to where it hasn't been since 1995 (the Big Dance), then he is going to need to go through the conference favorites to do so, and Sendek doesn't necessarily have the history to show that he can topple the best in conference over the whole course of a season.<br />
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<b>What to expect from Herb?</b><br />
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Yes, Sendek did not have much success against Duke and North Carolina. Yes, he only made the NCAA Tournament twice at Arizona State. Yes, he is more of an Yinzer than a Beach Bum and that doesn't bode well for him "finishing" his career as a Bronco. But Santa Clara made a great hire nonetheless and one that I think will make them competitive immediately or at the least within the next three years. Sendek's a proven offensive coach whose style will mesh with the program currently, but the conference as a whole, which favors the outside-oriented game. It'll be interesting to see if Jared Brownridge, the Broncos' best offensive player the past couple of seasons, will stay in Santa Clara his senior season, as well as other major contributors, including guards such as to-be-sophomore KJ Feagin and to-be-junior Kai Healy and to-be-senior post Nate Kratch. If Sendek returns those players, it is entirely possible to see the Broncos as a bit of a dark horse, as Sendek's system and philosophy as a coach most likely will fit into the talent he will have next season.<br />
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But the big question though is if those guys will stay. In this day and age, it is a lot easier for a kid to go to another program after a coaching change than stick it out, especially in the Broncos' star player's case. After all, Brownridge may not be willing to go through the growing pains in what could be his last year as a collegiate player. It may be too big of a risk, and Sendek has had times before where he didn't mesh with star players (<a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiXzPfimenLAhVjsoMKHc1SBD8QFggyMAY&url=http%3A%2F%2Farchive.azcentral.com%2Fsports%2Fasu%2Farticles%2F20120108asu-basketball-dismisses-keala-king.html&usg=AFQjCNHY7SCLkjt9W2Hlckkd2nmH6krdUw&sig2=OhFWXpXR1kOrMCSrOcjPHw">he kicked his top returning scorer at Arizona State in 2012 for "unacceptable content</a>").<br />
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That being said, if Brownridge does stay, along with everyone else? Don't be surprised to see Santa Clara make some kind of run in the WCC in 2017. Sendek is that polished a coach and the situation and talent fit is that good for him next year.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-83637910300402364822016-03-29T14:02:00.000-07:002016-03-29T15:21:36.446-07:00Can a NIT Championship Redeem BYU's Season?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A NIT Championship would be big for senior Kyle Collinsworth (above) and the BYU Cougars after missing out on the big dance. However, they will have to get by a good Valparaiso team in the NIT Semis first.</td></tr>
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It has been a bit of a disappointing season for Dave Rose and the BYU Cougars, who failed to make the NCAA Tournament for only the second time since 2007 (the other time they missed was in 2013). Considering they had all-around Swiss Army knife Kyle Collinsworth returning, many figured the Cougars would at least challenge Gonzaga and St. Mary's for the WCC crown or at least an at-large NCAA Tournament berth. Unfortunately, though the Cougars posted a respectable 22-9 record and 13-5 mark in WCC play in the regular season, their campaign was marred by some head-scratching losses.<br />
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On November 16th, their second game of the year, they lost 66-65 to a Long Beach State team that ranked 90th overall according to Ken Pom. However, that was only the tip of the iceberg as the Cougars also lost to Portland (ranked 212th according to Ken Pom) 84-81 and Pepperdine (139th) 71-65 on the road and Pacific (233rd) 77-72 at HOME (safe to say, the loss to the Tigers, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj2iKOX3ebLAhUDPxQKHZVPAzAQFggdMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbssports.com%2Fcollegebasketball%2Feye-on-college-basketball%2F25411019%2Fncaa-investigation-leads-to-suspension-of-pacifics-ron-verlin-assistant&usg=AFQjCNHcIEub0l8RxtugweTsmFuXUMawTQ&sig2=bcQTcHT5_cpwQFtbRuV6Xg">who were playing with an interim coach</a>, pretty much sealed the deal when it came to their candidacy as an at-large selection). The Cougars had some good wins on their resume, including beating Gonzaga in Spokane and St. Mary's in Provo, and over New Mexico and Northern Iowa (a tournament team) on a neutral court. But the bad losses just haunted them throughout the year, and that was a key reason why they weren't even hoping for an at-large spot on Selection Sunday.<br />
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Luckily for Cougar fans though, BYU did not take participation in the secondary-tournament as a slap in the face or a measly consolation prize. Unlike St. Mary's, who was throttled against Valpo on the road in the third round of the NIT, the Cougars made the Final Four of the NIT at Madison Square Garden, where they will face the same team that easily dispatched the Gaels a week earlier. Let's take a look at the Cougars' prospects and what a NIT championship would mean to BYU going forward.<br />
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<b>NIT Championship Outlook</b><br />
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BYU has gotten some good wins in a NIT tournament that was loaded with worthy opponents who certainly deserved at-large consideration. They easily beat UAB, who was the regular season Conference USA champion (and whose coach is now the head man at Stanford) 97-79 in the first round of the tournament, and won an 80-77 nail biter against a much improved Virginia Tech team that will look to be a dark horse next year in the ACC under Buzz Williams, the former Marquette coach who will begin his third season next year. But the biggest win was over a Creighton team that looked a whole lot better statistically (ranked 40th in Ken Pom) than their record (20-15). In an up-tempo shootout (76 possessions) in Provo, the Cougars outscored the Jays 88-82 to clinch a Final Four spot in Manhattan.<br />
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Now, the Cougars will go against a Crusaders team more known for their defense than offense, something that the Cougars really didn't see so far in the early round of the NIT (all the teams had higher adjusted offensive ratings than defensive ones). Valpo's 92.7 points per 100 possession adjusted defensive rating was 8th best in the nation, and was key in big wins for them this year over the Gaels, Oregon State and Iona (the last two being NCAA Tournament teams). Unlike the Cougars, who like to push the tempo and get off quick shots as evidenced by their 74.2 adjusted tempo (11th fastest in the nation) and 14.5 second average possession length (7th fastest in the nation), the Crusaders prefer a slower, more half-court-oriented approach. Head Coach Bryce Drew's (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Rm_eAiV4dA">yes, this same Bryce Drew</a>) squad posted a tempo of 67.2 (263rd fastest in the nation) and had an APL of 17.6 (206th fastest). That being said, just because they are slower in their approach doesn't mean the Crusaders are a "throw it in the paint" kind of team. Instead, they are a very perimeter-oriented squad that can torch teams from beyond the arc. 32.4 percent of their points come from 3-point land and they play a pretty deep bench, as their 36.1 bench minutes percentage is 71st highest in the nation. Add that with an experienced squad (they are the 31st most experienced team in the nation) and some key players in combo forward Alec Peters (his 129.5 offensive rating was 13th best in the nation) and senior guard Keith Carter (his 29.3 assist rate was 98th highest in the nation) and the Cougars will certainly have their hands full tonight. The matchup between Peters and Collinsworth will be an interesting one to follow as whoever has the better night could be crucial in whether or not their team will garner a berth in the NIT Championship game.<br />
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If the Cougars do get by Valpo, a potential old-school MWC matchup with San Diego State is a possibility, as the Aztecs face George Washington after the BYU-Valpo tilt. Much like the Crusaders, Steve Fisher's squad relies on defense, as they ranked 2nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (89.9). Without a doubt, whether it's tonight or in the Championship, BYU will have to make their shots and pick it up on the defensive end against two very good defensive squads. The Cougars like their fast pace-style, as they have only played in 5 games this year where the possession mark was under 70. In order for the Cougars to maintain that pace, they are going to need to own the glass and generate turnovers on the defensive end, since Valpo (and maybe San Diego State) won't exactly feed into BYU's "early shot" tendencies.<br />
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<b>What a NIT Championship Will Mean</b><br />
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The NIT isn't the NCAA Tournament, make no mistake about that. However, while BYU's chances seemed shot after their loss to Pacific, Valpo and San Diego State were two teams who had legitimate beefs with the NCAA Selection committee. Valpo beat Oregon State and was ranked 31st in the nation (almost 30 spot higher than the Beavers) according to Ken Pom. San Diego State was the best MWC team by far and was ranked 32nd in Ken Pom Ratings. If BYU can beat both of those teams on a neutral court, not only will it be a satisfying end for Rose's squad and make up for a disappointing campaign in the regular season, but it would be a nice way for Collinsworth to end his Cougar career after missing out in the Big Dance his senior season.<br />
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Of course, this won't be easy. As stated before, Valpo beat St. Mary's by 16 and held them to 0.75 PPP, one of their lowest totals of the season. The Crusaders can get after it defensively, and if the Cougars struggle to hit shots, that will make things very difficult at MSG. Collinsworth is the key sure, but the Cougars will need perimeter players such as Vandy transfer Chase Fischer and freshman Nick Emery to step it up offensively and defensively if they want to have a shot at winning this thing.<br />
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Yes, the WCC only gained 1 NCAA Tournament berth this year. But a Sweet 16 appearance and a NIT Championship? Well, that would be something to build on for next year and not just for Rose's program (he will still have returners in Emery, Kyle Davis, Corbin Kaufusi, and Zac Seljaas next season, meaning they have a good shot to compete for a WCC title next year), but the WCC as a whole.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-17669467705475747682016-03-28T18:43:00.000-07:002016-03-28T18:43:00.264-07:00NBA Bound? Why Gonzaga's Domantas Sabonis Should Declare for the Draft<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Domantas Sabonis was key to the Zags' success in March and should be a NBA first round pick this upcoming draft.</td></tr>
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If you want to understand how the Zags were a minute away from going to the Elite Eight, look no further than the triumvirate of guard Eric McCllelan, forward Kyle Wiltjer and center Domantas Sabonis. In the six games the Zags played in March (in which they went 5-1), the three players all took Ken Pom MVP awards in the games they played, with McCllelan earning three (Utah, St. Mary's and Portland), Sabonis earning two (Seton Hall and Syracuse) and Wiltjer one (BYU). The combination of McCllelan's streaky scoring and tough defense, Wiltjer's offensive versatility and Sabonis' post scoring and rebounding presence made these Zags tough to beat in March, and after Syracuse's upset win over Virginia to earn a spot in the Final Four, it definitely makes you wonder what could have been possible had the Zags took better care of the ball in the closing minutes in Chicago.<br />
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While there is no questioning the three's impact in the past month, one of these players will be the sole focus of Gonzaga fans' attention and that is Sabonis. McCllelan and Wiltjer have exhausted their eligibility and will now be transitioning to professional careers in some kind of capacity this summer (Wiltjer could be a second round pick; McCllelan most likely will be looking D-League or overseas). Sabonis on the other hand has just completed his sophomore year, and still has two years left to wear a Gonzaga uniform.<br />
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That is if he wants it. Because to be perfectly frank, not only is he a much more sought after NBA prospect than either of the graduating seniors, he also is one of the Zags' best pro prospects in a long time, and has a chance to be the Zags' first First Round pick since Kelly Olynyk in 2013.<br />
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Now, make no mistake, Sabonis is not really a bonafide lottery pick by any means and this is a pretty loaded draft (unlike Olynyk's where there wasn't really a consensus no. 1). There is top "one and done talent" in Ben Simmons from LSU (the consensus No. 1), Brandon Ingram from Duke, and Jalen Brown and Ivan Rabb from California. Polished college scorers like Buddy Hield from Oklahoma and Kris Dunn from Providence. And high-upside European prospects like Dragan Bender from Maccabi Tel Aviv and Timothe Luwawu from Mega Leks of the Adriatic League. Without elite height or wingspan, and average to slightly below athleticism, there is no question that Sabonis' pales at first glance in comparison to many of the eligible prospects who are expected to enter this summer's NBA Draft.<br />
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Many college coaches would not encourage Sabonis to declare considering his circumstances. To most college coaches, if you're not a lottery pick, the risk is too high and the reward is too great. Famously, Tyler Ennis declared for the NBA Draft though he was guaranteed to be a first round pick, but not a lottery one, much to the chagrin of his head coach Jim Boeheim. Boeheim argued that Ennis would go into a tough situation without much financial security if he was drafted outside the lottery. And, as much as I dislike the whiny Boehiem, he has proven to be right. Ennis has been flip flopped around the league and has probably spent as much time on a D-League floor than a NBA one.<br />
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But, Sabonis is a special player, and while his natural gifts and athleticism may not be "first round" worthy, other aspects of his game make him a great value that will not only be seen and recognize by a NBA team, but perhaps even utilized in some kind of playing role as early as next year. Sabonis is not a project by any means, and that alone will give him a lot of value to teams that are looking to build immediately competitive teams through the draft.<br />
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So, why should Sabonis leave and not stay for perhaps another "March Run"? Here are two reasons why Sabonis should stay not just for the benefit of himself but to the benefit of the Gonzaga basketball program as well.<br />
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<b>Reason No.1: Sabonis' stock is probably as high as it ever will be and there really isn't anything he can truly work on in 2017 to make him a better prospect</b><br />
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I'm not going to pretend to be a "draft" expert by any means. I watch a lot of basketball, college and NBA included (I subscribe to NBA League pass). I will let other, more qualified writers (like <a href="http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Domantas-Sabonis-62889/">here</a> and <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwipyryW2OTLAhUI4mMKHUW1BOkQqQIIHCgAMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sbnation.com%2F2016%2F3%2F21%2F11274376%2Fdonatas-sabonis-gonzaga-basketball-nba-draft-jakob-poeltl-ncaa-tournament-2016&usg=AFQjCNEsmGGVdr1m7I0qneuLqpkguoAIEA&sig2=ZMQ5HdnCggaUuf6RfaH2Nw&bvm=bv.118353311,bs.2,d.amc">here</a>) determine Sabonis' exact stock in comparison to other eligible prospects for this draft. But the fact of the matter is this: nobody in college basketball has raised their stock more in the past month than Sabonis.<br />
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First off, look at the numbers: Sabonis averaged 17.3 ppg and 11.5 rpg on 61.3 percent shooting from the floor and posted a 76.9 percent free throw percentage in 33 games this year. If you go into the advanced numbers, the Lithuanian looks even better: he posted a 120.0 adjusted offensive rating according to Ken Pom, with a 115.0 adjusted offensive rating against Tier A competition, much better marks than McCllelan (110) and Wiltjer (105). His 28.2 defensive rebounding rate was 14th best in the nation, and his 65.1 true shooting percentage ranked him 21st in the nation. And to wrap it all up, according to Ken Pom's national player of the year ranking, Sabonis ranks eighth, putting him in the same class with other more heralded players such as Perry Ellis (who ranks 5th), Georges Niang (who ranks 6th) and Virginia's Anthony Gill (who actually is behind him at 10th). In a game and professional league that is becoming more and more reliant on analytics and advanced numbers, Sabonis satisfies the requirements as a legitimate first round pick and possible sleeper lottery pick.<br />
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But if you're one of those guys who doesn't buy into all the stats (i.e. <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi83ey-2uTLAhUQ4WMKHTFnB9EQqQIIIigAMAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fawfulannouncing.com%2F2016%2Fseth-davis-tells-fans-put-spread-sheet.html&usg=AFQjCNElYzxBEVDeFHcPmeg64hhYsHYpRA&sig2=zXfT__Zz30CfGePitohPPA&bvm=bv.118353311,bs.2,d.amc">Seth Davis)</a>, then look at what Sabonis has done on the floor. His footwork is impeccable for a post player, and his bevy of fakes and pivot moves makes up for his lack of length and athleticism. Furthermore, his motor is non-stop and without a doubt, Sabonis carried the Zags numerous times this year emotionally, especially in big games such as the WCC Championship and in the NCAA Tournament. But the biggest crowning achievement? His defensive shutdown of lottery pick Jakob Poeltel of Utah in the second round. Poeltel came into the game as one of the best offensive post players in the country, as evidenced by his 17.3 ppg and 8.9 rpg in 34 games and 124.1<br />
adjusted offensive rating for the year. But against Sabonis? The Austrian center was limited to 5 points on 2 of 5 shooting and only nabbed 4 rebounds, good for an offensive rating of 77, his second lowest rating of the year (his lowest was 66 in a contest against Colorado on January 8th). Despite giving up a couple of inches and some considerable weight to Sabonis, the Lithuanian pushed Poeltel off the block on constant occasion and made him a non-factor whenever he was on the floor. If critics needed confirmation that Sabonis could handle himself against NBA bigs, then they were given a rude awakening after his sterling performance against Utah (he also scored 19 points, nabbed 10 rebounds and sported an offensive rating of 134).<br />
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And that's the issue with Sabonis coming back. Unless he leads Gonzaga to the Final Four next year, I can't imagine his stock getting any higher. He really has done all he could do to prove that he can play at the NBA level. Furthermore, there is nothing major that he needs to work on that another year of college would help him with. He has played well against good competition in high-pressure moments (the WCC and NCAA Tournament). He has put up good numbers. He has diversified his game, adding a sneaky good mid-range shot. Yes, Sabonis is left-hand dominant, and the athleticism isn't there, but I can't imagine Sabonis really getting considerably better in those categories with another year of college. For some players, coming back made sense. Olynyk needed to get stronger and he could put time in the weight room to do so. Sabonis is already pretty strong and has a NBA frame, and that will get more refined with more round-the-clock training at the professional level. Team-wise, yes, the Zags would be a heck of a lot better with Sabonis. But individually? There really is no incentive for Sabonis to come back, and I think he will realize that and enter the draft with his stock so high already (and could even go up more due to his father being Arvydas Sabonis).<br />
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<b>Reason #2: The Zags will be garnering a lot of talent next year, and Sabonis returning could clog things up and result in potential transfers.</b><br />
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While we still do not know Przemek Karnowski's off-season intentions (he probably has more to gain by staying after missing the year due to back injury but you never know), there will be an influx of talent this off-season that will lessen the loss of Sabonis. Center Ryan Edwards, though limited offensively, is a big body that will thrive with more minutes. And furthermore, the Zags will also add Missouri transfer Johnathan Williams, a stretch 4 type who could play small or power forward who has already been practicing with the team (along with Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss who could compete with Josh Perkins for the starting point guard spot). But the incoming freshman class will include McDonald's All-American Zach Collins, a 6-11 center from Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas that is the <a href="http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/189557/zach-collins">37th ranked player according to ESPN</a>, and European prospects Killian Tillie, a 6-8 forward from France and Jacob Larsen, a 6-10 F/C from Denmark. Considering the Zags' success with European prospects, it would not be surprising if Tillie and/or Larsen are better than their initial recruiting rankings.<br />
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Add all that with Karnowski probably back and somebody's feelings will get hurt on the bench and that could mean a potential transfer at the end of next season. As solid as Mark Few is, he definitely has his issues spreading minutes out, and that has definitely had an impact when it comes to players leaving the program (though for the most part, this hasn't hurt the Zags with the exception of Ryan Spangler, who to be fair transferred more to be closer to home than any beef he had with Gonzaga). Yes, there is considerable risk going with more unproven commodities to fill in Sabonis' spot, but if Karnowski is back it should soften the blow and allow the young guys to grow. Even if Karnwoski is back, the experience returning at guard in Perkins and Melson will also help the post players as they grow accustomed to the college game (though if Karnowski is not back, expect some early losses in the non-conference slate).<br />
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Yes, Sabonis would make the Zags a potential Final Four candidate and he would be a Naismith-watch player at the start of the season. But, in this day and age of constant transfers, the Zags would probably be best served if Sabonis declared, and that way, they could determine roles in the post positions this off-season during workouts.<br />
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<b>Final thoughts on Sabonis</b><br />
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As a Gonzaga fan, I have to think that Sabonis probably was one of the best frontcourt players in Gonzaga history, up there with Olynyk, Robert Sacre and JP Batista. In fact, I would go out on a limb and say he may be the best post player in Gonzaga history as no other player flashed his combo of efficiency and intensity on a night in and night out basis. Sabonis was fun to watch, especially as he yelled after And 1's and got after refs when he felt he was called. He was a guilty pleasure to watch as a Gonzaga fan, and it is a shame I wasn't able to watch Gonzaga as much as I wanted to this year. If I had followed Gonzaga as closely as I did in years past, I probably would have a poster of Sabonis in my classroom.<br />
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But, I love and know the NBA game, and Sabonis is ready and would be a fool to stay. And to be honest, that's okay not just for him, but for the Zags. Sometimes you need to move on, and by moving on, Gonzaga can go into this off-season forming their identity without him with the collection of young, though unproven, talent on the horizon.<br />
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As a Gonzaga fan, I know that is scary. After all, this year the Zags were so close to snapping their long-time NCAA Tournament streak, and without Sabonis' the Zags might have been in the NIT losing to Valpo rather than Syracuse. But all good things come to an end, and even though Sabonis leaving would be bittersweet, it is best for both parties involved not just for next year, but the next few as well.<br />
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Good luck Domas. I know I'll be enjoying seeing you get after NBA refs on League Pass next year.<br />
<br />Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-21901744848276120462016-03-27T21:57:00.000-07:002016-03-28T19:36:04.019-07:00Evaluating the WCC Open Coaching Positions<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">San Francisco's Rex Walters was one of four WCC head coaches let go after this season.</td></tr>
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If you could characterize the 2010's in the WCC as one thing, you could probably describe it as a decade of stability. Since 2010, there haven't been many major coaching changes, something that contrasted to the Mid 2000's, where it seemed every school other than Gonzaga or St. Mary's suffered from major and dramatic coaching changes. Other than LMU replacing Max Good with Mike Dunlap two seasons ago (a good decision which I think will come into major fruition next year), Marty Wilson taking over for a retiring Tom Asbury in 2012 and Lamont Smith replacing Bill Grier in 2015, things have been relatively quiet on the coaching carousel front in the WCC.<br />
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That changed this off-season, as Pacific, Santa Clara, Portland and San Francisco decided to fire their current head coaches and look for new leaders to "change the direction of their programs" (common AD talk whenever there is a coaching change). <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiw7YaVrOLLAhXoyIMKHflEDZ0QqQIIHCgAMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.azdesertswarm.com%2Fbasketball%2F2016%2F3%2F20%2F11271336%2Fdamon-stoudamire-is-ready-for-the-challenge-of-being-the-pacific-tigers-head-coach&usg=AFQjCNFwfHm-8Jc7BxcVO3c0R8aUvrFLSg&sig2=tdf4u5JvmeNFmp4EEOAWkQ&bvm=bv.117868183,d.amc">Pacific has quickly made one of the biggest splashes not just in the WCC, but nationally as well in the hiring of former Arizona Wildcat, NBA veteran and Memphis assistant Damon Stoudamire</a>. (More on that hire in another post.) Yet as of this moment, the Broncos, Pilots and Dons remain without coaches and it'll be interesting to see who can resurrect these once proud programs who have been unable to maintain consistent success despite sporting strong basketball history and being in talent-rich recruiting areas.</div>
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So, let's take a look at each program, what they have to offer and what the next guy will have to do to make those programs successful in the near future. While the WCC has improved competitively since the addition of BYU (mostly) and Pacific (not so much), <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiJnMWQr-LLAhXGnYMKHYtEARMQFggjMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbssports.com%2Fcollegebasketball%2Feye-on-college-basketball%2F25517293%2Fgonzaga-coach-mark-few-wcc-schools-need-to-pick-it-up&usg=AFQjCNHqQdCq4zqU1F32PHiBpl1FyVXsrQ&sig2=Rf-oPSR1RrBKBXuOhU9w4g">as Mark Few "hotly" noted in an interview shortly before the NCAA Tournament</a>, the WCC will only get more recognition for at-large berths if the middle-to-bottom tier programs "pick it up". Considering their major market status (San Francisco and Santa Clara being in the Bay Area and Portland in the Pacific Northwest), a coaching turnaround would not only benefit these long-struggling programs, but would also help the WCC become a better-recognized conference in Mid-Major circles in the near future as well.</div>
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<b>Portland Pilots</b></div>
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<b>Last Year:</b></div>
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12-20 overall, 6-12 in WCC play (tied for 6th). 4th in conference play in offensive efficiency and 9th in conference play in defensive efficiency. Ranked 214th in Ken Pom ratings.</div>
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<b>The Previous Coach: </b></div>
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Eric Reveno. Coached 10 years at Portland. Total record 140-178. Best season: 2010 where he had a 21-11 record, 10-4 mark in WCC play and was ranked 82nd in Ken Pom. Worst season: 2012 where he went 7-24, 3-13 in conference play and ranked 284th in Ken Pom ratings.</div>
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<b>Why Reveno is gone:</b></div>
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No offense to Reveno, but the program really plateaued in 2011, where he really rode forward Luke Sikma to lasting success. Since then, the Pilots have remained in the middle of the pack in the conference (sans 2012), not really bottoming out, but not really competing in the upper echelon either. The Pilots kinda were what they were under Reveno: scrappy, usually good offensively but never a real serious threat to compete with the Gonzaga, BYU and St. Mary's triumvirate.</div>
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Reveno came as a highly-regarded assistant out of Stanford under Mike Montgomery and replaced Michael Holton (hat tip to <a href="http://www.pilotnation.net/t5708p225-where-do-we-go-from-here#66242">Pilot Nation for the correction</a>, I always get Brad Holland of San Diego and Holton confused), who had NBA ties. He looked like he had the potential to build something lasting after he finished year two of his tenure, as the Pilots won 19, 21 and 20 games from 2009-2011. Unfortunately, that success proved to be the peak of his tenure, as the Pilots only enjoyed one more winning season in his tenure from 2012-2016 (a 17-16 campaign in 2015). Reveno tried to employ a more free-wheeling style of play this season that relied on a blistering tempo (72.6 adjusted possession per game, 35th fastest in the nation) and emphasis on the 3-pointer (38.9 percent 3FGA), but it didn't translate into wins, and a 12-20 record was just not enough to salvage his job.</div>
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<b>Why this job is enticing:</b></div>
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Portland is the only other school beyond Gonzaga to be located in the Pacific Northwest, and that is an advantage. Oregon and Washington are fertile recruiting states for talent, and Idaho and Montana also have potential for under-the-radar talent that often gets overlooked. Portland the city is also one of the coolest cities in the United States, with all the major amenities and culture of a major American city but with the laid back lifestyle typical of communities in the Pacific Northwest. And lastly, Portland is a basketball hub of sorts, especially considering the city's affinity for the Blazers. A legitimately good Pilots program will be recognized and lauded by the community, especially considering there is no NFL or MLB team in Portland (though the MLS team certainly has its strong fandom).</div>
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<b>Why this job is difficult:</b></div>
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The Blazers are the main game in town when it comes to hoops, so that doesn't help. But Oregon and Oregon State have legions of fans and alums located in Portland, and when those teams are doing well, they pretty much dominate the college basketball scene in the city. Much to the Pilots' chagrin, it was a banner year for both the Ducks and the Beavers, as Oregon won the Pac-12, earned a No. 1 seed and made it to the Elite 8 while Oregon State made their first NCAA Tournament berth since 1990. Considering Ducks coach Dana Altman and Beavers coach Wayne Tinkle aren't going anywhere anytime soon, the two programs look to be primed for continued success in the coming seasons, which makes the Pilots' chances of making a splash in the Portland and Pacific Northwest media scene extremely difficult. </div>
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<b>Who do the Pilots need?</b></div>
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The Pilots need a flashy hire, plain and simple. As consistent as Reveno was, he just never really generated a ton of excitement about this program. To be fair to him, that's never been his MO. He came from a program that was known for excellence, but being boring in doing so. (Seriously, remember Mark Madsen and Brevin Knight guys?) The Pilots need a guy who can recruit the Pacific Northwest as well as the West Coast with reckless abandon, and find guys whom Oregon and Oregon State are missing out on. <a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2016/03/who_is_up_next_as_portland_pil.html#0">In this article by Oregon Live</a>, a bunch of assistants such as Oregon State's Gregg Gottlieb and Gonzaga's Tommy Lloyd were mentioned, as well as mid-major coaches like Eastern Washington's Jim Hayford and Weber State's Randy Rahe (though don't know if Portland is a step enough for them to leave their current posts), but the name I like the most? Former Blazer legend Terry Porter, who still resides in Portland. Yes, he doesn't have the experience, but they need flash and a name to bring some attention to this program. There could be some growing pains in the first couple of years, but Porter is the kind of big name, high risk, high reward hire that could be a big boost to a program that has remained synonymous with anonymity under Reveno.</div>
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<b>Santa Clara Broncos</b></div>
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<b>Last year: </b></div>
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11-20 overall, 7-11 in WCC play (5th in conference). 7th in conference in offensive efficiency. 10th in defensive efficiency. Ranked 245th in Ken Pom ratings.</div>
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<b>The previous coach: </b></div>
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Kerry Keating. Coached 9 years at Santa Clara. Total record 139-159. Best season: 2013 where they went 26-12 overall with a 9-7 mark in conference play and won the 2013 CBI championship and were ranked 73rd according to Ken Pom. Worst season: 2012 where they went 8-22 and went 0-16 in WCC play and were ranked 283rd according to Ken Pom.</div>
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<b>Why Keating is gone:</b></div>
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Keating had big shoes to fill when the administration pushed out long-time head coach Dick Davey to hire Keating, a former UCLA assistant under Ben Howland. Keating's tenure could be one characterized by some massive highs, but mostly lows. In terms of the highs, he did have two 20-plus win seasons and won a CIT tournament in 2011 and a CBI championship in 2013. He also produced one of the conference's most dynamic players in Kevin Foster. But when you take those two 20-plus win seasons out of the equation, his resume looks a heck of a lot more pedestrian: no winning seasons beyond those two years, and his highest win total in conference play was 9 (and this includes those two seasons). At the end of the day, one has to look at what's more predominant, and it was obvious mediocrity was more common in his tenure than really lasting success.</div>
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<b>Why this job is enticing:</b></div>
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Though most people don't realize it, Santa Clara has money and a sterling reputation as a school. The school's endowment is third-highest in conference, behind only BYU and Pepperdine. Furthermore, the school is ranked as one of the best academic institutions in the West Coast. If you take a look at their campus, it is beautiful and rivals bigger and more popular neighbors in the Bay Area such as Stanford in Palo Alto and California in Berkeley. Santa Clara has a lot of amenities to offer to make it a hotbed for recruits who may not be getting looked at bigger school in the West Coast.</div>
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Furthermore, the Broncos have some great basketball tradition. This is a school that has produced talent such as Kurt Rambis and more recently Steve Nash. The Leavey Center is one of the nicest venues in the WCC and can get absolutely rocking during big games. Santa Clara really is a sleeping giant when it comes to basketball and it could just take the right coach to channel all these campus and basketball factors to make it a player again in the WCC scene.</div>
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<b>Why this job is difficult:</b></div>
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It is common to see many schools in the WCC leverage athletics to entice students to come to their school. Gonzaga is a prime example, utilizing their basketball success to lure students to come to a school that they may otherwise overlook. Santa Clara as a university doesn't seem to care about utilizing athletics to gain attention because they don't need to. Look at their school and they have so much to offer that they don't need a good basketball program to attract potential students. This a great sign for the school, but it makes things difficult for their athletic program since it is common to see student apathy with their basketball team. When I lived in San Jose, I attended many Bronco games, and I was appalled how sparsely attended they were beyond the Gonzaga and sometimes San Francisco and St. Mary's games (local Bay Area rivals). And it's not just student apathy, but the community's lukewarm attitude as well. It would not be surprising if the D-League's Santa Cruz Warriors had a higher attendance than the Broncos. If a D-League team is getting higher attendance than your school, it may be a sign that you're not really striking a chord with your community, as often has been the case with the Broncos the past few years.</div>
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<b>Who do the Broncos need?</b></div>
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Unlike Portland, which needs flash, I think the Broncos need someone who has legitimate coaching chops. They tried to get flash in Keating with his UCLA ties, but that didn't prove to be very successful. <a href="http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/ncaab/asu/2016/03/21/former-asu-coach-herb-sendek-meets-santa-clara-officials/82100968/">Herb Sendek, the former Arizona and NC State coach, was reported to have met with the Broncos last week according to AZ Central.com</a> and he would be the perfect candidate to build something viable for the Broncos. He's a proven coach, he's proven he can win and recruit in the West Coast, and he's a big enough name to compete with Mark Few, Randy Bennett and Dave Rose in WCC coaching circles. The big question though is whether the Broncos will "pony up" the money to hire Sendek or someone of his caliber, as their patience with Keating didn't exactly show that a "winning" basketball program was a major priority at the university.</div>
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<b>San Francisco Dons</b></div>
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<b>Last year:</b></div>
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15-15 overall, 8-10 in WCC play (4th in conference). 5th in conference in offensive efficiency. 7th in defensive efficiency. Ranked 194th in Ken Pom ratings.</div>
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<b>The previous coach:</b></div>
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Rex Walters. Coached 8 years at San Francisco. 127-127 overall record. Best season: 2014 where they went 21-12 and 13-5 in conference (made CIT) and ranked 90th in Ken Pom ratings. Worst season: 2009 where they went 11-19, 3-11 in conference and were ranked 255th according to Ken Pom.</div>
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<b>Why Walters is gone:</b></div>
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It's amazing to see this job open because Walters seemed like he was doing a good job on the Hill, especially considering where the program was at when he took over. The program stagnated under former Arizona assistant and Louisiana Lafayette Head Coach Jessie Evans, and there was a whole swirl of controversy surrounding Evans' firing mid-season and the temporary hiring of Eddie Sutton (who pretty much took the job to get his 1,000th career win). Walters seemed to inject some new life into the program, and he had some successful years. In 2014, they were a couple of plays away from upsetting BYU in the WCC semifinals, and the 13 wins in conference that year was the most of anyone on this list by far (and even more impressive since it was when BYU was in conference while Reveno's 10-win year was without the Cougars).</div>
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But, while the .500 record isn't horrible by any means, <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/collegesports/article/Rex-Walters-out-as-USF-basketball-coach-6879872.php">Walters was always mired in player issues </a>in his time with the Dons. He had countless players transfer from the program in his tenure (<a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/sports/ci_25255836/since-rex-walters-became-coach-at-usf-21">two years ago it was already at 21</a> and that number went up since then, though I can't confirm how many exactly), and a controversial story involving <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjzhv-exeLLAhXEk4MKHdqUBC8QqQIIJSgAMAM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fcollegebasketball.nbcsports.com%2F2013%2F11%2F29%2Fphysical-altercation-led-to-san-francisco-pg-cody-doolins-departure%2F&usg=AFQjCNHFZHXgGu0PGbGbQqY_04OMFiLe0w&sig2=1SSJXZsT1eRyq5Jta9h43Q&bvm=bv.117868183,d.amc">former 3-year starting point guard Cody Doolin being forced to fight other players in practice by coaches</a> (Walters especially) seemed to haunt him despite some on-court success. Walters seemed to bring out the most of his teams on the court, but off of it, his antics appeared to be too "Mike Rice-ish" and a .500 record simply isn't enough for an administration to condone anything close to that behavior (even if it wasn't full-blown Mike Rice-style). I'm guessing the administration decided to end his tenure before they hit completely bottom, which seemed likely next year with only 1 returning player.</div>
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<b>Why this job is enticing:</b></div>
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No school in the WCC (Gonzaga and BYU included) can boast what USF has: two national championships. They also have a history of producing hall of fame players (Bill Russell, KC Jones) and have a campus located in the heart of San Francisco. The Dons also have a passionate fan base and booster and alumni who are willing to do what is necessary to put a successful product on the court (though this got them into trouble in the 80's). Portland suffers from anonymity. Santa Clara suffers from apathy. San Francisco doesn't have those issues, for even with the Warriors in nearby Oakland and the Bears in Berkeley, the Dons are always going to have a portion in the SF Chronicle simply due to the fact that they won two national championships in the 1950's. There's a lot of city pride in this college program, even if the star isn't as bright as it once was decades ago.</div>
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<b>Why this job is difficult:</b></div>
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It could be said that Dons alumni and fans have an unrealistic expectation of where this program should be. Walters, player issues aside, seemed to have them in a good competitive place. They were a tough-out for the top tier teams on an annual basis, and looked to be clearly above some of the lower-tier teams in terms of present and future outlook. But, in all honesty, that doesn't seem to be enough for Dons fans and alumni. This is a city that is used to winners like the Niners, Giants and Warriors. This is a program that produced hall of famers. This is school that won two national championships. I am sure that Gonzaga and BYU and St. Mary's (especially this last one since St. Mary's for the longest time seemed to be the little brother to USF in both athletic and academic reputation until Bennett arrived) continuously being better than them gnaws at their pride immensely. That doesn't make things easy for any coach to build success, especially when the resources aren't what they once were and the Dons' location in a major sports market where it is hard to generate fan base beyond the hardcore nostalgic types or alums. </div>
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<b>Who do the Dons need?</b></div>
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Steve Lavin is being talked about as the potential replacement for Walters. To be fair, every time a Dons coach is fired, Lavin is the first name mentioned. And we get it. His dad, Cap, was former player for the Dons in the 1950's who was inducted into the Dons Hall of Fame. And he grew up in the Bay Area, and always seemed more like a fit in the West Coast. But Lavin always seemed to turn the gig down, either seeking bigger, greener pastures (St. John's) or being content in his media lifestyle.</div>
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However, Lavin would be a huge boost to this program. He has coached at two major jobs and found some, though not lasting, success with both of them (UCLA and St. John's). He is charismatic and can bring in recruits who normally would go elsewhere. He has always had a strong relationship with players in his history as coach, and unlike Walters, who seemed more abrasive, or at the very least uncomfortable, with the media, would be able to handle the SF media scene with relative ease.</div>
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I know Lavin won't be easy. He's turned down the Dons job countless times before. But, he's not a head coach (nor going to be one) at a major school and he's announcing Big East games on Fox, not exactly the limelight he once had at ESPN. Let's face it. USF needs Lavin sure, but Lavin also needs USF too more than ever before. A successful turnaround and Lavin could cement his uneven legacy in college basketball on a positive note.</div>
Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-51221514515204940152014-05-31T12:49:00.000-07:002014-05-31T12:52:52.317-07:00Transfer Tape: Desmond Simmons, 6-7, 225 pounds, St. Mary's (via Washington)<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/97kSV6ApYV0" width="480"></iframe><br />
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As with most teams in the college basketball universe, many teams in the WCC will be experiencing a plethora of incoming transfers this upcoming year. Thanks to the "senior rule" (where transfers do not have to sit out a year if they already have their degree), it is becoming more enticing for squads to get that "free agent" for a year to help boost their team's chances for a NCAA Tournament berth for the upcoming season. The big squads that will be reliant on some big-time transfers are the usual suspects like Gonzaga (who will be depending on Kentucky transfer Kyle Wiltjer and USC transfer Byron Wesley) and San Francisco (who will be relying on a plethora of transfers that are too many to count), but St. Mary's is a surprising squad that will be more transfer-heavy than usual. One of the more interesting players they bring to campus this fall is Desmond Simmons, a local Bay Area kid from Vallejo, California (a city that produced talent like DeMarcus Nelson and MLB great CC Sabathia) who went to Salesian High School, but ended up playing for a talent-stacked Washington Husky squad for three seasons. Now a senior, Simmons has returned to the Bay Area to play for Randy Bennett, hoping to not only help the Gaels return to the NCAA Tournament after missing out last season, but also to experience his first NCAA Tournament game as well (the Huskies never went to the Tournament in his time there despite playing with such highly-touted players like CJ Wilcox, Terrence Ross, Tony Wroten, and Abdul Gaddy).<br />
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If you watched the video above from Simmons' time with Drew Gooden's Soliders AAU team based out of the Bay Area, its obvious that Simmons brings athleticism to this Gaels squad. While the Gaels have had their fair share of athletic forwards in Bennett's time there (Diamon Simpson being the most prime example), Simmons may be one of the most athletic players to make his way to Moraga. At 6-7, 225 pounds, Simmons has the potential to play in both the post and the wing, and his combo ability should help out post centerpiece Brad Waldow, who while a talented offensive player, has struggled on the defensive end against more athletic and talented post players. While Beau Levesque, the player Simmons most likely will be replacing in the rotation, was extremely talented as a shooter and defensive rebounder, Levesque also struggled physically against bigger power forwards, as his offensive rebounding rate was meager at 7.7 percent. Look at the three year numbers for Simmons in his time at Washington, playing in a more talent-heavy roster, and in a more competitive conference (Pac-12).<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin50SkPhArpFHNSFzzBn0uf3FjMQZYhbV6JDK1ijln0ClrXp6ddg2_DvycHUTdO-sEfibuJ2AtOm3J600gkEpCMwme6p9ZeoPZUP4k_TG1k5sxDjjiP6xPr6AGU6vxXaGPHLbEocJtiAAP/s1600/Screenshot+2014-05-31+at+1.51.09+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin50SkPhArpFHNSFzzBn0uf3FjMQZYhbV6JDK1ijln0ClrXp6ddg2_DvycHUTdO-sEfibuJ2AtOm3J600gkEpCMwme6p9ZeoPZUP4k_TG1k5sxDjjiP6xPr6AGU6vxXaGPHLbEocJtiAAP/s1600/Screenshot+2014-05-31+at+1.51.09+PM.png" height="156" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Via KenPom.com</td></tr>
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Though his offensive rebounding rates went down in his last year there, his offensive rebounding rate average is 11.1 percent, which is a significant upgrade over Levesque. Add that with already good offensive rebounders on the squad like Garrett Jackson (16.7 in 21 percent minutes played), Matt Hodgson (13.1 in 25 percent minutes played) and Waldow (13.7 percent last year) and Simmons should make stronger an already good offensive rebounding Gael squad from a year ago (35.8 percent offensive rebounding rate, 54th in the nation).<br />
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Another area which could be key to Simmons' contributing to the Gaels squad will be his effectiveness on defense, which has not been a strength of the Gaels in Bennett's time there. While Bennett has succeeded with strong-shooting, very good offensive-oriented squads, defensively, they have left a little to be desired. After ranking 46th in the nation in eFG percentage allowed in the 2009-2010 season, the Gaels have only cracked the Top-150 in eFG percentage allowed once since (2012-2013). Their main struggles as a team centers around giving up high 3-point percentages (165th, 296th, 274th and 300th in opposing 3P % the past four season), which is alarming considering they usually rank low when it comes to opposing 3-point shots allowed (they've been in the top-10 in fewest 3-pointers allowed 5 out of the past 6 years). One of the main issues is that they haven't had the kind of athleticism in the perimeter or post to defend against that shot. Teams can hurt the Gaels with both on-ball and off-ball screens to free shooters on the perimeter, because the Gaels defenders aren't strong or quick enough to go through or play around the screens quick enough to properly defend the shot. Add that with Bennett's penchant for playing a shallow rotation, and the fatigue that sets in also has had an effect in terms of perimeter players losing their man (they are mostly a man-to-man based squad under Bennett) and giving up easy three point shots.<br />
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Simmons however could buck that trend. He's long enough to contest three-point shots, and he has the speed to play adequate defense on the perimeter and the strength to go through screens and not allow space for the three pointer. Furthermore, Simmons comes from a defensive system where they excelled in defending against the the three point shot. Last season, the Huskies ranked 52nd in the nation in 3 point percentage allowed and two years ago when they won the Pac-12 regular season title, they ranked 94th in the nation. While Simmons wasn't the sole culprit (Lorenzo Romar is known for recruiting athletic wings), the fact that he is been in that kind of defensive system and had the ability to play in it should be a huge boost to a Gaels program that has traditionally struggled in such an area.<br />
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The biggest question though is how Simmons' offensive game will transition to minutes in Bennett's rotation. <a href="http://catholiccoasthoops.blogspot.com/2014/01/data-sheet-analysis-look-at-how-wcc.html">As written in a post earlier in January</a>, Bennett is not known for utilizing his bench much, and though this Gaels team will be deeper athletically in years past thanks to the slew of transfers, it is obvious that Bennett prefers a shallow rotation in comparison to most coaches in the WCC. It is also seen that Bennett prefers to have at least one post player who is able to step back and shoot the 3 pointer, and it is yet to be seen that Simmons has the shooting ability to fit into what the Gaels want to do offensively. Waldow is primarily a post player (only 1 3-point shot last season), and Simmons resembles the same kind of profile, as he only took 9 three point shots a year ago, a career low (he took 27 his freshman year). To make matters worse, Simmons overall shooting is pretty mediocre as well, as he sported an eFG percentage of 44.7, which was a career high. Considering Levesque had an eFG percentage of 49.2 percent last year, it doesn't bode well that Simmons is exactly the type of 4 player that Bennett has typically played or wanted for his offensive system (which is primarily a 4-out style of offense).<br />
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But, even though he is not strong as a shooter, Simmons has gone a long way to develop his offensive game. His offensive rating of 104.4 was better than Hodgson (93.4) or Jackson (98.2) a year ago and against better competition (4th best conference in comparison to 9th best conference according to KenPom). And, Simmons is not a player who needs the ball in his hands to succeed offensively either, as his usage rate of 15.1 percent last year makes him more a complimentary piece on the offensive end, which is what the Gaels really need considering their main scoring option will again be Waldow next season. So, even though Simmons may not fit the mold characteristic of 4-position players that have come through Bennett's system in years past, he is not a ball-killer kind of player (i.e. he doesn't hog it and need a lot of possessions to be effectively offensively), and if he can put up similar offensive efficiency to what he did in Washington, that might be good enough for Bennett to keep Simmons in the rotation, especially considering the upside he can bring to St. Mary's defensively.<br />
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It will be interesting to see how Simmons fits in the Gaels rotation, <a href="http://westcoastconvo.com/2014/05/28/saint-marys-gaels-rebuilding-reloading/">a team that initially looked to be in rebuilding mode until they landed high profile transfers such as Simmons and Stanford guard Aaron Bright</a>. While Simmons may not be as high profile as some incoming WCC transfers (such as Wiltjer or Wesley for Gonzaga), he could be a complimentary piece that could help the Gaels bounce back after such a disappointing finish last season. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see how Simmons affects Bennett's recruiting in the future, as Simmons is very atypical of what Bennett has traditionally brought to Moraga in terms of profile and athleticism. If Simmons succeeds with the Gaels, and helps St. Mary's to another tournament berth, it could result in the addition of more higher-profile and athletic wing players to the Gaels program, not only as transfers, but perhaps as incoming freshmen as well.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-66481447920362549852014-05-30T09:50:00.000-07:002014-05-30T09:55:55.321-07:00Recruit Report: Domantas Sabonis, PF, 6-11, 200 pounds, Gonzaga Commit<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/kfplY35NIho" width="480"></iframe><br />
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Though it's been almost a couple of months since he has signed, no player has been more fascinating this recruiting class than <a href="http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Domantas-Sabonis-62889/">Domantas Sabonis</a>, a power forward prospect from Lithuania. Sabonis comes with all <a href="http://www.slipperstillfits.com/2014/4/17/5625518/done-deal-domantas-sabonis-signs-with-gonzaga">kinds of fanfare already</a>, as he is long, lanky athletic power forward who arrives to Gonzaga with an impressive basketball pedigree. Let's take a look at why Sabonis should be highly anticipated by Zag and WCC fans this upcoming season.<br />
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<b>Solid International Experience</b><br />
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Sabonis has been a long-time product of the Lithuanian national basketball program, a major power in the FIBA universe. Remember, this is a country that has recently produced NBA players like Linas Kleiza, Donatas Montiejunas and Jonas Valanciunas. Additionally, as a national program, the Lithuanian team earned the silver medal in the 2013 FIBA EuroBasket tournament, and the bronze medal in the 2010 FIBA World Cup in Turkey. The fact that Sabonis is involved in such a international powerhouse program means that he has had the proper development in his younger years, especially in comparison to other national basketball programs, where coaching and development is a little more uneven.<br />
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As for his actual playing experience at the international level, Sabonis has excelled representing Lithuania on the court. He averaged 14.1 points per game 14.4 rebounds per game and 2.6 assists per game for Lithuania in the 2012 U-16 FIBA World Championship (the team finished 11th), and 14 points, 11.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game for Lithuania in the 2013 U-18 FIBA World Championship (his rebounding mark was a high for any player in the tournament). In terms of international competition, not only has Sabonis faced some of the world's best young talent, he has displayed he can excel against the top international talent at his age level as well.<br />
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But, the international experience doesn't stop there, as like many international talent who end up playing in college in the United States, Sabonis played with a competitive international club last season (you can play for a club as long as you do not sign a professional contract; this is touchy since some try to test how much compensation they can receive, as was the case with <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=6000134">Kentucky recruit Enes Kanter</a>, who didn't sign a professional contract, but earned more money playing than allowable by the NCAA and lost his amateur status and didn't play a minute for the Wildcats). Last year,<a href="http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=004485"> Sabonis played for Unicaja Malaga</a>, one of the top Spanish teams in the ACB league (a league Ricky Rubio also played for before coming to the NBA) that also qualified for the Euroleague (basketball's answer to the Champions League in Soccer). While Sabonis did not play much (he played 10.5 minutes per game in ACB league action and 9.3 minutes in Euroleague play), he was one of the youngest players in the league in general (playing mostly as a 17-year-old) and earned rave reviews from coaches and players for his work ethic and development in his time with Unicaja Malaga. Watch the video below to see some interesting interviews with coaches and players about Sabonis (many interviews are in Spanish, but there are some English ones too).<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/QrzlN1PdWBA" width="420"></iframe>
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Furthermore, one of the more endearing traits of international coaching and play is their willingness to "experiment" with young players in terms of positions. Unlike in the United States, where players are primarily placed at a position early on depending on their size and athleticism, Europe is known for having players play at multiple positions regardless of height or size. This has led to taller players displaying skills that is more expected of perimeter players (such as Dirk Nowitzki for example). It sounds like the coaching staff for Unicaja Malaga was willing to try Sabonis out in different positions to improve his development as an overall player, according to<a href="http://www.eurohopes.com/player/1533/domantas-sabonis/"> this report by Eurohope</a>s, a Euroleague scouting site. Here is a quote from the writer of the report:<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #515151; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; text-align: justify;"><i><b>"After dominating European Championship U16 as a clear-cut up-front player, Unicaja’s coaching staff has decided to transfer him into tweener, so not surprisingly that in Rome Sabonis is seeing his playing time mostly at SF spot in Unicaja’s packed with sized lineup."</b></i></span></blockquote>
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For Gonzaga, this bodes well considering that small forward may be a position of need for the Zags, and they should be in good shape in the post with center Przemek Karnowski returning, and Kentucky transfer power forward Kyle Wiltjer being eligible right away. It is certainly in the realm of possibility that Few could throw out a huge front line with Sabonis at the 3, Wiltjer at 4 and Karnowski at 5. Now, whether or not Few would employ such a lineup on a regular basis is to be determined, but from the report listed above, it seems like Sabonis has worked on playing at the small forward position in his time in Europe, and this should give him a chance to earn minutes and be an impact player immediately for the Zags.<br />
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<b>Impressive Basketball Lineage and Skills</b><br />
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Another aspect that should entice Northwest WCC basketball fans is the fact that Sabonis is the son of Arvydas, the legendary Lithuanian player who dominated in his time with the Soviet Union basketball squad and carved out an impressive career with the Portland Trailblazers. While his son Domantas doesn't have the size of Arvydas (Sabonis was a bear literally speaking at 7-3 and 279 pounds) and it is to be determined if he has the overall skill prowess of his father (Arvydas would constantly dazzle fans with his soft shooting touch and excellent passing skills), he does come to the United States at a much younger age (Arvydas was 31 when he came to the NBA).<br />
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While some may not agree, basketball pedigree is an important trait that bodes well for player success. Having a father who played at a high level usually results in some of those skills and "instincts" being passed down to the younger generation. The Zags saw this with David Stockton, who while not physically gifted, inherited the excellent passing skills from his father and hall of famer John. Furthermore, the WCC has seen many talented players who came from NBA families carve out good careers at the college level including Luke Sikma of Portland (son of Jack who played for the Sonics), Austin Daye of Gonzaga (son of Darren who played for the Celtics) and Mychel Thompson of Pepperdine (son of Mychal Thompson who played for the Blazers and Lakers). While Sabonis will obviously have the help of the coaching staff to aid his development at Gonzaga in preparation for the next level, having his father's input most likely will also be key in terms of adjusting to life and basketball play in the United States.<br />
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But, while having a NBA father has some intrinsic value, it also is a good sign physically as well, as players usually inherit many of the physical gifts of their fathers. That seems to be the case with Sabonis, as he is a tall athletic player and has the same excellent footwork, rebounding skills and tenacity that was characteristic of his father. If you watch the video below, Sabonis finishes especially well at the rim, and is able to display a flurry of post moves and drives that constantly results in easy points. Furthermore, he is able to get rebounds at a good rate, and isn't pushed out easily by opposing players. If there was one quality that was endearing about Arvydas, it was his toughness, strength and tenacity in the paint that complemented his dazzling passing and ballhandling skills. While the strength isn't totally there yet, it seems like Domantas has the motor and the toughness to handle himself at the college level. As he continues to develop muscle strength and fill into his body, it is possible that he could garner the strength down the road as a player that could resemble similarly to his father. Check out the video below and see how Domantas as a 16-year-old held his own and then some in International competition for Lithuania.<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/V7weIKskg10" width="480"></iframe>
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<b>What CCH Overall Thinks of Sabonis</b><br />
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There have been a lot of ballyhooed recruits that I have gotten excited about at Gonzaga. Daye came in with an impressive high school pedigree and lofty recruiting rankings. Karnowski was known for his international experience as well as his participation in the Nike Hoop Summit, which in my opinion, is the best high school showcase currently (I think its more competitive than the McDonald's All American Classic or Jordan Brand Classic). Kevin Pangos got on the map for holding his own against future Top-3 pick Andrew Wiggins in Canada. But Sabonis could possibly top all of them in my anticipation of him simply based on his physical skills, international experience and basketball pedigree. I can't remember a player from Gonzaga who had this much development at such a young age, and faced so much elite competition as well before they even set foot in Spokane. Yes, he hasn't gotten the hype that Daye or even current Top-50 recruit Josh Perkins received in the Recruiting media, but Sabonis probably went under the radar because I'm sure many didn't think he was going to college initially. I'm sure many felt that Sabonis would play for Unicaja Malaga for a couple of more years and then make the jump to the NBA like most international players. Instead, Gonzaga gets an interesting player who could potentially have an impact on an even more loaded squad next season.<br />
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And I'm not alone in this feeling. <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24542942/ten-thoughts-from-nike-eybl-sacramento">Here is what Jeff Borzello of CBS Sports said in a piece</a> that mentioned that Domantas Sabonis will have an impact for the Zags next season:<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20.25px;"><i><b><span style="font-family: inherit;">"One person that watched Sabonis in the past said he would have been a McDonald's All-American had he played in the United States. Sabonis is only 17, but will be relied upon right off the bat for Mark Few and the Bulldogs."</span></b></i></span></blockquote>
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As stated before, it will be interesting to see how Mark Few will utilize Sabonis considering that Karnowski and Wiltjer are more experienced at the college level and will be more established with Few's philosophy in comparison (Karnowski will be in his third year at Gonzaga and Wiltjer had a year in the program after sitting out due to transfer rules). But that being said, Sabonis has tremendous upside and potential, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him making a strong impact and making a name for himself in the college game in his first season with the Zags despite how loaded this Gonzaga team already is.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-29797421815400654872014-05-29T22:45:00.000-07:002014-05-29T22:49:25.252-07:00Mike Dunlap, the 1-1-3 Zone, and a Different Approach to LMU Basketball<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mike Dunlap and his 1-1-3 matchup zone will bring a new brand of basketball to the Lions</td></tr>
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If there was one coaching hire that probably didn't get as much praise as it should, it had to be LMU's decision to hire Mike Dunlap. While the early nature of the hire (they literally hired Dunlap a day after they decided not to renew Max Good's contract; though to be truthful, Good was dead-man walking from the middle of the WCC season on) probably hurt publicity (didn't stick out among all the other "bigger hires"), Dunlap's hire could be an under-the-radar move that could provide a spark for a program that has failed to get much going since their Paul Westhead "Run and Gun" days.<br />
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First off, Dunlap's pedigree is impressive, though I think his recent NBA stint with Charlotte unfortunately is what lingers on the minds of the most common basketball fan. Yes, <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHA/2013.html">the Bobcats were not good in 2012-2013</a> as they finished 21-61 and last in SRS and defensive rating (-9.29 and 111.5, respectively) and second-to-last in offensive rating (101.5). Yes, he was fired after only one season, and the Bobcats significantly<a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHA/2014.html"> improved this year</a> in his absence (they went 43-39 and made the playoffs for only the second time in franchise history). But coaching in the NBA is a difficult tight-rope to walk. We have seen all the time coaches find success in the NBA only to fail in college and vice versa. Sure, there are success stories of coaches who managed to do both (Larry Brown for example), but evidence shows that some coaches are meant for the college or the professional game and not necessarily both.<br />
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Dunlap falls into the latter category because he is at the heart a "program builder". While critics of the hire point to Dunlap's failings in the NBA, they fail to recognize his immense success with Metro State, a commuter school in Denver that has no football team in the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference. At Metro State, Dunlap tallied a 248-50 record with two Division II national championships, and four DII Final Four appearances. Those kinds of numbers at any level are incredible, and to do it with challenging circumstances (less recruiting budget, less tradition and fan fare in a primarily pro sport metro area) only makes it more impressive. As evidenced by Mark Few at Gonzaga and Randy Bennett at St. Mary's (and to some extent Rex Walters at USF), in order to be a successful program in the WCC, a coach needs to be in it for the long haul and really build things from the ground up. Dunlap has done that before with Metro State and with even lesser resources than what Few and Bennett had when they came into their positions.<br />
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In addition to being a "program builder", Dunlap brings in an identity as a defensive-oriented coach, something that is quite antagonistic with the history of LMU basketball. Since the days of Westhead, the Lions have been known for offense and points, and that is something LMU fans have come to expect to varying levels of success. If there was a positive of the Good-era at LMU, it was that he brought in talented players who could light it up on the offensive end. Anthony Ireland and Drew Viney were Good recruits who excelled as offensive-oriented players who could entertain fans and put points on the board. Good's teams ranked in the top-200 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom.com 4 out of his 6 years, and ranked in the top-120 in tempo in 4 out of 6 years as well (including Top-50 in 2010 and last season). Good wanted his Lions to play fast, play loose and focus on putting the ball in the basket. In an offensive-oriented conference, his philosophy seemed pretty in-line with many other programs in the WCC (the conference ranked 6th in offensive efficiency last season).<br />
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But being similar doesn't always bode well for success. Good only produced two winning seasons (2010 and 2012) in his time at LMU and while injuries did ravage his Lions throughout his career, his teams' struggles on defense always compounded things as well. Good's teams ranked in the Top-150 in defensive efficiency only twice in his career (2012 and 2013), and last year, despite a promising start which included an upset of BYU at home, the Lions struggled on the defensive end, finishing with an adjusted defensive rating of 112.4 in conference (9th) and 106.3 for the overall year (202nd in the nation). Good's teams may have been entertaining at times and showed flashes of brilliance (their win against BYU last season in Los Angeles was a thing of beauty), but it was obvious that the team needed a new philosophy and fresh face to help turn things around for a once proud program. (S<a href="http://espn.go.com/30for30/film?page=guru-of-go">eriously, how many WCC schools have 30 for 30's that feature them</a>?)<br />
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Dunlap at the very least brings something different. His most recent college experience was at St. John's where he served as an assistant for the Red Storm under Steve Lavin. Dunlap found success as somewhat of a defensive coordinator for Lavin, much in the vein of Tom Thibodeau for Doc Rivers during the Boston Celtics' 2008 title campaign. With Dunlap's expertise, the Red Storm primarily applied a 1-1-3 matchup zone, a defense that he developed from his days as an assistant at Arizona (Dunlap was an assistant in 2008-2009), where Lute Olson regularly employed the defense with his athletic guards. The 1-1-3 matchup zone basically is a combo defense that takes the 2-3 zone and meshes it with some man-to-man principles. The result is a defense that allows teams to keep the "zone defense" identity that they wish, while at the same time allowing them to apply more pressure on defense without switching completely (most zone defenses struggle to create turnovers). The defense also has to potential to create a "junk defense" effect, as it confuses defenses and contains teams that heavily rely on one perimeter player that creates most of the offense.<br />
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At St. John's, the Red Storm found success on the defensive end employing Dunlap's 1-1-3 approach, especially in the 2010-2011 season. That year, the Red Storm ranked 45th in the nation in adjusted defensive rating at 95.2, and had a steal percentage of 12.3, 26th best in the nation. The result was a 21-12 record and their first NCAA Tournament since the Mike Jarvis days (shout out to Ron Artest and Erick Barkley!) despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the nation (10th hardest according to Ken Pom).<br />
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So how does the 1-1-3 matchup zone work? Here is basic look at how the defense initially sets:<br />
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As you can see, the defense looks like a 2-3 zone below the free throw line, but things get different once the ball swings to the perimeter to one of the wings. Let's say the point guard passes it to the right wing to the 2 man. Here's is how the defense rotates:</div>
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<a href="http://www.breakthroughbasketball.com/defense/graphics/OlsonDefense2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.breakthroughbasketball.com/defense/graphics/OlsonDefense2.png" /></a></div>
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This isn't a "Box and 1" where the 1 stays on the opposing 1. Instead, the 1 sags to the free throw line on the left elbow on the pass to the wing (to take away skip pass opportunities), and the two and three swarm to pressure the opposing two. In many ways, that is one of the benefits of the 1-1-3: it causes a lot of pressure on the offense with double-teams and traps (characteristic of pressure man-to-man defenses), while preventing penetration and easy passes in the post (characteristic of traditional zone defenses).</div>
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In 2011 early in the season with Dunlap still on staff, the Red Storm played Arizona in the 2K Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden (pretty much a home game for the Red Storm). Let's see how the first possession played out as they employed their 1-1-3 zone defense</div>
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As you can see, the Red Storm are in their 1-1-3 set while Arizona is in a 4-out set themselves. The guard on the opposite end is on the wing, while two guys are taking away the post. Let's see how the defense reacts when the ball is swung over to the other side.</div>
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As the ball is swung to the post player, the zone forces him into the corner, which for him is not a high-percentage shot and out of his comfort zone. The defense is looking to trap, and they are taking away the pass into the middle at the free throw line as well. Because of the angle, the skip pass would be difficult as well, and thus, the only option for the Wildcat post player is to shoot the jump shot or pass it back out to the wing (which he does).</div>
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After a couple of passes, the ball comes back to the same player, who pretty much receives the ball in the same position. This time he has a 1-on-1 matchup, and feels comfortable with the shot. That being said, the athleticism of the defender (the 1-1-3 succeeds with athletic players, not necessarily size) catches no. 14 for Arizona by surprise.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMdERuJvmedR99iOROPsWmjLunKXZhsvb2kMUpblkiOR31gOiKXo7WSkXAG2_Ltc78FCS3SxCIImzMjCfmQbcQkkbeuXqBF9yQfSD6cdGSliPky53P0-xwKY8U1cfSwt87960cbvN9vWaI/s1600/Screenshot+2014-05-30+at+12.04.28+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMdERuJvmedR99iOROPsWmjLunKXZhsvb2kMUpblkiOR31gOiKXo7WSkXAG2_Ltc78FCS3SxCIImzMjCfmQbcQkkbeuXqBF9yQfSD6cdGSliPky53P0-xwKY8U1cfSwt87960cbvN9vWaI/s1600/Screenshot+2014-05-30+at+12.04.28+AM.png" height="218" width="400" /></a></div>
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The Red Storm get him to shoot this time, and not only is he forced to take a difficult shot, but it is blocked as well. Furthermore, there is nobody in the post when he takes the shot. Arizona is backed out to the perimeter, and though they crash and get the rebound, it does set the Red Storm up well for the rebounding position (lack of size hurt the Red Storm in rebounding, as they finished 342nd in the nation in offensive rebounds allowed percentage that year). On the same position after getting the rebound, the Wildcats try to set it up on the other side and look to get a better shot to their player in the block.</div>
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If you're an Arizona fan, this looks like a better scenario. The post player is in the block and looks open as well. The wing player shot fakes and looks to pass it down to that seemingly open player. But the benefit of the 1-1-3 is that it is established on pressure and producing turnovers, and to do that, the players need to be ready to swarm and entice passes to which they can get the steal or force the turnover. That is the case here: no. 4 (player in the middle of the key for St. John's) is giving the look that he is fronting 44 for Arizona in the post. But, by feigning this coverage, he is setting up to pounce on the Arizona post player who thinks he is going to have a high percentage shot when in reality, he is going to be jumped on by the Red Storm defense. Which results in...</div>
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no. 4 for St. John's pouncing on the player, denying and batting the ball off the Arizona player and out of bounds for the turnover. And just on that first possession, the Red Storm, through their 1-1-3 matchup zone are proving to the Wildcats that shots aren't going to come easy, and that the Red Storm not only have speed on the perimeter on defense, but in the post as well (to make up for their lack of size).</div>
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Dunlap is an interesting character for sure. In the year off of coaching, he maintained a <a href="http://www.coachdunlap.com/blog.html">blog</a> and is well known for his appearances in coaching videos promoting his 1-1-3 matchup zone as well as writing articles on general coaching philosophy (in his 10 keys to practice, he advocates the use of clear water bottles so he knows how much water his players are drinking in practice). But, he has found success with the 1-1-3, especially at St. John's, as it caused turnovers and made up for teams that traditionally lacked size and depth (both problems the staff dealt with in his two seasons with the Red Storm). The same problems are most likely going to be true at LMU: he is going to have a tough time recruiting elite size to a WCC school (most WCC teams do), and it is going to take him a while to develop any depth with his roster (Good was around average as a coach when it came to bench minutes percentage, hovering around 30-32 percent in terms of bench minutes). His 1-1-3 philosophy on the defensive end will take advantage of the players that have traditionally come through the Lions program (usually smaller, but athletic players), while also conserving their energy and getting maximum efficiency from them, especially on the defensive end.</div>
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It is going to be interesting to see the progression of the Lions under Dunlap. Traditionally, coaches have been more offensive-oriented in their time at LMU and focused on pushing the pace, not surprising considering that was the most exciting and successful basketball played at LMU. But, a more-defensive approach could be the shot in the arm this Lions program needs. It never really seemed to be a strength of Good's, and this kind of style would be a change of pace that could be a competitive advantage in a conference where most teams were average or below when it came to defensive efficiency (only Gonzaga and San Diego bucked this trend last season, and Gonzaga was flat out dominant thanks to Przemek Karnowski in the paint). While Westhead was available and would have been the most glamorous hire, Dunlap and his pedigree will help provide a distinct identity to this Lions program and could get them on their way to becoming a more legitimate squad in a WCC that is rising in terms of popularity as well as competitiveness.</div>
Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-78427422198401111592014-01-26T21:42:00.000-08:002014-01-26T21:46:25.090-08:00A Slower, Defensive-Approach Separates San Diego from the WCC Pack<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A defensive, slower approach by Bill Grier (arms apart above) has been a key reason why San Diego is a dangerous opponent for WCC teams</td></tr>
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No team generates more interest with me than the San Diego Toreros. They are 12-10 and 3-6 in conference, and according to Ken Pomeroy, they are most likely to finish the year hovering at .500 at 16-15 (with a projected 7-11 conference record). So, at the surface, there is nothing really to like about San Diego or really glean from them in a major fashion. Most fans think, "Oh, hey San Diego, they can surprise you, but when push comes to shove, they're just another WCC team that is fighting to avoid the cellar with Loyola Marymount, Santa Clara and Pacific." But, I think the Toreros are a team that WCC fans should take notice of for the remainder of the year<br />
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I am not here to say that San Diego is going to jettison to the top of the WCC standings. That being said, what I like about San Diego and coach Bill Grier is that he has the Toreros playing a style of ball that is remarkably different from most other teams in the conference. As typical of years past, most schools in the WCC prefer a more "offensive-oriented approach" and for good reason: they are pretty good at it. When it comes to Adjusted Offensive Efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy, four schools rank in the Top-50 (Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Francisco and BYU), two more rank in the Top-100 (Pacific at 89 and Pepperdine at 100) and two MORE rank within the Top-150 (Portland at 111 and Loyola Marymount at 123). As a conference, Ken Pomeroy rates the WCC as the fourth best conference in the nation when it comes to offensive efficiency at 108.1 (which is helped by a conference-wide 3 point percentage of 38.1 percent, best of any conference in the nation). This isn't 80's Big East basketball. The WCC is known for scoring, lots of it and in an efficient way, and that has been a primary reason why the WCC has achieved its highest conference ranking ever on KenPom.com at No. 9 (though I believe the Mountain West and Missouri Valley getting gutted due to conference re-alignment severely weakened those conferences, which were typically ahead of the WCC but now fell this season; but that's being nitpicky, as the WCC is the strongest its ever been top-to-bottom).<br />
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But, San Diego is a team that does not fit that "offensive-emphasis" mold. The Toreros rank last overall in Adjusted Offense in the conference ranking 183rd in the nation. In conference play, while they have played better, they still linger near the basement with a rating of 102.8, ninth-best in the conference play (ahead of only Loyola Marymount, who has struggled efficiency-wise after a strong start). While they do excel in the three-ball (they have the best three-point percentage in WCC play at 43.5 percent), they struggle inside the arc (9th best two-point percentage at 45.4 percent) and turn the ball over way too much (WCC high 20.2 percent turnover rate).<br />
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And yet, even though they rate as a pretty sub-par offensive team by WCC standards, the Toreros have been the most competitive team as of late, nearly knocking off Gonzaga on Thursday in Spokane, and upsetting Portland in the Rose City after the Pilots made national headlines with a 3 OT victory over a scorching BYU squad. They are nine points away from being 6-3 (with close single-digit losses to Pepperdine, USF and Gonzaga) rather than 3-6, and they suddenly look to be the kind of team that could ruin many WCC teams' postseason hopes. How are they doing it?<br />
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While you could credit it to a variety of factors, I think two major playing trends emerge: their slow tempo and defensive approach.<br />
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First off, San Diego is not the only squad in the WCC that plays at a slow tempo. St. Mary's has done this for quite some time under Bennett, and they also run a slow tempo to maximum offensive effectiveness (they rank second in offensive efficiency in conference despite playing the fourth-slowest tempo in conference play). Gonzaga, which originally started the year playing at a faster tempo, has slowed down considerably in conference play (third-slowest in conference), which has worked to their advantage in some games (BYU) and not so in others (San Diego). So, slowing it down and playing a more half-court approach isn't exactly ingenious or ground breaking on Grier's end, since many teams do it when they feel they lack depth or the faster perimeter players to do so. Furthermore, Grier's teams have typically played a slower tempo in his career at USD, as he has had only one team average over the 65 possession mark in his tenure at USD (the 2012 squad which averaged 66.1 possessions per game).<br />
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But San Diego has slowed it down considerably so, and that has worked to their advantage in many games. In two out of their last three games, the Toreros have played two sub-60 possession games (USF and Gonzaga). Both those games went down to the buzzer, as the Toreros lost by a buzzer beater to USF and they had a chance to tie at Gonzaga. For a team that lacks offensive consistency like the Toreros, shortening the game has proven to be a strong competitive equalizer for them, especially against better offensive teams (as was the case with USF). While they do have some talent in guard Johnny Dee and center Dennis Kramer, they do have some efficiency killers (Jito Kok may be the worst offensive player in the conference by far as evidenced by his 72.8 offensive rating) that'll keep them from being better than average overall. So, by limiting possessions and relying on the three point shot, the Toreros give themselves a fighting chance against the better teams in conference play. And it has worked, as the Toreros seem to be trending upward as a team, and still have valuable opportunities for possible upsets on the horizons with seven of their next nine games being at home (only St. Mary's looks to be the daunting one, and that could be tougher because the Gaels are in their element in slower-tempo games).<br />
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Contrast San Diego's approach with LMU, who has taken a higher-tempo approach to offense (second highest tempo at 69.2 in conference play). While the Toreros are 3-6 against primarily road-game loaded first half of the schedule, the Lions are 3-7 and have lost to conference leaders USF, St. Mary's and Gonzaga by double digits. While they did pull off the upset against BYU in their first conference game of the year, the higher tempo has exposed the Lions' poor offensive efficiency as a team, while the slower tempo has hid or at the very least minimized the Toreros' woes on the offensive end (remember, both teams rank 9th and 10th in conference play offensive efficiency). And how has this strategy of play affected to coaches' futures? Well, it looks like Grier may be on the way to finishing the season strong enough to merit another season, while Lions coach Max Good will have to do a lot to earn an extension at the end of the year.<br />
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So, tempo has been a key factor to the Toreros surprising success, though not the only key. The improved defense has also been a reason why the Toreros have also remained competitive, and since those two approaches complement each other nicely (defense and slow tempo) it's no surprise that they have transitioned to success on the court for San Diego. In terms of defense, numerically it's not all that impressive, as the Toreros' 110.7 defensive efficiency rating ranks seventh in conference play. That being said, their overall rating sits at 100.9, which is 108th best in the nation and the Toreros have had some really bad performances that have hurt their conference rating thus far (they gave up 1.31 points per possession in a 23 point loss at BYU). Going back to that rating though, the 100.9 mark, if the season ended today, would be the best mark for Grier since the 2009 season, when the Toreros finished with a defensive rating of 97.6, 77th best in the nation.<br />
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The mark is a nice wave of progression for Grier and the Toreros over the past couple of seasons. Grier made his mark as a defensive-coach as an assistant at Gonzaga, and he carried that in his first two years at the helm in San Diego. His first team, which went to the NCAA Tourney and upset UConn as a 13 seed, was a stout defensive squad as they ranked 49th in the nation in defensive efficiency at 95.9. However, after two seasons where his teams ranked in the Top-100 in defensive rating, they took huge steps in years three through five, as they posted mediocre defensive rating rankings of 162, 224 and 230, respectively. Suddenly, the strongest aspect of Grier's ability as a coach (the defensive side) looked to be a weakness after the initial wave of success.<br />
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However, Grier made one key hire after the 2011 season that has helped the Toreros defensively: he hired former LMU coach Rodney Tention as an assistant. Now, Tention was far from "good" as a coach at LMU. His 30-61 overall record looks bad in a variety of different lenses. But, Tention was a much better coach than people gave him credit for. For starters, Tention was actually a very decent defensive coach, and if you want to know why or how the Lions, despite being a 12-win team, came within a tip-in of beating an Adam Morrison-led Gonzaga team in the WCC Championship, the Lions' defense was the answer (remember, the Lions went 9-6 in conference play that year). In 2006, the Lions posted a defensive rating of 96.2, 60th best in the country, and in his second year, the Lions, though 13-18, still remained in the Top-100 in defensive rating at 93rd in the nation with a rating of 99.1. While things fell apart for them as a whole in 2008 (only six teams were worse overall than the Lions in 2008), Tention was actually a good defensive coach. The only problem was that he struggled to find consistency with his offense, and he opted for a style that didn't necessarily play to his teams' defensive strengths either (they ranked in the top-100 in terms of fastest tempo in his three years). And so, it made sense why things never worked out for Tention as the head man at LMU. Under Grier's staff though, Tention has seemed to help the Toreros and Grier find their mojo again on the defensive end. They have steadily improved the past couple of years, and I'm sure Tention's expertise on defense has meshed well with Grier's philosophy on defense and slowing it down (rather than speeding it up, as Tention did at LMU).<br />
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This season, the Toreros have the kind of squad that fits what Grier wants to do: slow it down, grind out opponents on the defensive end, have certain player (i.e. Gee) make some key shots, and keep games tight against opponents which may be more loaded than his San Diego squads. They still aren't as elite as his first-year squad, but it is obvious that they are making progress toward reaching that point. Tention's influence, though under the radar to most people, has been felt, especially when you look at the improvements in defensive ratings over the past three years. And, with this approach complementing their slow, half-court style, the Toreros remain different, an anomaly to what is typically seen from teams in the WCC.<br />
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In college basketball, different is good. Different is what worked for Princeton under Pete Carril, LMU under Paul Westhead and Arkansas under Nolan Richardson. And for Grier and San Diego, being different could give them a chance to replicate what they did in 2008 as soon as next season (though you never know come WCC tourney time).Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-2520722863914678092014-01-25T09:46:00.000-08:002014-01-25T09:47:38.118-08:00Recruit Report: Evan Fitzner, 6-10, 215 pounds, St. Mary's Commit<iframe width="500" height="281" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/BXWPi82Jpfk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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The first post player on the recruit report belongs to Evan Fitzner, a 6-10 forward from Francis Parker High School in San Diego. Fitzner signed with Randy Bennett's Gaels on October, 8th and he should bring an interesting profile and skill set to the Gaels in 2014-2015. He is long, athletic and has very good touch from outside the arc, the perfect kind of player to fit Bennett's "shooter-heavy" system.<br />
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Fitzner was mostly looking at schools on the West Coast, as he also received offers from Arizona State, California, Hawaii, Loyola Marymount, New Mexico, Northern Arizona, Oregon State, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, USC and Washington. Just judging by the four other WCC School offers, there was a high possibility that Fitzner was going to be playing in the WCC somewhere next season. That being said, it appears that his visit and the program in general convinced Fitzner to take his talents up north from San Diego to Moraga.<br />
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Let's take a look at some things about Fitzner.<br />
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<b>What they Are Saying About Fitzner</b><br />
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From <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/evaluation/_/id/143385/evan-fitzner">ESPN.com</a> (71 rating, 3 star recruit)<br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>"<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17px;">Fitzner possesses a long and rangy frame with very long arms. He is a good athlete that runs well and his quickness and bounce have improved around the paint area. He has a remarkable touch that extends out to 22-feet and his ball skills are impressive."</span></i></span></blockquote>
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From <a href="http://www.fullctpress.net/fullctpress.html">Full Court Press.net</a> (45th best player in SoCal area)<br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>"<span style="background-color: white;">Skilled forward needs strength and bulk as well as toughness to be a factor in WCC."</span> </i></span></blockquote>
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From <a href="http://westcoastconvo.com/2013/10/09/saint-marys-evan-fitzner/">West Coast Convo</a><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>"<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 24px;">This is a big time commitment for the Gaels as next season they will lose 6’11 center Matt Hodgeson to graduation and had already lost power forward Chris Reyes this year who transferred out earlier this season. Fitzner is known more for his shooting ability at the stretch-4 position rather than interior play, but none-the-less should get good minutes next season in his first year as a Gael."</span></i></span></blockquote>
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<b>Catholic Coast Hoops Quick Analysis</b><br />
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When you watch video of Fitzner, there is a lot to like. He has a good looking shot, and his form and touch has improved greatly from his <a href="http://youtu.be/0NkJqpF3K34">sophomore season</a>. In fact, as an outside player, he seems very dangerous, as he can find his shot easily thanks to his ability to move around well for a big man, in addition to his height. In many ways, he seems to be a combo of former Gael Daniel Kickert (who was a big man with a strong propensity to shoot from the outside) and Gonzaga forward Austin Daye (who was a good shooter from the outside for a 6-10 player). I am not sure if he has Daye's defensive ability (Daye was a very good shot blocker at Gonzaga), but he definitely shares the former first round draft pick's combo skill set of shooting and size.<br />
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Much like Daye though, Fitzner needs to add strength, and it'll be interesting to see if he'll be able to get inside to score points or get to the line if his shot is not falling. The Gaels will return Brad Waldow next year, but Fitzner could be a player to take the ease off him in the post, which could not only benefits Fitzner's game, but Waldow's as well. That being said, there are going to be some good big men next year in the WCC in Przemek Karnowski at Gonzaga (who'll be a junior) and Thomas van der Mars from Portland (who'll be a senior), so it'll be interesting to see how Fitzner adjusts to the nightly competition after playing at a small school in San Diego (though to be fair he has played against good AAU and tournament competition). I don't see Fitzner making an immediate splash, but I think his shooting skill set and height will make him a decent, if not solid contributor for the Gaels in his freshman season next year, which will be sorely needed as the Gaels routinely struggle with depth on their squad.<br />
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<br />Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-12902553058084597672014-01-22T21:23:00.000-08:002014-01-22T21:28:28.382-08:00The "Woolpert Award Watch": The Top 15 Players in the WCC Thus Far<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.bashof.org/images/inductees/Phil_Woolpert_2001.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.bashof.org/images/inductees/Phil_Woolpert_2001.jpg" height="312" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Which WCC Player Will Win CCH's First-Annual "Woolpert Award" for the Best Player in the WCC? The list has been narrowed down to 15.</td></tr>
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In lieu of the <a href="http://www.woodenaward.com/">Wooden Award announcing their annual Mid-Season Top 25 list</a>, I wanted to name an award on this blog for the best player in the WCC. My best idea centered on former USF coach Phil Woolpert, who led the Dons to two NCAA titles in his tenure with the Dons in the 1950's. Maybe there is already an award on Woolpert, and if there is, I can change it, but for now, Woolpert it is darn it!<br />
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Anyways, here is the criteria for the Woolpert Award player:<br />
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<li>Has to be at least a significant contributor on his team (Ken Pom characterizes this as at least a 20 percent usage rate). The more significant, the better their chances. I want to look at the player who is most essential to his team's success.</li>
<li>Record is not the end-all, be-all, but the better the team is, the better the chances are for that player (especially if he is more of a major contributor).</li>
<li>Advanced numbers will be what determines a player's candidacy. Traditional per game stats are thrown out the window here (I will write a post in due time why I don't rely solely on per game stats, and in fact use them as little as possible).</li>
<li>Has to play a significant amount of games. Guys who miss significant time due to injury or suspension are not considered (sorry, but you need to play to have an impact on your team; I consider significant time if you have missed about four or more games so far, i.e. Gary Bell of Gonzaga).</li>
<li>Can be a starter or bench player, but needs to have played at least 50 percent of his team's minutes (which correlates with the statement above).</li>
</ul>
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<br /></div>
<div>
Okay, here is a very early list of the Top-15 candidates who have earned their spot on the "Woolpert Watch" so far. Roughly, it comes out to </div>
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(Note: this is not in any particular order nor a ranking. I'm just putting in guys randomly.)</div>
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<ol>
<li>Brad Waldow, St. Mary's</li>
<li>Sam Dower, Gonzaga</li>
<li>Brandon Clark, Santa Clara</li>
<li>Tyler Haws, BYU</li>
<li>Anthony Ireland, LMU</li>
<li>Brendan Lane, Pepperdine</li>
<li>Kruize Pinkins, USF</li>
<li>Andrew Bock, Pacific</li>
<li>Johnny Dee, San Diego</li>
<li>Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga</li>
<li>Kevin Bailey, Portland</li>
<li>Eric Mika, BYU</li>
<li>Stephen Holt, St. Mary's</li>
<li>Thomas van der Mars, Portland</li>
<li>Stacy Davis, Pepperdine</li>
</ol>
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</div>
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As stated before, the list above is NOT a ranking. This is just an initial list. And, much like the Wooden Award, if a player makes significant strides in the second half of the WCC season, I can also put them on the Woolpert Watch as well. Right now, I wanted to have no more than two players from a team on this list and at least 1 representative as well from each WCC squad. So while this list is a good gauge in terms of who is the most valuable player in the WCC this season, it's not an end-all, be-all list either.</div>
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<div>
If you feel I snubbed anyone, let me know and I would definitely be open to discuss about it. (Beau Levesque was a tough snub for me, but I didn't want to have three Gaels on there, especially considering they're in 3rd place as well).<br />
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I'll have a poll on the sideboard of the blog soon to take a tally of who "fans" should think should earn the award (though to be frank, I'll be awarding the vote myself, since it is a statistical award, not a fan vote...sorry guys).<br />
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Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-45428478198450647222014-01-21T20:41:00.000-08:002014-01-22T09:02:09.362-08:00Data Sheet Analysis: WCC Ratings Roundup, January 21st<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Don't Understand This Chart? I'll Make Sense After Reading This Post...Hopefully</span></div>
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<i><br /></i>
<br />
Though it's not even February yet, it's never a bad time to talk about postseason expectations. One thing I liked to do leading up to tournament time is looking up different ratings of basketball teams that are on "the bubble". In the WCC, it's usually only 2-3 teams, but nonetheless, I wanted to look at the conference as a whole and the ratings of each and see where there were major differences between ratings systems for certain teams. For a lot of the top teams in conference, the ratings were pretty consistent across the board (as I will show in a graph via the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At0LL3W3Eyg8dEt2bFFyeEp2U1JNTUpCbkhRdXFPeHc&usp=sharing">Data Sheet</a>), but things got interesting as you look at the middle of the pack to the bottom of the WCC.<br />
<br />
Before I go into the analysis of each team, I wanted to give people a brief synopsis of each ratings system I used leading up to the team analysis.<br />
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<b><a href="http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/WCC.html">RPI (Rating Percentage Index)</a></b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>The most common and widely known ratings system. Used in the NCAA selection process. The formula for RPI is<span style="font-family: inherit;"> <span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"> (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25) (where WP is Winning percentage, OWP is opponent's win percentage and OOWP is Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage).</span></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b><a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi">BPI (College Basketball Power Index)</a></b></span></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">ESPN's own ratings index similar to RPI created in 2012. BPI accounts the most factors in games in comparison to the other Major Indexes, as it includes scoring margin, diminishing returns for blowouts, pace, game location, SOS beyond Opponent W-L, Wins (not really quality losses), and Key Players missing. While the positive is that it accounts all factors, the negative with BPI is that it can be the most subjective of all the ratings indexes with all the factors it accounts. For a more detailed explanation, check out this post <a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/7561413/bpi-college-basketball-power-index-explained">here</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b><a href="http://kenpom.com/">Ken Pomeroy Ratings</a></b></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">More mathematical than the above, but in my opinion very informative in terms of "pure prediction" as he states on his "Ratings Explanation" page. Pomeroy seems less concerned with past results (since he knows upsets will happen and it's impossible to predict every upset or win), but in his words "to show <span style="background-color: #f2fafd; line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team’s current level of play." The core of Pomeroy's system is based on the "</span></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation" style="background-color: #f2fafd; border: 0px; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: #f2fafd; border: 0px; color: blue; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">pythagorean calculation for expected winning </span><span style="background-color: #f2fafd; border: 0px; color: black; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">percentage</span></a><span style="background-color: #f2fafd; line-height: 24px;">", though he has incorporated some changes to his algorithms going into <a href="http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/pomeroy_ratings_version_2.0">this year.</a> Overall, Pomeroy's seems to be for the most mathematically or statistically inclined, but I like it the most because I find the data accurate in reflecting a team's profile.</span></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 24px;"><b><a href="http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm">Jeff Sagarin Ratings</a></b></span></div>
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<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 24px;">Sagarin's ratings are not only used by the NCAA Tournament committee, but they have also been a staple among oddsmakers in terms of determining lines for basketball games (and football, as his football ratings have been part of the BCS system since its inception). While the exact formulas for Sagarin's ratings aren't exact, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Sagarin#Methodology">according to Wikipedia </a>(yes, I am quoting Wikipedia, shoot me English Teacher Nazi) his system is <span style="font-family: inherit;">"</span></span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">the difference in two teams' rating scores is meant to predict the margin of victory for the stronger team at a neutral venue...teams gain higher ratings within the Sagarin system by winning games against stronger opponents, factoring in such things as home-venue advantage." Thus, Sagarin is more aimed toward the NCAA Tournament as the idea of playing on a neutral court is something that is rarely important in the regular season and more important come Tournament time (where all the teams play on neutral courts).</span></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b><a href="http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=14553&s=203290">Ken Massey Ratings</a></b></span></div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Massey's ratings are more predicated on measuring past performance rather than predicting future results. This emphasis varies from other ratings such as Pomeroy and Sagarin (which state their goal is to predict future results, albeit in different ways). Massey states two challenges, as he looks to eliminate "noise which obscures the true strength of a team" (which includes officiating, luck, not playing to potential, etc.) and differences in schedule. Thus, strength of schedule is heavily incorporated into the ratings, though Massey only factors in score, venue and date and no other statistics or factors in the strength of schedule rating.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">After looking up all those ratings on their various Web site, I composed an aggregate rating which basically was an average of all their ratings combined. That way, the aggregate rating gives a true "real" rating of each WCC team, since some fluctuate surprisingly a lot.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Okay, with that out of the way, let's analyze each team in the WCC and their ratings thus far through the season.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>Gonzaga Bulldogs (16-3 overall, 6-1 in conference)</b></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">RPI: 25</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BPI: 21</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Pom: 26</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Jeff Sagarin: 21</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Massey: 29</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Aggregate Rating: 24.4</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BPI and Sagarin love the Zags, as they rate them at 21 in both ratings. BPI is not surprising considering all the subjective factors they take in. The Zags have huge margin of victories in many games (especially during their first 3 games in WCC play against St. Mary's, USF and Santa Clara), have been hit hard by injuries (Gary Bell and Sam Dower), and have played some tough neutral court games (Maui Classic and Kansas State in Wichita). Sagarin also takes in margin of victory, and that too probably also explains why that rating also correlates similarly with ESPN's BPI.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Massey and Pom seem less in love with the Zags, as they both rate them higher than their aggregate rating. The Zags rate 17th in AdjO and 71st in AdjD, so when you factor in both those factors, as well as their 67.4 pace factor, and the Zags rating at 26 seems about right (SMU, which is rated 25, is similar in their AdjO and AdjD difference, though is flipped, as their D is better than their O). As for Massey, which had the lowest rating for the Zags out of any of the ones listed, it relies so heavily the teams' records and opponents records, and the strength of many of the opponents outside of Arkansas, West Virgina (though that's questionable), Kansas State and Dayton isn't all that great (New Mexico State started well early on but have faded and that has hurt the Zags' strength of schedule, which in return has hurt the Zags).</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>BYU Cougars (13-7 overall, 5-2 conference)</b></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">RPI: 39</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BPI: 49</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Pom: 49</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Jeff Sagarin: 41</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Massey: 55</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Aggregate Rating: 46.6</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">RPI loves BYU and it's not surprising. The Cougars played the best out of conference schedule (7th hardest in the nation) out of anyone in the WCC. Stanford, Wichita State, Utah State, Iowa State, Texas, Utah, Oregon and UMass were all on BYU's non-conference slate and all those teams are Top-100 teams in almost every rating listed above. Though the Cougars went 3-5 against them, three of those teams started out the season with double digit wins before suffering their first loss (Iowa State, Oregon and Umass) and one is still undefeated (Wichita State). Thus, it makes sense that BYU's highest rating came in the RPI.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Massey was the least loving of the Cougars (though that tended to be the trend for many WCC teams, as the conference as a whole rated low in Massey's ratings). My guess for the low ratings is the Cougars' opening conference losses to LMU and Pepperdine (who rank low in the Massey Ratings) hurt, as well as that Dec.14-Dec.30 stretch where they lost four straight. Ken Pom and BPI also rated the Cougars above their aggregate rating, which makes sense considering the Cougars' mediocre defensive rating (86th in KP) and high pace (76.0). Still, the Cougars have had a relatively easy road so far in conference play (10th rated in conference SOS on Ken Pom), so it'll be interesting to see if this improvement is legit or just the product of an easy stretch.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>St. Mary's Gaels (14-5 overall, 4-2 in conference)</b></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">RPI: 50</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BPI: 47</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Pom: 56</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Jeff Sagarin: 51</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Massey: 65</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Aggregate Rating: 53.8</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">If you want to make the NCAA Bubble Case for the Gaels, you certainly can. They sneak in when it comes to RPI and BPI. Their opening win over Louisiana Tech may have been their most underrated win of the season so far (though LA Tech's loss to Southern Miss dampened it a bit) and wins over Boise State and North Dakota State are solid wins over solid mid-major teams who have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament (albeit by winning their conference tournaments, but still a chance nonetheless).</span></div>
</div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">But, the Gaels look bad in Ken Pom and Ken Massey's ratings. In KP's ratings, their soft non-conference schedule (only two away games and two neutral games in the non-conference) and mediocre defensive efficiency (175th in the nation) hurts their case big time. As for Massey, a home loss to Santa Clara (it takes heavily into consideration home record) and a slow start in conference (4-2, unimpressive difference in Points Score and Points Allowed in Conf Play) probably is the key reason why they are barely on the bubble in his ratings.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>Pacific Tigers (10-7 overall, 1-5 conference)</b></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">RPI: 84</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BPI: 115</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Pom: 121</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Jeff Sagarin: 116</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Massey: 117</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Aggregate Rating: 110.6</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">I really believe the Tigers are due for a second-half turnaround in WCC play. Though they currently rank in the basement in the WCC with a 1-5 conference record, their RPI is surprisingly high for a last-place team, and they played well in the non-conference slate as well with good wins over Utah State and UC Irvine and tough games against Oregon and Princeton (who really is a contender to Harvard, though it is Harvard's conference to lose at this point). Furthermore, they have already played some of the toughest WCC opponents thus far, as they have played St. Mary's twice and Gonzaga in Spokane (all boosts to that RPI).</span></div>
</div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Now, I don't believe the Tigers are a top-100 team. But even when you look at their other ratings, they are obviously seen as a middle of the pack WCC team, not a last place team like the one you see currently. Even Ken Pomeroy, who has the Tigers rated the lowest out of all the ratings, still has them as the fifth highest rated team in the conference, and did rate their conference schedule as the hardest thus far for any WCC team. So, don't give up on this Tigers team yet, even though they certainly didn't do themselves any favors with that 1-5 start in conference play.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>San Francisco Dons (12-8 overall, 5-3 conference)</b></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">RPI: 102</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BPI: 121</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Pom: 124</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Jeff Sagarin: 126</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Massey: 114</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Aggregate Rating: 117.4</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">A pretty consistently rated team overall. The RPI is solid for their record, but it's not egregiously different from the other ratings like Pacific (where they had a 37 point difference between RPI, their highest ranking and Ken Pom, their lowest rating). USF was hurt from questionable losses early on, and it shows in their out of conference RPI of 177, which is third-worst in the conference. Ken Pom also rates their defense 263rd in the nation AdjD efficiency, so that is also another reason why KP has them hovering in the 120 range, well out of NIT territory and maybe even CIT or CBI consideration as well.</span></div>
</div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">That being said, USF's offense is good (40th in the nation in AdjO efficiency) and they have played much better as of late with four wins in their last six conference games, and the two losses being on the road at St. Mary's and a tough loss to BYU (who is playing the best ball in conference). Those losses won't hurt, and the Dons only other conference loss is to Gonzaga on the road (though that was a BAAD conference loss as they were killed). If the Dons can keep winning WCC games against the middle of the pack (they already got a huge boon in a road win over Portland which is looking better and better with Portland's win over Gonzaga at the Chiles Center), and maybe pull one home upset over St. Mary's or Gonzaga (Winning at BYU would be tough), then I think the Dons could get a high enough status in the ratings to earn some kind of postseason berth.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>Portland Pilots (11-8 overall, 3-4 conference)</b></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">RPI: 152</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BPI: 107</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Pom: 104</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Jeff Sagarin: 109</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Massey: 126</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Aggregate Rating: 119.6</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">The Pilots earn the award for the most bi-polar team in the Ratings Roundup. RPI does NOT like Portland and rightfully so. Their projected OOC RPI is 169 and projected OOC SOS is 290. They are 7-2 against teams rated 200 or higher, but 6-6 against teams in the 51-100 range. The Pilots boast a profile with good wins over Gonzaga and Princeton, tolerable losses to Oregon State and Michigan State, and downright crappy losses to North Texas and Montana State. Portland may be a good team underneath all that fluff, but RPI is going to have a hard time seeing it, especially with those strength of schedule numbers hanging out there.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">But sans RPI, the Pilots still profile as a decent team and have a good shot for the fourth spot in conference if they can use the momentum from the Gonzaga win to turn it around. Much like Pacific, they suffered from some bad losses early (though the conference strength of schedule wasn't nearly as difficult as Pacific's; it is rated as the 8th toughest so far) and while they don't excel in anything, they aren't really terrible in anything either (they rank 116th in AdjO and 123rd in AdjD according to KP). So, they'll always be a competitive team, though they'll probably lose some games they probably should win (as evidenced by losing to Pepperdine on Saturday, though that was in Malibu). While I like USF more, I think Portland has a decent chance to make a postseason berth if they can get some consistency.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>Pepperdine Waves (12-8 overall, 5-3 conference)</b></span></div>
<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">RPI: 118</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BPI: 135</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Pom: 126</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Jeff Sagarin: 121</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Massey: 113</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Aggregate Rating: 122.6</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">As we get to the bottom of the WCC, we start to see some trends emerge. When it comes to the top of the conference, the RPI is consistently higher than the Massey ratings. For the lower-tier WCC teams, the Massey ratings are actually better than their RPIs. Because BPI is so subjective and incorporates so many variables, it goes a variety of ways, and Pom and Sagarin are more scientific, so they kinda fall in line with BPI as well. Pepperdine is pretty typical of what we see from the lower tier teams, though to be honest, they may be on the cusp of being a middling to borderline upper tier team, if they could just pull some sort of consistency and give fans a real idea what team they're going to be for the rest of the season.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Pepperdine suffers from many of the same problems of the lower-end WCC teams: bad OOC RPI (202, second worst in WCC), bad OOC SOS (282, third worst in WCC) and lack of quality wins (2-8 against top-100) along with some REALLY bad losses (San Jose State and Cal State Fullerton are rated 252nd and 241st respectively in KP's ratings). What boosts Pepperdine (or why you might argue in favor of Pepperdine) over Portland though is that the Waves have actually been better against teams ranked in the 101-200 range (8-4 to Portland's 6-6 mark). Add that with the fact that the Waves actually are better than average in something (86th in Adjusted Offense), and that gives the Waves a bit of an advantage over a team like Portland who is just pretty average all across the board. Yes, the Pilots have the better ratings now, but check back in two weeks and I have a feeling Pepperdine will have leaped them.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>San Diego Toreros (11-9 overall, 2-5 conference)</b></span></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">RPI: 189</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BPI: 160</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Pom: 150</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Jeff Sagarin: 156</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Massey: 171</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Aggregate Rating: 165.2</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Initially, the feeling is to say that the Toreros are the worst team in the WCC. While Pacific is last, there is the feeling that they have just been unlucky. The Tigers played some decent teams in the non-conference, and as stated before, played the toughest conference slate of any WCC team thus far. Add that with the adjustment that comes with playing in a new conference (especially a conference upgrade to the WCC from the Big West), and it makes sense why the Tigers have struggled this season. But as for the Toreros? They played two Non-DI teams (inexcusable in my mind any way you cut it), have a projected OOC SOS of 276, and are 1-9 against Top-100 teams this season. Their 189 RPI is second-worst in the conference, and by all means, it is easy to categorize San Diego as the bottom feeder in the WCC.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">But surprisingly, the Toreros aren't as bad as advertised. Sans a bad loss to Illinois Chicago on a neutral court (282nd in KP's ratings), the Toreros have taken care of business against bad teams (7-1 against teams rated in the 200 plus range). Their OOC RPI isn't as bad as expected at 170 (better than both USF and Pepperdine), and the advanced guys (Pomeroy and Sagarin) like them more than most, which means statistically, they have some potential (though certainly not a lot of it). San Diego's slower pace (second-slowest in WCC) also helps them in the more variable ratings (especially BPI and KP), so I can see why they rate higher in ratings other than RPI. So, the Toreros are bad...they're just not as bad as we want to think just yet.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>Loyola Marymount Lions (10-10 overall, 2-6 conference)</b></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">RPI: 164</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BPI: 181</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Pom: 161</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Jeff Sagarin: 165</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Massey: 166</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Aggregate Rating: 167.4</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Oh how they mighty have fallen. Remember how sky high people were riding on the Lions after they whooped BYU in Los Angeles? Remember how the Lions were threatening to make their case as the conference's second or third best team? Well those days are long gone. According to the aggregate ratings, the Lions rank as the second-worst team in the WCC, and with their 2-6 record in the WCC, the ratings seem pretty spot on in this case. The Lions aren't just bad in one set of ratings, but go for all-around effect in terms of their lower tier in the ratings (though BPI seems to be the most lackluster at 181), thus cementing their spot currently in the basement of the WCC.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">If you want to find any silver linings for LMU, Ken Pom rates them the highest at 161st, noting that the overall AdjO rating at 106.1 is actually not bad at 134th in the nation despite them ranking last in the conference in offensive rating in WCC games alone (100.4 offensive rating in conference games only). And, the Lions' OOC SOS was actually better than most WCC teams in the lower tier (241st, which would rank as the 6th toughest OOC SOS in the WCC). Add that with an OOC RPI that was rated as 117th and the Lions probably have been a victim of bad luck rather than just mere bad play (though there has been plenty of that going on for Max Good's squad). RPI-Forecast projects the Lions to finish with a RPI of 158.5. While that is not a huge difference, I think that is a sign people should expect the Lions to trend up not down during this second-half stretch of WCC play.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>Santa Clara Broncos (10-11 overall, 3-5 conference)</b></span></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">RPI: 193</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BPI: 184</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Pom: 178</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Jeff Sagarin: 184</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Ken Massey: 184</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Aggregate Rating: 184.6</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Thank God Kerry Keating signed that contract extension this year or he'd be in serious trouble. I get it, he has a couple of CBI titles to his belt, but he hasn't made the NCAA tournament, kind of a big deal considering the coach the administration pushed out (Dick Davey) to make room for him had numerous on his resume. That being said, it makes sense though that the athletic department signed him to a deal so early this season: it was going to be a rebuilding year after losing Kevin Foster and a few other key players, and Even Roquemore simply isn't the player efficiency-wise to carry a team. Thus, it makes sense why the Broncos rate as the worst team ratings wise so far, even though they're holding their head above water a little bit with a 3-5 conference record.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Let's look at the good: the Broncos have played the second toughest conference schedule so far according to Ken Pom, so things are bound to get easier down the stretch (they have already played Gonzaga and St. Mary's on the road and they played BYU recently at home). Their win over St. Mary's on the road may be what plays spoiler to the Gaels' chances for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, so at least they can torment their Bay Area brethren in that regard. Other than that though? 9-9 record against teams rated 100-plus (i.e. not good), 292nd in OOC SOS (worst in WCC) and 256th in OOC RPI (also worst in WCC). And, terrible losses to Cal State Fullerton (241) on the road and Rice (300!) at home. Yes, as bad as it is to hear Rough Riders (all 50 of you...sorry, just kidding), you are indeed probably the worst team in the WCC this year unfortunately. Just hope it's only a one year thing.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>Candidates to trend UPWARD in ratings:</b></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Pacific</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Pepperdine</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Loyola Marymount</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
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<div>
<span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><b>Candidates to trend DOWNWARD in ratings:</b></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Portland</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">BYU</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">Gonzaga</span></li>
</ul>
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Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-5215594041424701112014-01-20T07:51:00.000-08:002014-01-20T08:05:01.747-08:00Recruit Report: Kyron Cartwright, 5-11, 155 pounds, LMU Commit<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="281" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/hO6rV4qjvPQ" width="500"></iframe><br />
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It's been a while, but I decided to add another <a href="http://catholiccoasthoops.blogspot.com/p/recruit-reports.html">Recruit Report</a> to the list. Keeping with the guard-heavy theme as of late, I am going to profile Compton guard Kyron Cartwright, a 5-11 guard out of Compton High who played AAU ball with the prestigious <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CCcQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.comptonmagic.com%2F&ei=y0XdUqCzEvHmsASh9YG4DQ&usg=AFQjCNErGRuynE9XQp4Mpv5qLC9YP7Gk8Q&sig2=BnjWJoCAAzAPdJdRQpsQAA&bvm=bv.59568121,d.cWc">Compton Magic program</a>. Cartwright is an athletic, lefty-guard who has a strong knack to attack the hoop and score at will. Before committing to LMU in November, the senior guard also received offers from Cal State Fullerton, New Mexico and San Diego.<br />
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Cartwright is currently rated as the <a href="http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/state/california/class/2014/view/state">18th best player in the State of California according to ESPN.com</a>, and <a href="http://www.fullctpress.net/socal-top-2014-players.html">Full Court Press.net rated him as the 30th best player</a> in the SoCal region. Along with forward commit Elijah Stewart, Cartwright should be able to have an immediate impact on Max Good's LMU squad next season (especially since long-time guard Anthony Ireland will be gone as well).<br />
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<br />
<b>What they Are Saying About Cartwright</b><br />
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From <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/evaluation/_/id/146646/kyron-cartwright">ESPN.com</a> (72 rating, 3-star recruit)<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>"<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17px;">Cartwright is a slick left-handed point guard who is tough to stop in transition. He has an excellent pull-up jumper and he gets tremendous lift on it. He has a high-level burst as well and can toss in the occasional runner as well."</span></i></span></blockquote>
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From <a href="http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=6323378">Scout.com</a> (2-star rating)<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>"<a href="http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=6323378">Kyron Cartwright</a>, 5-10 JR PG Compton (Calif.) High, is one of the top point guards in the west for 2014. A quick lefty with range to the stripe, excellent vision and very good ball skills overall, Cartwright is perhaps the most under-recruited prospect in the West Coast junior class." </i></span></blockquote>
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From FullCourtPress.net (ranked 30th best player in Southern California)<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>"<span style="background-color: white;">Speedy PG has no problem evading defensive pressure. Will be a pleasant addition to Max Good’s Lions next Fall."</span></i></span></blockquote>
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<br />
<b>Catholic Coast Hoops Quick Analysis</b><br />
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It has been a bit of a rough conference season for head coach Max Good. After starting 2-0 with a big win over BYU to start conference play, the Lions have slumped, losing six straight WCC games. The Lions main struggles have been on the offensive end, as they rank last in offensive efficiency in the WCC, and last in categories such as free throw rate and 3-point percentage. Already, it seems like Lions fans are already looking toward next year, a shame since the WCC season started with so much promise for Good and the Lions.<br />
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That being said, next year's recruiting class has some enticing players, and Cartwright leads the pack. Check out the video above (it's a scouting video courtesy of Full Court Press.net's scouting service), and you can get more details about Cartwright's profile as a recruit. He is very quick off the dribble and he has good touch around the rim as well. His smaller frame is a bit of a concern, but his speed may already be "starter-worthy" as he regularly torched defenders from what I have seen on tape. Furthermore, he is also a left-handed player, and if Manu Ginobili has taught us anything, lefties who are quick off the dribble can be extremely dangerous and difficult players to defend. I think Cartwright has that kind of speed that will make him a tough outing for opposing WCC guards on a nightly basis.<br />
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The main issue with Cartwright is he is almost TOO left-hand dominant (as that was noted in the video), as you rarely see him drive with the right in the video above. And, while his pull up jumper looks good, you do not get a lot of looks at it, and I am curious about his range, as it did not have a lot of shots of him shooting from beyond the arc. From the reports I have seen, I don't think Cartwright is a long-range specialist by any means, but if he can have a decent shot from outside, that will only make his offensive game more dangerous since he is so strong dribbling past defenders and getting to the hoop. He doesn't need to be Kevin Pangos from beyond the arc, but if he can be simply average, it will help his ability to make an impact on this Lions squad in 2014-2015.<br />
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Overall, Cartwright looks to be a solid addition to this Lions squad, and with Ireland gone (as noted above), Cartwright will get a shot to earn major minutes in the backcourt as a freshman next year at LMU along with Evan Payne, who'll be a sophomore. I am not sure if Cartwright will be as good a shooter as Ireland, but his ability to drive and create fares pretty similarly to the four-year player, so this definitely is a nice pickup by Good. While his on-court success has been inconsistent this year and in the past few years as well, Good has made inroads in his recruiting and really hit the Los Angeles/Southern California area hard this year, as he also got a commitment from Stewart, a Westchester High School product. It'll be interesting to see if the Lions will turn things around and help Good keep his position at LMU. If he does stick and survive this season, he and the Lions could be very dangerous next year with Cartwright and a solid recruiting class coming to campus next Fall and a more experienced group returning as well (they only lose 3 seniors).Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-59211629280008835522014-01-19T13:36:00.003-08:002014-01-19T13:36:58.463-08:00Matt Carlino, Super-Sub, and the Cougars' Turnaround in WCC Play<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://universe.byu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/IMG_3302-640x960_c.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://universe.byu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/IMG_3302-640x960_c.jpg" height="400" width="266" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>Despite his diminished role, Matt Carlino and the BYU Cougars Have Flourished with Him Coming Off the Bench</i></div>
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For many BYU and WCC basketball fans, guard Matt Carlino evokes a wide disparity of emotions. Some love his entertaining, shoot-first, shoot-second, mentality, and it has led to some memorable performances (for example, his 28-point outburst a year ago against Santa Clara and his 26 point performance in the Cougars' win over Stanford, a much bigger win in retrospect than it was thought at the time). However, efficiency wise, Carlino' struggles with consistency has often done his team more harm than good. In his frosh season, Carlino posted a 95.8 Adjusted Offensive rating on a usage rate of 26.1 percent. In his sophomore year, he let go of the ball a little bit, as his usage rate dropped to 24.2, but it didn't affect his rating significantly, as it still remained under 100 (which is usually about average) for the second straight year (99.2). The consensus was simple: as entertaining as Carlino could be, his inefficient style certainly didn't do the Cougars any favors, and he wasn't exactly the kind of player the Cougars could build around for consistent success either.<br />
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Nonetheless, due to his experience, Carlino remained a mainstay in the Cougars rotation in the beginning of the year. He started the first 14 games at point guard for the Cougars, and they struggled to find major, lasting success on the court. While they pulled off big wins over teams like Stanford and Texas, they also started off poorly in conference play, dropping their first two conference games of the year against Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine (both on the road but still damaging losses nonetheless).<br />
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After the loss to the Waves, head coach Dave Rose made a gutsy decision: he made the junior Carlino a bench player. The results for the Cougars? They are 5-0 in WCC play since Carlino was removed from the starting lineup. The Cougars have scored less than 1.20 points per possession in a game only once (against USF), and the recent stretch has been a big boost to their conference-only numbers, as they rate as the top offensive team in the WCC according to Adjusted Offensive rating (118.2). They lead in three WCC offensive categories according to Ken Pom (AdjO, Offensive Rebounding percentage and Tempo), and they rank in the Top 3 in four offensive categories as well (eFG percentage, turnover percentage, free throw rate and two point percentage). Furthermore, unlike some teams in conference (such as St. Mary's and USF), BYU has showed proficiency not only on the offensive end, but defensive end in conference play as well. They are second in the WCC in Defensive Efficiency (103.5) and rank third in categories such as opponent offensive rebounding percentage and opponent free throw rate, and second in opponent two-point percentage. After a stretch where the Cougars lost four straight games and many thought they were definitely NIT-bound, they have turned it around since the lineup-change and could make a case as an At-Large Tournament team if they finish as expected (Ken Pom projects them to finish with a 20-11 record) or slightly better. That was hard to imagine after they started 0-2 in conference after their loss to the Waves in Malibu and looked significantly behind conference favorites Gonzaga and St. Mary's (now they are ahead of St. Mary's in terms of getting an at-large bid).<br />
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While Rose's decision to move Carlino to the bench has obviously had positive effects for the team as a whole, it has also improved Carlino's numbers surprisingly. While some players who come off the bench play starter's minutes, Carlino has actually seen a decrease in minutes and has been used less in major lineups than before. Here is a list of the most used lineups for the Cougars in the past 5 games according to Ken Pom:<br />
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<table id="conf-table" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border-width: 0px 0px 2px; font-size: 13px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px auto 1.4em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: auto;"><tbody style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">PG</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">SG</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">SF</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">PF</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">C</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">Pct</td></tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">5</span> Kyle Collinsworth<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-6 210 So</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">23</span> Skyler Halford<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-1 180 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span> Tyler Haws<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-5 200 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">12</span> Josh Sharp<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-7 185 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">33</span> Nate Austin<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-11 230 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">11.0<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></td></tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">5</span> Kyle Collinsworth<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-6 210 So</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">23</span> Skyler Halford<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-1 180 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span> Tyler Haws<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-5 200 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">0</span> Eric Mika<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-9 220 Fr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">33</span> Nate Austin<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-11 230 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">10.1<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></td></tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> Matt Carlino<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-2 175 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span> Tyler Haws<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-5 200 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">5</span> Kyle Collinsworth<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-6 210 So</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">0</span> Eric Mika<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-9 220 Fr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">33</span> Nate Austin<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-11 230 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">6.2<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></td></tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> Matt Carlino<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-2 175 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">20</span> Anson Winder<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-3 195 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span> Tyler Haws<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-5 200 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">5</span> Kyle Collinsworth<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-6 210 So</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">33</span> Nate Austin<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-11 230 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">4.4<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></td></tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> Matt Carlino<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-2 175 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">23</span> Skyler Halford<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-1 180 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span> Tyler Haws<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-5 200 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">5</span> Kyle Collinsworth<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-6 210 So</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">33</span> Nate Austin<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-11 230 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">4.3<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></td></tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> Matt Carlino<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-2 175 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">23</span> Skyler Halford<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-1 180 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span> Tyler Haws<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-5 200 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">12</span> Josh Sharp<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-7 185 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">33</span> Nate Austin<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-11 230 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">4.1<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></td></tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">5</span> Kyle Collinsworth<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-6 210 So</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">23</span> Skyler Halford<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-1 180 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span> Tyler Haws<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-5 200 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">12</span> Josh Sharp<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-7 185 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">0</span> Eric Mika<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-9 220 Fr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">3.5<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></td></tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> Matt Carlino<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-2 175 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">23</span> Skyler Halford<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-1 180 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span> Tyler Haws<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-5 200 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">5</span> Kyle Collinsworth<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-6 210 So</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">0</span> Eric Mika<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-9 220 Fr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">3.1<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></td></tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> Matt Carlino<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-2 175 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">23</span> Skyler Halford<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-1 180 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">5</span> Kyle Collinsworth<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-6 210 So</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">12</span> Josh Sharp<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-7 185 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">0</span> Eric Mika<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-9 220 Fr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">2.9<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></td></tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">5</span> Kyle Collinsworth<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-6 210 So</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">23</span> Skyler Halford<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-1 180 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">24</span> Frank Bartley<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-3 200 Fr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span> Tyler Haws<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-5 200 Jr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">0</span> Eric Mika<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">6-9 220 Fr</span></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">2.8<br /><span class="seed-gray" style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></td></tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><td colspan="4" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"></td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">UNKNOWN</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; float: none !important; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">2.5<br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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While Carlino has been primarily used in six of the ten lineups listed, he has not been used in the the top-two most played lineups. Thus, Carlino is not a "Ginobili-type" in the sense that he is a starter simply coming off the bench due to aesthetic or "strategic" reasons. Rose has preferred sophomore Kyle Collinsworth at the point for more of the critical minutes in the past five games, as evidenced by him running the point in the top-two most used lineups. It's hard to argue with the success as the Cougars are 5-0 in this span and playing some of their best ball of the season during this stretch.<br />
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But, this shakeup has turned out well for Carlino in terms of him improving his efficiency on the court. In the 14 games Carlino started this year, he only had five games where he posted offensive ratings in the triple digits. In the five games that Carlino has come off the bench, he has posted four games with ratings over 100, including a 150 rating against Santa Clara where he put up 15 points and 9 assists in only 24 minutes. Thanks to the recent stretch, his adjusted offensive rating has boosted up to 100.7 which would be a career high, and his turnover rate has dropped to 16.9 percent, which would be a career low, if the season ended today.<br />
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If you think about it, it is surprising Rose did not resort to this strategy sooner. Carlino, with his high usage rate (team high 28.1 percent) and high shot percentage (29.1), is the kind of player that can really spark a squad off the bench. He can bring instant offense in a short period of time, and he has the potential produce highly efficient numbers in a short period of time. However, when his minutes spread out, his efficiency becomes more inconsistent, because high-shot, high-usage players don't carry consistent success over a long period of time unless they're truly elite players (example: Carmelo Anthony can pull it off, but Ricky Davis cannot). While Carlino is good, he is not that kind of player skill-wise or athletically to do it over 30-plus minutes. But in 25 minutes and under? Carlino is the kind of player that can not only boost a team's offensive output, but also allow the starter's to get rest without the coaching staff worrying about the offense taking a step back with them on the bench. Carlino's role when he was a starter was always questionable because he wasn't the kind of player efficiency-wise that could carry a team, but in more limited minutes and as a sixth man? He's been the kind of player that has made BYU the most dangerous team right now in the WCC as well as a legitimate threat to challenge top-dog Gonzaga in the WCC Championship race.<br />
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Of course, Carlino is not the sole reason the Cougars have experienced success. Tyler Haws has also been a key reason for the Cougars' wave of success as he is posting a 116 offensive rating with a usage rate of 26.4. Furthermore, Collinsworth, with his size (6-6) and efficient play 109.5 rating and 24.6 assist rate) has filled in admirably in the starting point guard spot as only a sophomore. Despite those standout performances however, it is obvious that Rose has found the right formula for the Cougars to achieve WCC success centering on his decision to have Carlino coming off the bench. Carlino is the kind of player that can not only torch opposing WCC reserve guards, but he can also match up decently well against starters when in a pinch, which makes his role as a reserve more valuable than as a starter. Sure, his minutes have gone down (his minutes percentage has fallen to 68.4 percent, down from 71.8 a year ago), but his role serves the Cougars much better now than it did in the first 14 games of the year, and their record in that stretch has confirmed that. That may be tough to swallow for the former UCLA commit (after all, nobody would outright prefer to be a bench player than a starter), but if the Cougars ride this current rotation to a NCAA Tournament appearance, I'm sure Carlino and the Cougars program will be satisfied in retrospect with the changes that may have tapered from the pre-season expectations (which was for Carlino to probably be the team's centerpiece).Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-68311899775390100592014-01-18T08:31:00.000-08:002014-01-18T08:45:51.154-08:00Is Rex Walters Finally Turning a Corner at San Francisco?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://binaryapi.ap.org/feb57e1f72074187a901b222ee699031/940x.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://binaryapi.ap.org/feb57e1f72074187a901b222ee699031/940x.jpg" height="400" width="241" /></a></div>
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<i>Sophomore Mark Tollefsen Has Helped the Dons Develop as a Possible WCC Dark Horse This Year and Beyond</i></div>
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I know it's been a while since I have posted. I have been caught up with the start of school (both teaching and graduate school), so it has been tough to find time to post. That being said, I think I have found a routine, which should open up more writing down the road. Hopefully, I'll get at least a couple of posts a week, especially as we just pass the mid-season mark in the WCC.<br />
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If you have read this blog before, you know that Rex Walters topped the list in terms of the <a href="http://catholiccoasthoops.blogspot.com/p/coaching-barometer-checks.html">Coaching Barometer Check</a>. It made sense: Walters was in his sixth year, and had not made consistent process, and the sudden "retirement" of senior Cody Doolin and numerous transfers over his tenure made people wonder if there were things going on internally in the Dons program.<br />
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Well, since the Doolin departure, the Dons have actually been competitive as a squad this year in the West Coast Conference. Even though they are coming off two straight losses to St. Mary's on the road and BYU at home and were blown out on the road at Gonzaga, the Dons still sit in good shape in the WCC with a 4-3 conference record heading into today's home contest against San Diego, a team that has statistically been in the bottom of the WCC in both offense and defense (9th in conference both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency). With home games looming against St. Mary's and Gonzaga, and with "better-than-you think" road wins over Portland (remember: Portland beat Gonzaga at the Chiles Center), and Pacific (127th in Ken Pom's ratings), the Dons are setting themselves up nicely as the fourth place team in conference this year, which should give them a good shot to make a run in the WCC tournament should they finish the year in that position (they would get a much needed bye).<br />
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After the Doolin fiasco, it was typical to think that the Dons would hit the skids. After all, we have seen changes of any sort not go well in the Dons' favor in the past (cough...Eddie Sutton...cough). That being said, the Dons have been strong as a team offensively, as they rank 37th in the nation in Adjusted Offense with a rating of 112.9. They have been a little inconsistent in conference play (thanks to the stinker in Spokane), as their rating is only 108.3 in conference play (5th best in the conference), but they have showed flashes of brilliance on the offensive end, and they have interesting players that make them a dangerous foe.<br />
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What has made the Dons such a strong offensive team this year? While their shooting leaves some to be desired, their ability to create second chance shots has been a strength of this Dons team. They rank second in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage with a rate of 35.7 percent, and they did out rebound the Cougars (the no. 1 rated team in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage) in their contest on Jan. 16th. Kruize Pinkins has been a primary reason why the Dons dominate on the glass, as his 18.5 offensive board percentage is fourth best in the nation. Cole Dickerson and Matt Glover have also contributed as well on offensive glass, as their percentages are 8.5 and 8.0, respectively.<br />
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One of the biggest surprised for the Dons this year has been the emergence of sophomore Mark Tollefsen, a 6-9 forward who has the versatility to guard players on the perimeter. He has been extremely efficient offensively, as he is posting a 128.2 offensive rating and an effective field goal percentage of 63.8 on a usage rate of 17.5. However, while his offensive game is vastly underrated (and probably underutilized), it's his defense and athletic skills that make Tollefsen such an interesting player. He is quick enough to guard bigger guards, and while his block percentage helps confirm his defensive prowess (4.0 block percentage), it's his ability to hound and make opposing players uncomfortable that makes Tollefsen such a valuable player for Walters. Against BYU, Tollefsen was making BYU players struggle early on, as his combo of height and wingspan made him a defensive nightmare for opposing perimeter players.<br />
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Defensively, the Dons do leave a lot to be desired this year, as Walters has struggled to get any consistency from them on that end of the court. They are one of the worst teams in the nation in defensive rating, as they are posting an Adjusted Defensive rating of 108.9, 264th in the nation. Conference play hasn't been much better, as they rank 7th in the conference in Adjusted Defense, as they struggle to generate turnovers (8th in the WCC in turnovers-caused percentage) and send their opponents to the line way too much (9th in conference in opponent free throw rate percentage). It's those defensive deficiencies that will probably keep the Dons from being a true dark horse in the WCC this year, though they will certainly provide entertaining games, as evidenced by their contest against BYU at War Memorial Gym.<br />
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And still, though the ceiling probably isn't high for the Dons "this" year, there's a lot of potential in next year's squad. The Dons only lose forward Dickerson next year, and though Dickerson leads in a lot of "peripheral" stats (points per game, etc.), efficiency-wise, he's probably a bit overrated (101.5 offensive rating on a 25.7 usage rate). But, Pinkins and Tollefsen return in the post, and they also return guards Glover, Avry Holmes, Chris Adams, and Tim Derksen, who have also showed solid play in their replacement of Doolin. Also, they will return the raw of potential of Chinese import Tao Xu, who is extremely raw, but could have the ability to help the Dons' ability to continue to dominate on the boards in WCC play for the remainder of this year and especially next year.<br />
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Ken Pom projects the Dons to finish with a 16-14 record for the year (9-9 down the stretch), and if the Dons finish with a record like that, I think Walters gets one more year. The amount of talent returning next year is enticing, and it seems that the Dons have found the right mix and identity to find success in the WCC. Defensively, I don't know if they'll ever be elite under Walters. But, if they can at least be average, or slightly below, they could be a real dark horse next year, especially if they continue their offensively efficient play in 2015.<br />
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To be honest, the turnaround is surprising under Walters, and he and his coaching staff have been able to weather through the storm of the Doolin distractions and the lackluster start in non-conference play. Walters at the very least in his tenure has proven to be a solid offensive coach, and his ability to still find success despite the wave of transfers and new players is a good sign of his ability as strategist on the bench. While his recruiting classes haven't generated big buzz in "recruiting circles" (i.e. Rivals or ESPN), he has found good talents in Tollefsen and Pinkins, who fit his system well and are probably better than their subjective "Recruiting Site" ratings. There still is a long way to go, and there is the possibility that USF will still hit the skids and hit rock bottom. We have seen teams already this year in the WCC (LMU and Pepperdine for example) who looked to be dark horse contenders, only to fall back earth due to flaws that they simply couldn't overcome over the long course of the WCC season. USF has those flaws just like any other team (mostly defensively), but Walters has them playing a style of ball that maximizes their strengths (crashing the boards, playing a moderate tempo) while limiting their negatives (questionable shooters, sloppy with the ball). Walters has made an adjustment with his squad this year that many coaches this year in the WCC have failed to do consistently through the progression of the WCC campaign. Its signs like that which should bode good things for Walters and his Dons squads, especially if all of his talent does return as expected next year (which unfortunately for him and Dons fans hasn't been a sure thing, and has been hard to determine if its more of the culture of college basketball or something he's doing internally in the program; I'm starting to believe it's more of the former).<br />
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It may have taken longer than expected, but just maybe, things are looking up and success may be shortly on the horizon for the long-suffering fans on "The Hilltop".Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-17571622094887557122014-01-08T21:10:00.001-08:002014-01-08T21:12:13.295-08:00Data Sheet Analysis: A Look at How WCC Coaches Utilize Their Benches<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://media.wbur.org/wordpress/10/files/2012/02/0216_oag_Randy-Bennett-St-Marys-530x456.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://media.wbur.org/wordpress/10/files/2012/02/0216_oag_Randy-Bennett-St-Marys-530x456.jpg" height="343" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i>If bench minutes history over the past four years means anything, those Gaels in the warm ups know their time on the floor is few and far between with coach Randy Bennett</i></div>
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I was looking up some data on Ken Pom.com (I know I'm addicted to that site), and I found something interesting. This season, many WCC programs rank near the bottom of the nation in terms of utilizing their bench. Only one team ranks in the Top-100 in terms of bench minutes percentage (Pacific), a stark contrast in comparison to years past from WCC teams. While you can access the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At0LL3W3Eyg8dExsWHdBMlZkZkVOaEFjRkFfbGR0TWc&usp=sharing">Data Sheet on Bench Minutes</a> on the <a href="http://catholiccoasthoops.blogspot.com/p/data-sheets.html">"Data Sheets" Page</a>, I'll post the numbers right here to give you a context of the lack of time the bench players see in the WCC.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="120"></col><col width="120"></col><col width="120"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 17px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); direction: ltr; font-weight: bold; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Team</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; direction: ltr; font-weight: bold; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Bench Min %</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; direction: ltr; font-weight: bold; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Nat'l Rank</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 17px;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; direction: ltr; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Pacific</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">37.3</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">65</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 17px;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; direction: ltr; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Santa Clara</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">34.2</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">120</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 17px;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; direction: ltr; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Loyola Marymount</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">33.8</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">130</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 17px;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; direction: ltr; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Pepperdine</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">33.7</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">132</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 17px;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; direction: ltr; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Portland</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">30.6</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">201</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 17px;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; direction: ltr; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">San Francisco</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">30.1</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">217</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 17px;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; direction: ltr; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Gonzaga</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">28.7</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">253</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 17px;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; direction: ltr; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">BYU</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">28.6</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">256</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 17px;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; direction: ltr; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">San Diego</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">27.5</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">274</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 17px;"><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; direction: ltr; padding: 0px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">St. Mary's</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">23.1</td><td style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">333</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Now, there are a variety of reasons why certain coaches utilize their bench less than other rival coaches. For some, it all can depend on a coaches' style. A team that presses more, plays more in transition is more likely to use their bench to keep fresh legs on the court to play to their system. This is the case for a program like Arkansas who leads the nation in bench minutes percentage at 45.3 percent. Mike Anderson, a former Nolan Richardson disciple, plays a full court, high-pressure defensive style (i.e. "40 Minutes of Hell"). In order to maximize his team's effectiveness (especially on the defensive ends), constant bench usage is necessary. Of course, the correlation between tempo and bench isn't always the case as BYU plays the fastest tempo in the nation (77.6) but is in the bottom when it comes to bench minutes usage.<br />
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One big misconception though is that talent depth is a reason for more bench minutes usage. Teams who have more talent on the roster, should surely use their bench more than programs who are thin talent wise. So, if this thought is true, a team like Duke would be utilizing their bench than say a program like Montana State. That isn't necessarily the case. When it comes to the Top-50 for teams who use their benches the most, only six (Arkansas, Purdue, Iowa, Texas A&M, Houston, Georgia, Louisville, Oregon State) came from major conferences, and only one (Louisville) made the NCAA Tournament a year ago (though Iowa was certainly deserving). The same proves to be true in the WCC. The top-3 favorites (Gonzaga, BYU and St. Mary's) in the conference rank in the bottom of the conference in terms of bench minutes percentage while the ones at the top were relative afterthoughts going into the season (though Pacific did make the NCAA Tournament a year ago albeit as a Big West representative, a much weaker conference than the WCC).<br />
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But one year is just one year, right? After all, talent changes quite often and systems may differ depending on personnel. So, I wanted to take a look at which coaches tended to use their benches the most, and which ones did the least. To find this out, I went to Ken Pom.com, found each team's bench minutes percentage from 2011-2014 and then averaged out the four year span. The results are shown in this graph:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1JnE7Zn124o7frfypE8ln2IFc3ijtqI7BQUgr3rOX7_RFuLM4D0nYFH3FPZqcyeoEKCKiRAMukT2JmtabbxB5H6RPZSaz49SWVUOhBJCME_LCrlKQs0C7tQ9ZSnjjpyIW-34j-46s_gV1/s1600/chart_1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1JnE7Zn124o7frfypE8ln2IFc3ijtqI7BQUgr3rOX7_RFuLM4D0nYFH3FPZqcyeoEKCKiRAMukT2JmtabbxB5H6RPZSaz49SWVUOhBJCME_LCrlKQs0C7tQ9ZSnjjpyIW-34j-46s_gV1/s1600/chart_1.png" height="393" width="640" /></a></div>
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As you can see the four year results provide some interesting trends. For starters, Randy Bennett seems to be the leading coach in the WCC who trusts his bench the least. His 26.4 percent four year average for bench minutes percentage correlates to the 23.1 percent bench minutes percentage we have seen from his squad this year (though even for his standards he trusts his bench even less so this year, as it is 3.1 percent below his four year average). Rex Walters has sort of employed the same "shallow rotation" with his Dons squads, as his 29 percent four year average is was second-least in the conference. Considering the amount of transfers Walters has seen in his tenure on "The Hilltop" it's interesting to wonder if his "strict rotation" (or lack of bench utilizaiton) was a reason for a lot of his transfers or just one of the effects.<br />
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LMU leads the WCC in bench minutes percentage over the four year span with an average of 34.1, barely edging out Eric Reveno and Portland who finished with a four year average of 34. Portland's finish is interesting because they never led the conference in bench minutes percentage from 2011-2014, but they finished second in the conference in 2012 and 2013, so that explains their close finish to LMU, who led the conference in bench minutes percentage in 2012 (they had the 37th highest bench minutes percentage in the nation that year as well).<br />
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The most eye-popping case is at Gonzaga with Mark Few as his bench minutes percentages have fluctuated wildly over the past four years. As you can see by his four year average, Few obviously numbers and minutes-wise utilizes his bench a decent amount, but that sharply contrasts from what we have seen this year (hence, their third-place finish in the four year average with an average of 33.7). In 2011, the Zags led the conference in bench minutes percentage at 38.5 percent (30th highest in the nation). Last year, they ranked fourth in the conference but still finished 81st in the nation (2013 was a year for bench players in the WCC as only BYU was outside the Top-200 in terms of bench minutes percentage) with a percentage of 34.8. But Few at times has showed years where he has relatively little trust in his reserves. In 2012, he trusted his bench less than the 4 year average, as the bench only averaged 32.7 minutes and this year, he showed even more of a lack of trust, as the Zags reserves are averaging only 28.7 minutes per game. Now, the lack of depth in the front court could be the main cause of this, but it is interesting to see how minutes have plunged at times in the Zags program, compounded by the fact that they have had many transfers over the past few years which ultimately led to this lack of depth for this Zags squad (just look at Gonzaga transfer Ryan Spangler who is starting for Oklahoma now). Few has showed a short leash with players on the bench, even though his teams have been the deepest in the conference talent-wise for years. Even this year's team has a lot of depth on the perimeter, but as displayed from the numbers, he doesn't utilize them as much as other, lesser-talented teams in the conference.<br />
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All these numbers are up for interpretation and as stated before, there are lots of reasons why certain coaches utilize their bench more or less. Whatever the reason, it is interesting to see the numbers laid out, and see how each coaches' process will fare out for them over the conference season and into conference tournament play and beyond.</div>
Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-69959711475556615552014-01-05T10:40:00.001-08:002014-01-05T10:40:23.249-08:00Analyzing Gonzaga's Defensive Play Against WCC Foes<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<i>Przemek Karnowski (24, white) has helped the Zags be one of the best squads defensively in the WCC</i></div>
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Mark Few has always earned his reputation as an "offensive" coach. Regularly, his teams rank in the top 20-30 in terms of offensive efficiency according to Ken Pom's ratings. He has produced offensively efficient players from the well-known like Adam Morrison and Kelly Olynyk to the lesser-known JP Batista and Kyle Bankhead. This year, the Zags continue to be efficient in the offensive end, as they are rated 10th in the nation with a 117.4 offensive rating this year (which has helped them be rated as the 18th best team in the nation according to KenPom).<br />
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But, the Zags wouldn't be sitting alone on top of the WCC now with a 4-0 record if they were just good offensively. Much to its credit, there are a lot of good offensive teams in the WCC this season. St. Mary's has continued their tradition of producing great offense under coach Randy Bennett (though he is sitting out the first 5 games of conference play due to a recruiting violation issue), as they are posting a rating of 116.5, 13th best in the nation. San Francisco and BYU have also been solid squads on the offensive end, as they are posting ratings of 111.0 and 110.4, good for 48th and 57th, respectively. If there's one thing the WCC doesn't lack, it's an ability to score points (only San Diego is not rated in the top-150 in terms of offensive efficiency).<br />
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What has separated the Zags in conference play so far has been their defensive performance. Despite missing Gary Bell for three games and Sam Dower battling through injuries, the Zags have posted extremely stellar efficiency numbers on the defensive end so far in WCC play (just accounting WCC games). The Zags lead in six of the nine defensive categories on Ken Pom.com, and in two of them they finish second. They are the top team currently in terms of effective field goal against (39.2 percent), turnovers caused (19.4 percent), offensive rebounds prevented (22.3 percent), 2-point percentage against (35.8 percent), block percentage (18.2 percent) and Adjusted Defensive rating (82.2). To put into context how good their start has been from a numbers standpoint, their Adjusted Defensive rating is 19.7 points better than the second-best team (BYU), their eFG percentage prevented is 5.6 percent better than the next best team (Pepperdine) and their block percentage is 4.7 percent better than the next best team (Portland). The Zags have been absolutely dominating teams on the defensive end so far in conference play, and if you don't necessarily buy into the advanced numbers, you can just look at the scores: against two teams rated in the top-40 in Adjusted Offense (USF and St. Mary's), the Zags held them to a combined 92 points and 0.60 Points Per Possession and 0.80 points per possession, respectively. Additionally, against St. Mary's, the Zags held one of the WCC's best and most efficient players, Brad Waldow to only five points and a season low 48 offensive rating (his previous low this year was 103 against George Mason).<br />
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Yes, the Zags' numbers are amazing. However, what makes it more amazing is that they're succeeding in an area where they were supposed to be weak this season. They lost their top-two post players (Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris) from a year ago, and many pundits (including myself), figured the front court was going to be an issue for the Zags this season. While the scoring and offensive production has been inconsistent, defensively it has been a strength for them. Their 2 point percentage against is 5.1 percent better than the next best squad, and one of the reasons for that has been the defensive play of center Przemek Karnowski.<br />
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I tweeted this yesterday after the game:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
God I wish we had SportsVU technology for <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23WCCHoops&src=hash">#WCCHoops</a>...I wonder what <a href="https://twitter.com/PKarnowski">@PKarnowski</a>'s defense around the hoop would look like numbers wise<br />
— Kevin O'Brien (@objesguy44) <a href="https://twitter.com/objesguy44/statuses/419686357661777920">January 5, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
Karnowski has been a bit inconsistent this year on the offensive side (only a 100.2 Adjusted Offensive rating, compounded by a 48 percent free throw percentage and a 100.0 FT rate; lots of chances and low percentages don't result in efficiency). On the defensive side of the ball though, he has given the Zags a true defensive presence that the Zags haven't had before. At 7-1 and 305 pounds, Karnowski is a load in the post and makes it not only tough for opposing WCC post players to get position on him, but he is effective in taking away driving lanes for WCC guards as well. That was especially evident against USF and St. Mary's as not only did he shut down an elite offensive player (Waldow), but he also provided a wall for the Dons and Gaels to get to the hoop, leading to the sub-par performances each team experienced in Spokane.<br />
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Additionally, the subtraction of Olynyk and Harris, while devastating on the offensive end has actually been good on the defensive end, as Karnowski may be a better post presence defensively than either of them, especially Olynyk (who was the true center last year). Numbers wise Karnowski bests Olynyk in terms of block percentage (8.6 to Olynyk's 5.1) and defensive rebounding percentage (24.2 to Olynyk's 20.5). But even on the tape, Karnowski shows excellent instincts for a post man, as he knows what to do well and understands how to use his body as a wall to protect the hoop, even if he may not be the most athletic big man in the WCC. One of the problems for Olynyk was that he would get out of position at times on the defensive end, which would not only hurt in terms of allowing points at the rim, but also make the Zags vulnerable to allowing second chance shots. That hasn't been the case with Karnowski this year. He stays his ground well and is able to do just enough to get in the kind of defensive position to take away easy shots in the paint (something you couldn't always say out Olynyk). And, to make things better, Karnowski doesn't sacrifice rebounding position to defend shots, and this has been a reason why the Zags have been much better at preventing offensive rebounds this year than a season ago (32.2 percent offensive rebounds prevented rate, third best in the WCC).<br />
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That being said, Karnowski is not alone in terms of helping the defensive effectiveness of this Zags squad. With the Polish center taking away the middle with his solid frame, strong defensive instincts and ability to limit second chances shots (he has a team high 24.2 defensive rebounding percentage, 63rd in the nation), his presence has complemented the Zags' perimeter defenders nicely. The biggest surprise contributor has been 6-5 wing man Kyle Draginis who has seen an uptick in playing time since Bell's injury. Draginis has the length and speed to frustrate opposing guard, and it has been obvious that the defense has improved since he has earned more minutes in the absence of Bell. Furthermore, his 2.5 steal percentage has been a nice surprise for a team that leads the WCC in turnovers caused percentage. Of course, Draginis has not been the sole reason for their superb play on the perimeter defensively. David Stockton, though out matched at times physically, continues to be a pesky defensive player, as he is second on the team in steal rate at 3.3 percent. Gerard Coleman, who was buried for a while on the bench until he earned more minutes with Bell's injury, leads the team in steal percentage (3.6 percent) and has the kind of wing span that belies his size (6-4) and makes him a matchup problem at times for opposing guards. And Angel Nunez may be the biggest wild card of all, as he has the size and length to guard smaller forwards on the perimeter or small post players in the paint (though strength-wise, that is still a question). The bottom line? The Zags have all kinds of weapons on the perimeter, and the presence of Karnowski and a healthy Dower down low make those wing players able to be more aggressive on the defensive end, knowing they have that presence in the paint taking away the drive at the basket.<br />
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At the end of the 2006 season, it seemed like Few was at a crossroads in terms of what to emphasize defensively as a coach. Though he has produced good defensive squads his first years, in 2005, they ranked as the 4th best team in the WCC in terms of defensive efficiency and they rated as the third-best team in the WCC in 2006. The reason? He had excellent offensive players in Adam Morrison and JP Batista and it seemed that the Zags went into contests with the idea that they could simply outscore and provide just another defense to win. There was some success with this model, as they did reach the Sweet 16 in 2006 and lost to a team that eventually went to the NCAA Championship in 2006 (UCLA). Instead though of preferring that style, he has recruited more defensively talented and inclined players since the Morrison-Batista era (they haven't ranked below second in defensive rating in the WCC since 2006) and that is still relevant today, even with the WCC offensively probably at its most talented in comparison to years past. The Zags are not just able to scrap by defensively, but they have showed that they are able to dominate squads (and good offensive squads) in the WCC. In a conference where there is much more parity than in years past, the Zags emphasis and ability on defense this year may be the chief reason why they rise above the pack for another consecutive season.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-78488363036614398832014-01-04T20:15:00.001-08:002014-01-04T20:15:49.139-08:00Recruit Report: Josh Perkins, 6-3, 185 pounds, Gonzaga commit<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="281" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/SPuxJybvGjM" width="500"></iframe><br />
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One of the highest profile recruits coming into the WCC next year is Gonzaga commit Josh Perkins out of Huntington Prep High School in Huntington, West Va. If the name of the school sounds familiar it should be, as former high profile recruits Andrew Wiggins and OJ Mayo played high school ball there during their senior seasons (Huntington has effectively become the next Oak Hill Academy, which was famous for getting senior transfers from all over the nation; the list include Carmelo Anthony, Josh Smith and DeSagna Diop to name a few). Originally from the Denver, Colorado-area, Perkins looks to be the kind of player that could continue Gonzaga's great tradition of producing effective guards.<br />
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<a href="http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/112141/josh-perkins">ESPN currently rates Perkins as the 38th best recruit in the nation</a> according to their Top-100, and also considered UCLA and Minnesota before signing with the Zags. Even though Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell are most likely going to return for the senior seasons, Perkins looks like he could be a good sixth man off the bench next year for the Zags as a guard, especially with longtime and popular point guard David Stockton graduating this year.<br />
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<b>What they are saying about Perkins</b><br />
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From <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/recruiting/player-Josh-Perkins-126836">Rivals.com</a> (graded him a four-star recruit and 46th best in the nation)<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 16px;"><i><span style="font-family: inherit;">"A very flashy playmaker from Colorado who sees open teammates pretty much anywhere on the floor. Whips passes with either hand and makes plays in transition. On offense he favors pull-up jumpers and sometimes settles. Opponents who can really move laterally can bother him."</span></i></span></blockquote>
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From <a href="http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=5879663" target="_blank">Scout.com </a>(graded him a four-star recruit and the fifth-best point guard in the nation)<br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="background-color: white;">"More than anything, Perkins is a sensational passer. He makes the difficult ones look easy and can make the easy ones difficult, but his abilities in this regard are indisputable. Perkins also is a talented scorer. He doesn't draw as much praise for that for that ability and understandably so, but he knocks down three-pointers on the high side of screens and shoots well setting himself up off the dribble."</span> </i></span></blockquote>
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From <a href="http://www.slipperstillfits.com/2014-gonzaga-recruiting/2013/8/24/4645658/josh-perkins-selects-the" target="_blank">Slipper Still Fits</a> (Gonzaga SB Nation Blog)<br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="background-color: white; color: #292929; line-height: 24px;">"Perkins is undoubtedly one of the highest rated recruits to ever commit to Gonzaga. He had offers from outstanding programs across the country, most notably UCLA, Minnesota, Connecticut, Arizona, and Stanford. He received significant interest from Kentucky, Syracuse, and Kansas as well. He is currently a top-30 prospect on both Scout and Rivals which is similar to where Austin Daye was rated and slightly higher than where Matt Bouldin checked in at when he arrived at Gonzaga."</span></i></span></blockquote>
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<b>Catholic Coast Hoops Quick Analysis</b><br />
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When you watch Perkins on tape, he is just a phenomenal passer. He simply has an uncanny ability to find the open man with extraordinary quickness and accuracy. If anything, he reminds me a lot of a taller Sebastian Telfair with his ability to handle the ball, drive and find his teammates with ease (and I do NOT use that comparison frugally; I watched Jonathan Hock's "Through the Fire" like a dozen times). While I do not have stats on his current shooting stats, scouts rate him as a solid shooter, and his form looks good on tape, as he is able to pull up and shoot the jumper quickly when his team is in transition. Scout.com also raved about his 3-point shooting, rating it as one of his strengths as a player along with his passing and court vision.<br />
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The Slipper Still Fits, which has been following him in person for a good while (one of the main writers of the blog lived in Denver and used to see him when he was still going to high school in Denver), remarked he was one of the highest profile recruits since Austin Daye (Daye was one of the first truly "High Profile National Recruits" the Zags signed, though some argue Jeremy Pargo holds that honor since he was a pretty highly rated recruit of Chicago). I sort of agree with the assessment, though I think Kevin Pangos and Przemek Karnowski would have been rated higher had they been "American" recruits (both guys played for the international squad in the Nike Hoops Summit their senior years, which is just slightly below the McDonald's All American Classic in terms of prestige). Nonetheless, Perkins is a legitimate recruit, and much like Daye back in 2007, I believe Perkins will be making plenty of buzz when he arrives on campus next Fall (or technically Summer, since most basketball recruits come to take classes in the summer to get a head start). Because of Pangos and Bell's presence next year, I don't think Perkins will break out as a star or have the kind of immediate impact those two had when they arrived. That being said, I think he'll be a key factor in the Zags' rotation his rookie campaign and earn a sizable chunk of playing time that will develop him to have his true breakout in his sophomore season.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-22134574071408389652014-01-03T09:49:00.001-08:002014-01-03T10:33:18.152-08:00Pepperdine Experiencing Sudden Wave of Success<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<i>UCLA senior transfer Brendan Lane (right) has been a pleasant surprise for the up-start 3-0 Waves</i></div>
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It has been a while since the Pepperdine Waves have achieved success in basketball, as the program has had quite a history in terms of producing some successful coaches who earned their stripes in Malibu. Jim Harrick led his team to multiple NCAA Tournament berths before he took over at UCLA and won a national title (and committed multiple violations there as well as other stops at Rhode Island and Georgia). Lorenzo Romar built a key foundation for the Waves before he took the St. Louis position (and then eventually Washington's, his current spot). Jan Van Breda Kolff led the Waves to a surprise Sweet 16 appearance before leaving for St. Bonaventure in 2001, and Paul Westphal led his team to a 21-win season and NCAA Tournament berth in his first year. The bottom line? The Waves have had talent and success in the past with their teams.<br />
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Recently though, time have been pretty rough for the Waves. After a successful first season with Van Breda Kolff's players (including Brandon Armstrong), Westphal failed to reach success, as he hovered at or around .500 for three seasons before going 7-20 in his last year. Dribble-Drive Motion Offense guru Vance Walberg took over for Westphal in 2006, promising that his high octane offense (which John Calipari adopted at Memphis and was successful for Walberg at Fresno City College) would help the Waves make an impact in the WCC. Defensively though, the Waves struggled in his first year (they rated 308th in the nation in defensive efficiency in 2007-2008) and after a 6-12 start in his second year, Walberg stepped down. Former Waves coach Tom Asbury stepped up to take over the program that season and stayed on as head coach for three more seasons, but Asbury was unable to rekindle the success of his first tenure (1988-1994), and he too stepped down early on in the 2011 season.<br />
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Now, the man in charge is Marty Wilson. Wilson has achieved mixed success so far as the Waves' head man. Wilson went 3-10 as interim filling in for Asbury, and in his first two seasons, he went 22-31. Though he brought in some talent like Stacy Davis, who earned WCC Newcomer of the Year last season, many figured the Waves to hover near the bottom of the WCC.<br />
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So far, the Waves have been the biggest surprise in the WCC this year. They are 10-5 to start the season and 3-0 in conference play with big wins over BYU at home and Santa Clara on the road. On the offensive end, the Waves have excelled in conference play so far, as their 114.8 offensive rating and 46.6 3 point percentage are the best marks in WCC play, and their 52.9 eFG percentage is rated 2nd. For the season, Pepperdine hasn't been a WCC fluke either, as their offensive rating for the year is 108.5, 77th best in the nation, a vast improvement on their 96.4 mark a season ago.<br />
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How has Wilson and his Waves experienced so much success? We all know about Davis, sure, but the production of center Brendan Lane and guards Jeremy Major and Malcolm Brooks has been a key reason why the Waves are sitting at the top of the WCC standings along with Gonzaga. Lane, a senior transfer who languished on the bench at UCLA, has been a revelation in the post this year, as evidenced by his numbers: 124.1 offensive rating, 63 percent effective field goal percentage, 10.4 offensive rebounding percentage, 8.2 block percentage. So far, Lane's production has been up there with higher profile players in the conference like St. Mary's Brad Waldow and Gonzaga's Sam Dower. That being said, unlike Waldow or Dower, Lane hasn't been affected by injuries or ineffective nights, which has happened to both players as of late.<br />
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Major and Brooks' production has also been a God send for Wilson's team. Brooks, though he is not a "primary" ball handler (16.5 usage rate), has been effective when he does have the ball in his hands, as evidenced by his 125.3 offensive rating and 58 effective field goal percentage. The best aspect of Brooks' game though has been his ability to take care of the ball, as he only has a turnover percentage of 8.4 for the year (in comparison to an assist rate of 13.6, a +5.2 percent difference). As for Major, the Freshman guard has been an extraordinary playmaker for the Waves as he is sporting a 29.9 assist rate along with a usage rate of 22.3. Major still has the same freshman problems in terms of taking care of the ball (19.9 turnover rate), but he has showed the ability and aggressiveness to keep the Waves productive on the offensive end of things. Add these three with Davis, who is posting a better season than his lauded freshman year (<a href="http://catholiccoasthoops.blogspot.com/2013/12/three-under-radar-players-wcc-fans.html" target="_blank">which I noted in this post</a>), and the Waves have a starting lineup that can compete with any squad in the WCC.<br />
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A lot of props though has to be given to Wilson, who has eased off the reigns a bit in his third year as head man in Malibu. He has let his newcomers play and experience the early mistakes and successes that come with being young players. Furthermore, he has let them play a more wide open game, as evidenced by their 66.7 Adjusted Tempo, which is 2.9 points higher than a year ago and 4.8 points higher than his first full year as head coach. The initial preference for a slower, more half-court oriented game is not surprising considering his tenure as an assistant under Asbury and at Utah under Ray Giacoletti and Jim Boylean (both slower-tempo coaches). However, by trusting his players more and letting them play a more full-court style, the Waves have been much better offensively, as their 108.5 offensive rating is 12.1 points higher than a year ago and 15.2 points higher than his first full year. Give Wilson credit when credit is due: he adjusted to the talent he had on his roster, and it has paid dividends in his third year.<br />
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Now, can Wilson lead the Waves to a WCC crown (either regular season or tournament)? It is tough to say after three games, but to be frank, they have as good a shot as anyone. While Gonzaga's defense probably will carry them to another WCC championship of some sort (ether regular season, tournament or both), the Waves are not much different than other competing squads in the WCC (which at this point, looks like everyone). They are good offensively, and inconsistent defensively (they rank 241st in the nation in AdjD). That kind of profile will probably keep them in every game in the WCC this year, but it could also lead to letdowns as well (as evidenced by LMU and Santa Clara last night). I think the post presence of Lane and Davis, and the development of Brooks and Major on the perimeter will be key factors to watch this year. If Brooks and Major especially can continue the progress they have made this season, then it's definitely in the realm of possibility to think that Pepperdine could sneakily be the second best team in the WCC. They may not be better than Gonzaga, but they certainly could give anyone else fits (not to mention a loss or two).Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-55908533854709693212014-01-01T19:06:00.003-08:002014-01-01T19:09:21.013-08:00Can the Gaels' Offense Carry Them to a WCC Crown?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<i>Brad Waldow is in the Midst of A Career Season and Has Helped the Gaels Be One of the Best Offensive Teams in the Nation</i></div>
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We have seen some early surprises already this year in the WCC: BYU and Portland are off to 0-2 starts, Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount off to 2-0 starts, etc. Yet one thing that has remained the same is Gonzaga and St. Mary's being cemented at the top, as they are a combined 3-0 going into their match up Thursday night in Spokane. The Zags have looked inconsistent on the offensive end in their home wins over Bay Area schools Santa Clara and USF, but the defense looks vastly improved with the addition of Angel Nunez to the lineup. The improved D was on full display against the Dons, where they held a team rated in the Top-50 according to Adjusted Offense to just 0.60 points per possession. Currently, the Zags rate 82nd in the nation in Adjusted Defense thanks to their last two performances (they were in the low 100's going into the slate against the Broncos and Dons).<br />
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St. Mary's on the other hand bounced back offensively against the scrappy Pacific Tigers, as they beat the Tigers 88-80 in front of a pro-Tigers crowd in Stockton. While the Tigers are new to the WCC, the win is nothing to shrug off for Gaels fans: Pacific was a tournament team a year ago, and they were 9-2 and rated 110th in the nation according to Ken Pom going into the contest. However, after three straight losses in Hawaii (to teams rated in the 100's at the time of their games), the Gaels were clicking on all cylinders on the offensive side of the ball. The Gaels scored 1.33 points per possession and didn't have a regular player under 110 in terms of offensive rating. Furthermore, they also took care of the ball (only eight turnovers to the Tigers' 11) and were able to create plays in the halfcourt, as evidenced by their 18 total assists for the game (compared to the Tigers' eight). Even though the game got close toward the end, the Tigers were hard-pressed to come back in the second half, as the Gales were up as many as 13 with 2:26 left in the game.<br />
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Offensively, there is no question St. Mary's may be the most efficient team in the conference and arguably the country. The Gaels play the slowest tempo in the WCC (64.6 pace), but they remain in a similar mold to Gaels teams of the past: great outside team shooting and a good post player who can get it done inside and keep opposing teams honest. We all know about players such as Mickey McConnell and Matthew Dellavedova who could absolutely torch opposing teams from outside the arc. But, it was the presence of post players like Omar Samhan and Rob Jones that made those guys, and the St. Mary's offense, effective as well. It was the presence of such an inside-outside combo that made the Gaels a difficult team to defend on a nightly basis.<br />
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This year, coach Randy Bennett hasn't changed things much. The Gaels still have effective shooters, as evidenced by guards Stephen Holt, James Walker and Kerry Carter, who all have 50-plus three-point shot attempts this year (and none have a 3 point percentage less than 43 percent). Furthermore, Beau Levesque, has proved to be a Daniel Kickert-esque forward who has been effective inside (55.3 eFG percentage) and outside (43.6 three point percentage). Thus, it makes sense that not only are the Gaels one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country (43.3 percent, 4th best in the nation), but that they rely on the three point shot for a good portion of their points as well (32.6 percent, 54th highest percentage in the nation).<br />
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But the glue that puts it all together and has made the Gaels so effective offensively has to be big man Brad Waldow, who is posting an insane 134.5 offensive rating and 64.2 effective field goal percentage with a usage rate of 26.1 percent (highest on the team). To put Waldow's junior campaign into context, Waldow's offensive rating, if the season ended today, would be almost 16 points higher than Samhan's best year (his junior season in 2009) and his eFG percentage would be almost 10 points higher than Samhan's best mark as well (Samhan's junior season). Considering Samhan's impact and legendary status with the Gaels, the fact that Waldow's junior year has made Samhan's best year pale in comparison bodes high hopes that the Gaels can be WCC contenders as long as Waldow can maintain this kind of efficiency over the course of conference play.<br />
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For the year, the Gaels rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive efficiency (118.2). That being said, their defensive inefficiencies make this a vulnerable team at times, as evidenced by their performance in Hawaii. Statistically, the Gaels ranked 176th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive efficiency according to Ken Pom. While they defend beyond the arc reasonably well (they allow a 29.8 percent three point percentage, 42nd best in the nation), they struggle to defend in the paint, as they rank 182nd in the nation in 2 point percentage allowed. Compound that with mediocre steal (235th in the nation) and block (148th in the nation) and it makes sense numerically why the Gaels rate so lackluster on the defensive side of things.<br />
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When you watch the Gaels in person, it makes sense why they struggle to defend teams at times. As good as Waldow is, athletically he doesn't strike an intimidating presence. Much like Samhan, he has that "un-athletic" build, and he can get beat to the hoop or fall asleep defending his area in the zone at times. He doesn't possess elite jumping or shuffling ability, and the fact that he is able to post the rates that he does not just in terms of scoring, but rebounding and defensively, is a minor miracle. Waldow isn't alone though, as the Gaels do struggle at times to match up with more athletic players or teams, whether it is in the post or even perimeter (though less likely in the latter). This is evidenced by the Gaels creating a lot of fouls as a team, as they just aren't able to keep proper defensive position due to their disadvantages athletically. The Gaels are allowing teams to average 44.5 free throw attempts a game, which is 4 points higher than the national average and 240th in the nation. The Gaels draw a lot of fouls themselves (they average 46.5 free throw attempts per game), but their tendency to foul a lot and not get a lot of steals either display the struggles they will face in WCC play this year against more athletic, "drive it to the hoop" squads.<br />
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That being said, the Gaels have overcame this lack of athleticism and size before. They thrashed second seeded Villanova en route to the Sweet 16 even though the Wildcats had obvious athletic advantages over the Gaels with players such as Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher and Antonio Pena (who were all on the Final Four squad a year ago). Last year, Middle Tennessee State was a popular pick to make a deep run due to their athletic defensive-oriented squad. And yet, the Gaels were still able to pull off a 67-54 win in the "play-in" first round game. The Gaels may not impress people with their roster or when one takes a look at them in warm ups, but its obvious that they are magicians in terms of creating offense and getting points, and Bennett deserves a lot of credit for maintaining that kind of consistency even though the players he's recruited haven't athletically been much better than former Gaels in years past.<br />
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So, can the Gaels be able to win a WCC regular season and/or tournament crown with their current approach? It will really come down to how they play against Gonzaga this year, who is not only in their ballpark offensively (they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offense) but are better defensively than the Gaels, especially with the addition of Nunez, whose long frame presents a lot of match up problems in the Austin Daye and Micah Downs mold. St. Mary's though can certainly make a statement on Thursday, as the statuses of Sam Dower and Gary Bell are in question, and if the Gaels can light it up early, it may be tough for the Zags to come back with two of their go-to guys out. However, a loss for the Gaels wouldn't hurt them dramatically, as they will have another shot at the Zags at the end of the year on March 1st (last regular season WCC game of the year).<br />
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While St. Mary's will probably improve defensively over the course of the year (though how much is a question), they will need their offense to have a shot in the WCC and to earn a NCAA Tournament berth. Bennett has done this before with similarly made up squads, and though they may not have the "elite" guard like Paddy Mills, McConnell or Dellavedova from seasons past, the scoring balance they show on the perimeter, and the presence of Waldow, who is having a massive season efficiency wise, will probably keep this team in the WCC Championship hunt. The defensive issues are glaring statistically and in terms of the eye test, but I don't think they are bad enough to keep this St. Mary's squad from finishing any worse than second in the WCC (especially after BYU's start).<br />
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<br />Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-8860732124739970702013-12-31T08:23:00.002-08:002013-12-31T11:39:21.701-08:00Why Kevin Pangos May Be the Greatest Guard in Recent Gonzaga History<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/mPMad0GyfH0" width="480"></iframe><br />
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<i>Awww...memories</i></div>
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First off, I am a Gonzaga alum. My dad wasn't a Gonzaga alum, but he went to Gonzaga for his first three years of undergrad (he finished at USF, where my grandfather went, so USF always feels like a second-favorite team to me). I lived in Spokane for six years when I was little. So, maybe I am biased toward Gonzaga in some small subtle ways when evaluating WCC teams (though I have gotten better at respecting the WCC as a whole over the past few years; hence the creation of this blog). However, if there is one thing I know, it's Gonzaga basketball history. I remember a day when John Rillie and Kyle Dixon were the starting backcourt for the Zags (Yes, Rillie and Dixon. I'm sure a lot of WCC basketball fans just sports referenced those two). I'm not just a recent fan of Gonzaga who started liking the Zags because of the Adam Morrison days or if you're real hardcore, the Dan Dickau days. I've seen Gonzaga when they've been great and I've seen them when they were fair-to-middling (I don't remember the days when they outright sucked, which is always exaggerated in my mind; Gonzaga wasn't Gonzaga back then, but people who say the sucked grossly overstate it; they were more like Portland is now). I've seen games when they used to sport the Royal Blue and Red (wish they'd go back) and I remember when they had a coach who used to get so fired up that he made Mark Few look like an altar boy in comparison (Dan Fitzgerald, RIP, who unfortunately was pushed out acrimoniously due to a funding issue when he was AD).<br />
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So, when I say guard Kevin Pangos may be one of the greatest guards, perhaps even the greatest in Gonzaga recent history, I am not shooting this from the hip. This isn't a knee jerk reaction. I loved Blake Stepp and Derek Raivio. But Pangos may be better than either of them, and this year, statistically he is proving it. He not only could be the reason the Zags win the crown in a suddenly wide-open WCC, but he could be the reason why they stay competitive on the national college basketball scene.<br />
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First off, I am only going to compare Pangos to guards who played at Gonzaga from 2003 on. It's the furthest Ken Pom stats go back. I wish I could go back further, but I don't have the time, stats or resources to compare guys like Dickau or John Stockton or Matt Santangelo to Pangos (on a knee jerk suspicion, I say Pangos is definitely better than Santangelo, maybe same level as Dickau and slightly worse Stockton; Stockton really didn't become legendary until he went to the NBA, though he was pretty good at Gonzaga). One of the projects I hope to do is do some historical statistical analysis on some classic WCC teams. I don't have the time now, but that is something that could happen in the summer, which would make comparisons or posts like these all the more interesting and valuable.<br />
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Now, if you have not noticed, statistically, Pangos is having a season that is teetering on legendary when it comes to offensive efficiency. His Adjusted offense according to Ken Pom is 139.2, which is top in the WCC for anyone with at least a 20 percent usage rate. While Gary Bell is close to him at 138.1, Bell's rating benefits from his extraordinary shooting touch (as he has displayed all three seasons at Gonzaga). But, Bell doesn't touch Pangos in terms of creating plays for his teammates as well as taking care of the ball. The difference between Bell's assist and turnover rate is +4.4. Pangos? +12.2, highlighted by a 20.7 assist rate. This isn't a fluke either, as Pangos' difference last year was +2.9 while Bell's was -3.6.<br />
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What makes Pangos so great is how he has developed his game since coming to Gonzaga. In high school, Pangos earned a lofty reputation for his ability to shoot from the outside, carry a rather thin team talent-wise and go toe-to-toe with future phenom Andrew Wiggins. If you <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f84CrDPoLuI" target="_blank">watch this video</a>, Pangos scored at will against Wiggins' Vaughn team when Wiggins was a frosh. You can see Wiggins eventually switch to guard Pangos after Pangos starts lighting up the Vaughn squad. But even though Wiggins had obvious physical advantages over the smaller guard, Pangos was still able to make Wiggins and Vaughn pay en route to a game high 48 points.<br />
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Pangos has showed a similar ability to drop an obscene amount of points at times. He scored 34 points against Arkansas in the Maui Classic this year, and obliterated a Washington State Cougars team with 27 points as well. But, his game has evolved and that what makes the possibility of Pangos being legendarily great in the Gonzaga lore possible. He has lowered his turnover rate to under 10 percent this year after past rates of 15.7 and 16.5 his sophomore and freshman seasons, respectively. His effective field goal percentage has risen to 60.5 after being 54.9 percent a year ago. He is getting to the line more than a year ago (33.3 free throw rate in comparison to the 26.2 rate last year). And he is doing this with more minutes than in years past (his 85.2 minutes percentage is a career high so far), and a higher usage rate (21.0 usage rate this year). Some players, who get the uptick in usage and minutes struggle to keep the same efficiency they had when they had the ball less in their hands and when they were on the floor less. Not only has Pangos maintained the same efficiency, but he has actually gotten better, which they needed from him after they lost go-to guy Kelly Olynyk from a year ago.<br />
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But when you compare what he's doing in the lore go Gonzaga history, what Pangos is doing is amazing. Yes, Pangos and Bell could possibly make the best guard-combo Zags fans have ever seen, but what Pangos is doing by himself is pretty darn special. Blake Stepp's best season in adjusted offense came in 2003-2004, where he posted a rating of 117.1. Derek Raivio's best season was 122.7 in 2006-2007, but he only posted positive assist to turnover rates only twice in his career (and in his 2006-2007 season, the difference was only +.5). Jeremy Pargo never posted a turnover rate less than 20 percent and consequently his best season efficiency-wise was his senior year when he had a rating of 107.1 (better than his WCC Player of the Year junior season actually). Matt Bouldin's best year came his junior year when he posted a 119.1 offensive rating, but he also struggled with turnovers over the course of his college career, and he actually regressed in his senior year (his rating fell to 115 his last year). And Steven Gray? After a sophomore campaign when he posted a 120.1 offensive rating, he struggled with more minutes, as he failed to post offensive ratings over 109 in his junior and senior campaigns.<br />
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As you can see, there are a lot of names up there, and a lot of quality guards who have had immense impact and success in their tenures with the Zags. And yet, neither of them can touch Pangos' 139.2 offensive rating, and very few have showed the upward progress Pangos has made from his freshman year to his current state. Pangos came in more as a shooter and he has developed more into an overall player that can step up when needed. He has been overshadowed the past couple of years by upperclassmen and bigger stars, but now that Pangos is asked to shine, he has lived up to the hype and then some. If the Zags want to make the tournament, win another WCC title and perhaps make a run deep in the tourney, then they are going to have to lean on Pangos to make it happen, especially with Sam Dower and Bell's health an issue at this point.<br />
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And you know what? It most likely will happen, because Pangos has been that good this year and stepped up his game that much. Despite the flaws and question marks of this Gonzaga team, Pangos has continued to keep this Gonzaga team humming and currently cemented in its familiar place in the WCC: the top.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-13533424957001779072013-12-30T00:00:00.000-08:002013-12-30T00:00:09.752-08:00Can Pacific Make a Statement Against a Reeling St. Mary's?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<i>Khalil Kelley (center with ball) and the Tigers Can Make A Strong First Impression in the WCC With a Win Over St. Mary's on Monday</i></div>
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At first, I wasn't totally sure about the decision to include Pacific in the WCC starting this season. For the longest time, the prime candidate to round the conference number at 10 seemed to be Seattle University, who used to be a basketball powerhouse (Elgin Baylor went to Seattle) and were looking to rekindle some of their lost luster with the hire of Cameron Dollar and the move from Division II to Division I a few years back. Add that with the fact that they were also a Jesuit Catholic school (like USF, Santa Clara, LMU and of course, Gonzaga), the move seemed natural for the Redhawks.<br />
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Instead, the school in the Northern California from the Big West was given the invitation, not Seattle, and while the "non-Catholic" school count in the WCC rose to three (including Pepperdine and BYU), the decision so far to include the Tigers seems to have been a sound one. The Tigers, under first year coach Ron Verlin are 9-2 to start the year with wins over Utah State (ranked 72 in KPR), Fresno State (154 in KPR) and UC Irvine (110 in KPR). While the Tigers were blown out by Oregon and Princeton (lost by 20 plus in both contests), they have showed that they should be taken seriously in conference, even though the WCC is a big step up in competition over the Big West.<br />
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Pacific will get a chance to make a statement on Monday against a St. Mary's squad that is reeling after three straight losses in Hawaii (South Carolina, Hawaii and George Mason) at the Diamond Head Classic. The Gaels continue their holiday travels on the road, and going to Stockton won't be a walk in the park for this 9-3 Randy Bennett-led squad. After all, both San Diego and BYU had their troubles in their first conference road contests of the year, as they dropped games to underdog squds Pepperdine and LMU, respectively. While it will be difficult to say how the home environment at the Spanos Center will be with this Christmas Break still in progress, it won't be an easy contest for a Gaels team that is probably road weary after a lot of travel and a rough tournament showing in Hawaii. Even Ken Pomeroy thinks this game has tremendous potential, as he rates it as the 4th best game of the day with a thrill score potential of 56.6.<br />
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But, this really isn't about the Gaels. Yes, the Gaels need a win to rebound after a tough stretch. They need to stay ahead early on in conference play, especially since the conference seems so wide open with BYU's recent loss and the Zags struggling in the post with Sam Dower out due to injury. That being said, this game is equally important to the Tigers. With a win, they suddenly have a chance to snag a WCC crown that many people thought was well out of their reach in the preseason. With a loss, they may prove again to be another WCC team that feasted from a relatively soft non-conference schedule.<br />
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So what are the Tigers' chances in this one? Ken Pom has this one close, as he projects a 74-73 win in favor of the Gaels, and gives the Tigers a 45 percent chances of winning. Those are good odds for the Tigers, even better than the odds the Lions had going into Saturday's contest against the Cougars. But, looking past the individual game itself, this is a vastly different Tigers squad from previous squads under long-time coach Bob Thomasen, and it'll be interesting to see if this "new-look" Tigers squad can continue to develop and earn a big-time win under their first-time head coach.<br />
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Verlin was a long-time assistant under Thomasen, so he is familiar with the program and the style that Tigers have preferred over the years. Under Thomasen, the Tigers were a slow-it-down team, their pace usually ranking in the low 60's on an annual basis. This year, with full-control of the reigns, Verlin has elected to speed it up, as the Tigers have increased their Tempo to 68.7, which is higher than anything Thomasen has done since 2003 (the furthest Ken Pom's stats go back). The plan to play a faster-kind of ball has worked well to the Tigers' advantage, as they have been efficiently offensively, as evidenced by their 109.0 Adjusted Offensive rating, which is 69th best in the nation. They have shot the ball well beyond the arc this year (38.3 percent, 58th best in the nation), and have been overall a pretty solid shooting team, as evidenced by their 51.4 effective field goal percentage, which is just outside the Top-100. The faster pace has also made this Tigers a deeper team as well, as Verlin has relied heavy on his bench this year, as he utilizes his reserves 37.1 percent of the time. Considering how heavy Gonzaga and SMC have relied on their starters this year, the deeper Tigers may have an advantage over the long course of the season thanks to the experience the reserves earned during their non-conference slate.<br />
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Offensively this is a better team than the one that made the tournament a year ago (they had a 104 rating last year). But defensively, there are still issues that make one wonder how "real" the Tigers are. Last season, the Tigers ranked in the Top-100 in steal and block percentage. This season? They are 139th in block percentage and 269th in steal percentage. They have some size on their team, as evidenced by their +1.3 effective height rating and the presence of players such as 6-10 senior Tim Thomas (who leads the team in block percentage at 5.9 percent) and 6-8 forwards Tony Gill and Khalil Kelley. That being said, how the Tigers will adjust on the defensive end of the court may be the key to whether or not they separate themselves from middle of the pack in the WCC. The WCC has a lot of offensively-proficient squads, with St Mary's and Gonzaga continuing that tradition (both rank in the Top 15 in Adjusted Offense), and San Francisco displaying amazing ability and efficiency on the offensive end (they rank 31st) if not on the defensive side of things (317th in adjusted defense). Pacific certainly can play with the best of them in the WCC when it comes to putting the ball in the hoop. Whether or not they can prevent other conference teams from putting the ball in the hoop will determine whether they are a possible 20-win squad, or just another middling team that hovers around .500.<br />
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There is some talent on this Tigers squad that makes a possible WCC crown possible. 6-7 senior Ross Rivera leads the team in offensive efficiency at 118.1, highlighted by a 60.6 true shooting percentage and 40.8 free throw rate (made better by his 90 percent FT percentage). Kelley has been a beast on the offensive glass, as he is posting a 16.4 offensive rebounding rate, 25th best in the nation. And though senior guard Samu Taku hasn't necessarily been the most efficient player on this Tigers squad (96 offensive rating), he has improved from a year ago (91 offensive rating) and his numbers should improve if he can find the better shooting touch he displayed from a year ago (37.1 eFG percentage this year in comparison to the 43.5 percent he shot last year).<br />
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Sometimes, when a long-term assistant takes over a program, their are some growing pains and some coaches rarely realize the success of their predecessor and mentor. Ed DeChellis (who took over at Rhode Island for Jim Harrick) and Bruiser Flint (who took over at UMass for John Calipari) are prime examples of long time assistants who couldn't match their former coach's success. Verlin has a long way to go, and as stated before, the Tigers feasted on a non-conference schedule that probably could make even the most mediocre of coaches look good. That being said, St. Mary's will be a good barometer check not only for Verlin, but this Tigers squad in general. An upset win, and Pacific will announce to the WCC world that their seasons debut may be the start of something special for years to come.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-67762210176168619122013-12-29T00:38:00.000-08:002013-12-29T00:38:24.454-08:00Could LMU Actually Be Legit Contenders in the WCC?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<i>Max Good is Letting His Players Play, and That Has Had a Solid Effect on This Squad</i></div>
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As expected, the LMU-BYU game proved to be a doozy, as it ended up being an up-tempo affair (78 possessions total in the game), in front of a surprisingly pro-BYU crowd (not surprising considering the whole BYU being the premiere Mormon university, the strong Mormon populations on the West Coast and the LMU student body being on break). Despite these factors though, the Lions ended up whipping the Cougars 87-76 in a game where the Cougars only led once (5-4 at the 16:52 mark in the first half) and were down as much as 21 (63-42 with 14:05 in the second half). The underdog Lions had a 30.8 win probability in this one according to Ken Pom.com, but they looked like the better squad all game, thoroughly outplaying the WCC favorite (they earned 1 first place vote in the coaches preseason poll) on the first day of WCC play.<br />
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With the win, college basketball fans are certainly going to take more notice of the Lions now, and it is possible that the Lions could be dark horses for the WCC crown if this first game was any indicator. The Lions' combo of up-tempo play (72.1 pace), offensive efficiency (108.7 adjusted offensive rating) and ability to create second-chance opportunities (38.2 percent offensive rebounding rate, 31st best in the nation) make them a strong challenger to the traditional WCC contenders like Gonzaga and St. Mary's. And while BYU certainly has had their share of issues this year (mostly on the defensive end), I think the loss to LMU may have less to do with BYU's struggles (they are still rated in the Top-60 according to Ken Pom after the loss), and more to do with LMU's potential (they jumped up to 120 in the KP ratings; they were previously 141st).<br />
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And what is LMU's potential? To be honest, it is still early to say, and the USD game will be a strong indicator of whether the Lions are for real or not (the true test of a good team is not just winning the big games, but winning the games following those big wins; USD, though they lost to Pepperdine tonight, is still a quality squad and present a style that won't suit LMU as well as BYU). However, I give a few reasons why the Lions could be a sleeper candidate to swipe the WCC Crown from the traditional powers.<br />
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<b>1.) LMU Has Quality Talent, and a System That Caters to Their Strengths</b><br />
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You have to give it to coach Max Good. This may be his best coaching job yet, and if he continues to coach in conference like he did today, I think he'll help this Lions squad acquire an unusual amount of success. For starters, the Lions like to run and play a fast-tempo game. However, it's the way the Lions do it is what makes it fascinating. Good places a strong trust in his players, and lets them create for themselves and settle into the game naturally. This plays to their strengths, because this team has a lot of talented players, especially on the offensive end. Anthony Ireland, though he cooled off over the course of the game, got off to a good start that set the tone for this Lions team. Evan Payne achieved a 118 rating with 27 points. And the best stat of all? Only 7 team turnovers, a 9 percent turnover rate in comparison to the Cougars' 16.7 percent turnover rate.<br />
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Usually teams that are given more free reign are more prone to turn the ball over, so most coaches hesitate to do so. But, it's obvious that Good has the team meshing to the point that he can be more hands off, and not worry about the consequences as much. He can do that because players like Ireland, Payne and even bench guys like Chase Flint and Marin Mornar have strong abilities and instincts as players, and that was on full display today as they just outplayed BYU in almost every aspect today. LMU will be fun to watch this year, a stark contrast to their more defensive-oriented, grind-it-out years the past few seasons under Good (the only other year their tempo was over 70 under Good was in 2010). That being said, the Lions will also be competitive in addition to entertaining if they continue to play with efficiency like they did today against BYU.<br />
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<b>2.) LMU's Style Will Give the "Power Squads" Fits</b><br />
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I figured that LMU, playing their up-tempo style would be their own worst enemy, as BYU did it way more often (they're tops in pace in the nation) and against a better non-conference schedule as well. I figured teams like Portland and San Diego, who play much slower halfcourt-oriented styles, would be tougher opponents for the Cougars than the Lions, whose style resembles theirs. I was dead wrong. Not only did the Lions not change their style of play in this game, but they did it better than BYU. They dared BYU to play up-tempo and they ended up showing that they could do it better than the Cougars. Give it to Good and the Lions. That's a ballsy move, as some coaches may have opted to slow it down to get the Cougars in a funk. Instead, the Lions threw the uppercut and hurt the Cougars early, and BYU was just never able to recover.<br />
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And, in addition to getting a quality win, the Lions also showed that this style will be troublesome to Gonzaga and St. Mary's as well. As evidenced by Sam Dower sitting out today, the Zags have serious questions with their size, and not only do the Lions have the guards (Payne and Ireland may be the most underrated combo in the WCC right now) to match up against the Zags' combo of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, but I don't know how the Zags will fare on preventing offensive rebounds (which LMU does well) without Dower in the lineup. Maybe Dower will be healthy by the time they play, but his absence makes this Zags team extremely vulnerable to this Lions squad. As for St. Mary's, they have showed defensive inefficiencies all season, and that all got exposed at the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii (three losses). The Gaels will have to outscore the Lions to win it seems unless they make progress on the defensive end. That "outscore them" strategy didn't serve BYU well today and I'm not sure the Gaels are that much better offensively than Cougars.<br />
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<b>3.) The WCC is "Wide Open"</b><br />
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Maybe LMU will fall back to earth on Monday against the Toreros. But, if they win, then they could put themselves ahead of the pack and set the tone in the WCC. As displayed in the Santa Clara-Gonzaga game today, the Zags are not the "Dominant" Zags of last year or even a couple of seasons ago. They are very thin and flawed in many areas, and this is a prime opportunity for a team like LMU to expose them. Same goes with St. Mary's as they are coming off a disastrous showing in Hawaii. Furthermore, this conference is experiencing strong parity, as the lowest-rated team in the WCC (Pepperdine) according to Ken Pom beat San Diego, which is rated in the top-half of the conference in Ken Pom's ratings. There are no cupcakes right now in the WCC, and while that is good for the league overall, it also makes the possibilities of this being a multiple-bid league challenging (I guarantee the top team will have at least two conference losses, maybe more).<br />
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Maybe LMU just had a good game against the Cougars, and they'll regress to being a middle-of-the-pack WCC team this season (I honestly do believe anybody is beatable in the WCC right now). After all, they did play lights out on the offensive end (1.12 points per possession), and BYU may just be worse than a lot of people initially thought. However, the talent and offensive firepower is there for the Lions, and with a conference that is suddenly experiencing such parity at the moment, I think those two factors will bode well for the Lions to make a surprising run in conference play.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-77947561942951010742013-12-28T09:01:00.000-08:002013-12-28T09:04:04.970-08:00Recruit Report: T.J. Haws, PG, 6-4, 170 pounds, BYU Commit<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/CBwP8RRktVg" width="480"></iframe><br />
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I'm not going to go into to much detail here on these reports. These are more just to familiarize WCC fans with some players who are on the horizon and spur some discussion about what players are going to have an impact in the coming years. There will always be video on the recruits, which is important because I want people to gain their own impressions from what they see on tap and furthermore, in this day and age of media an technology, is pretty easy to acquire.<br />
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The first on the Recruit Report is TJ Haws, a <a href="http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/view/espnu100/sort/rank/class/2014" target="_blank">top-100 national prospect according to ESPN.com</a> committed to play at BYU next season. He is a local kid from Highland, Utah, so it is no surprise that he has committed to Dave Rose's program. Rose has traditionally produced some good guard products out of Provo (Jimmer Fredette the prime example), and Haws looks like he could fit in well witRh the Cougars' up-tempo, offensive-heavy system.<br />
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<b>What They Are Saying About Haws</b><br />
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From <a href="http://future150.com/hs/basketball-profiles/tj-haws-sg-2014" target="_blank">Future 150.com</a> (graded him a 91, four-star recruit):<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>T.J. is a scoring sniper from anywhere on the floor. He is the type of prospect who will thrive in a system like BYU. He also will be able to play both guard positions for the Cougars.</i></span></span></blockquote>
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From <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/evaluation/_/id/143696/tj-haws" target="_blank">ESPN.Com </a>(graded him an 84, four-star recruit):<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>Haws is a long and lean wing that is very productive and competes on both ends of the floor. He has a excellent mid range game. He knocks down mid range jumpers off the catch or dribble and is a very underrated driver/slasher. </i></span></span></blockquote>
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From <a href="http://rivals.yahoo.com/duke/basketball/recruiting/player-T.J.-Haws-131465" target="_blank">Rivals.com</a> (rated him a four-star recruit):<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>The BYU bound point guard is a playmaker. He can be a dangerous scorer because of his jump shooting and toughness off the dribble. Changes speeds, is elusive and fires up crowds with his at times flashy passing. Just has to get stronger.</i></span></span></blockquote>
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<b>Catholic Coast Hoops Quick Analysis</b><br />
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Haws could be next in line in the tradition of great guards who have come from the WCC, as he displays all the skills and abilities of a good point or shooting guard. On the surface, Haws doesn't look athletic, but he is very crafty not only in his ability to get to the rim and create his own shot, but in creating for others as well. On the tape, it looked like there were some matchups where he might have been at a disadvantage, but he is very quick with the dribble and he has good vision with the ball, as he was able to find the cutting open man with ease if defenders collapsed on him. His jump shot is consistent-looking and smooth, and he is able to shoot well off the dribble from what I've seen on tape, and his release is quick enough to where he only needs a little bit of space to get a successful shot off.<br />
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His size is a bit of an issue since he is thin at 170 pounds, and many scouts have noted that he needs to add strength. I don't think this is too pressing a negative since college programs are usually good at strengthening players once they get to campus. Overall, Haws looks to be an entertaining player worthy of his Top-100 status as a recruit, and he certainly will make the Cougars a competitive and dangerous team in 2014-2015.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-80659601474497769902013-12-27T09:22:00.000-08:002013-12-27T09:27:38.637-08:00Ranking the Saturday WCC Opening Slate<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<i>Two years ago, the Lions beat BYU 82-68 in Provo; can the Lions Do It Again in LA Saturday?</i></div>
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WCC conference play officially begins Saturday with four games. With a slew of others college games worth watching tomorrow (Syracuse-Nova and Louisville-Kentucky, especially), I wanted to rate the WCC games in order of "watch-ability" (I know it's not a word, but let's just go for it; and if you want some music while reading this, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtI_YwVkbUk#t=88" target="_blank">check this out here</a>...you're welcome).<br />
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<b>1. BYU Cougars (8-5, 46th in KPR) versus LMU (8-4, 142nd in KPR), at Gersten Pavilion, Los Angeles, Calif., 1 PM PCT.</b><br />
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I can't stress enough how awesome this game is going to be. I know it's on at the same time as Kentucky-Louisville, but if you really do care about WCC Hoops, you're going to TIVO that Blue-Blood classic and watch this game instead. Here's why:<br />
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1.) There's going to be lots of points<br />
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BYU plays the fastest tempo in the nation at 78.6. LMU is currently 19th in the nation in adjusted tempo at 73.1 Ken Pom projects the score to be 93-88 in favor of BYU. I mean seriously, for WCC fans yearning for the days of Hank Gathers, Bo Kimble and "The System" this is about as good as its going to get. Neither team is very defensively inclined, and both teams will get theirs on the offensive end. At the very least, this game is going to be in the low 140's in combined points and could get up to the 180's, maybe more. BYU's Matt Carlino and LMU's Anthony Ireland both like to chuck it up (Carlino has a 31.1 shot percentage and Ireland has a 27.7 shot percentage), so whoever has the better night from the field (and both players have had their history of inconsistency despite being centerpieces of their respective tams) could put their squad over the top. If you like offense (as I do), then watch this game, even if it requires you to go on the <a href="http://thew.tv/" target="_blank">W.TV site</a>. (And hey, you can have this on your computer playing if you must insist on watching Calipari-Pitino).<br />
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2.) Could set the tone for one of the teams as a conference dark horse<br />
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Statistically speaking, BYU has been very good, but pretty unlucky (-.071 in luck factor according to Ken Pom, 298th in the nation). They like to play fast, and they have been relatively efficient on the offensive and defensive end (hence their 46 ranking despite being 8-5). LMU on the other hand has benefited from a relatively soft schedule, and their best win was a 20-point runaway at home against Cal Poly. Good is in a crucial year from a contract standpoint, and he can make his case for an extension if he can have LMU be competitive and finish in the Top 3 in the WCC (he certainly has the tools due it with Ireland a senior and leading the charge). As for BYU, a big win, and they may separate themselves from the pack as legitimate contenders to dethrone St. Mary's and Gonzaga for the WCC Regular Season crown.<br />
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<b>2.) San Diego Toreros (9-4, 139th in KPR) versus Pepperdine Waves (7-5, 204th in KPR), at Firestone Fieldhouse, Malibu, Calif., 5 PM PCT</b><br />
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It'll be a battle of styles in this one as San Diego's defensive, grind-it-out game will go against Pepperdine's more offensive-oriented squad. Pepperdine is ranked in the top-100 in many offensive categories, including 2 point percentage, 3 point percentage and effective field goal percentage, while San Diego is ranked defensively in 2 point percentage against and 3 point percentage against. Both play relatively slow tempos (San Diego's tempo is 66.4 and Pepperdine's is 67.6), so it will be interesting to see if Pepperdine will be able to be successful on the offensive end against a Bill Grier squad that puts such a strong emphasis in preventing points to earn victories. Ken Pom projects this to be close, as he predicts a 69-68 slugfest in favor of the Waves.<br />
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A key match up will be in the post as San Diego's Dennis Kramer will match up against Pepperdine's Brendan Lane. Both have been extremely efficient on the offensive end this year (Kramer has a offensive rating of 122.8 and an eFG% of 63.3 and Lane has a rating of 121.0 with an eFG% of 63.5), so it'll be interesting to see who'll take advantage and have an upper hand in the post. Kramer's size could be an issue for Lane, as he has two inches on the Waves senior, but Lane has been the more physical player over the course of the year as Lane posts a better offensive rebounding percentage (11.4 to 9.6) and block percentage (8.3 to 2.9) than Kramer. Whoever wins this match up will be key in helping their team to victory, and it'll be interesting to see if Lane can continue his effectiveness down low against the much bigger Kramer.<br />
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<b>3.) Santa Clara Broncos (7-6, 175th in KPR) versus Gonzaga Bulldogs (10-2, 27th in KPR), McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, Wash., 6 PM PCT</b><br />
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Ken Pom actually rates this as the least interesting WCC game of the day, as he projects an 83-67 beatdown in favor of the Bulldogs. While statistically I don't question the reasons for the projection, I am going to call the under on that projected point spread. The Broncos have traditionally played okay in the Kennel over the past decade, and though Santa Clara has had their fair share of issues this year, they still have some talent on the board. Furthermore, the seriousness of Sam Dower's injury and the lack of frontcourt depth for the Zags makes this a very vulnerable team. Add in the factor that they are coming off an emotional loss to Kansas State in Wichita as well as the unpredictability of Christmas Breaks that puts a lot of teams in funks (see St. Mary's at Diamond Head) and I just don't really see the Zags beating the Broncos by 16 or more points.<br />
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Another reason to watch is a match up that features arguably two of the best guards in the WCC. Kevin Pangos has established himself as a go-to guy for the Zags, as he is posting a 138.1 offensive rating, tops for the team and WCC for players who are used on 20 percent or more possessions. Brandon Clark has been more effective as a playmaker this year (almost a 10 point decrease in turnover percentage from a year ago), which has resulted in him improving his offensive rating to 119.5. Now, Clark hasn't faced a guard like Pangos this year, but it'll be interesting to see if the junior guard from East Chicago will be able to hold his own against the WCC Player of the Favorite in front of a raucous Kennel Crowd (though to be honest it'll be a down crowd due to the Christmas break and most students being home; another boost in the Broncos' favor).<br />
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<b>4.) San Francisco Dons (7-5, 179th in KPR) versus Portland Pilots (8-4, 101st in KPR), Chiles Center, Portland, Ore, 7 PM PCT</b><br />
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Portland is coming off a pretty good win over Princeton (65th in KPR at time) on a neutral court, so the Pilots are looking to transition that momentum into their first WCC game of the year against the Dons. As for USF, they are looking for a decent win, as they have no wins over teams who are in rated in the top 120 according to Ken Pom (their best win is over Cleveland State at home; CSU was rated 121st).<br />
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A lot is at stake here this conference season for both coaches (USF's Rex Walters and Portland's Eric Reveno), as it could be their final WCC campaigns if they have lackluster finishes. Both have had seasons of success and 20-plus wins, but both are coming off years where their teams under-performed badly. While both have had decent starts record-wise to start the year, a winning record in conference play this year would do wonders in helping them keep their current positions. A key area to victory will be the offensive glass, as USF has been great in terms of getting second chance opportunities (35.4 offensive rebounding percentage, 80th best in the nation), while Portland has been good at preventing them (27.7 percent allowed, 43rd in the nation). Kruize Pinkins has been a beast on the offensive glass this year, as his 16.7 offensive rebounding rate is 26th best in the nation. The Pilots will need to neutralize the athletic forward down low and match his energy to boot. Luckily for the Pilots, they have a guy who may be able to match Pinkins in senior Ryan Nicholas, who is not only sporting a 27.5 defensive rebounding rate, but an 11.3 percent offensive rebounding rate as well. It's going to be a slugfest down low on the glass between Pinkins and Nicholas, and if Pinkins can overcome and outplay the senior forward, it could lead to a big upset for the Dons (Ken Pom projects this game to go 86-77 in favor of the Pilots).Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3351316177932680124.post-4901197319675581822013-12-26T11:30:00.000-08:002013-12-26T11:30:25.709-08:00Three Under-the-Radar Players WCC Fans Should Know AboutAs teams finish up their Non-Conference slate and get ready for WCC conference play, there have been many players that have jumped out on the national and even local radar to begin the year. Brad Waldow has been having a tremendous impact on the offensive end of the court for St. Mary's (though defensively he still raises a few questions), and Kevin Pangos has emerged as the Zags' "Go-to-guy" following the departure of Kelly Olynyk.<br />
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However, who are some players that may have gone under the radar this year in the WCC? Who are some playmakers that could have an impact on the wide-open WCC? (And yes, it's more wide open than in years past, but remember...the WCC has been traditionally a top-heavy league since the emergence of Gonzaga). Let's take a look at three guys WCC Fans Should Know About as conference play begins this Saturday.<br />
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<b><a href="http://kenpom.com/player.php?p=20595" target="_blank">Kruize Pinkins, junior, USF, six-feet, seven inches, 230 pounds</a></b><br />
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Pinkins, a JuCo transfer from Chipola College in Florida, has immediately made an impact in his first year on the "Hilltop". An athletic power forward, Pinkins has made his name as a bit of a highlight show, known for some sensational dunks that made appearances on some <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvDxYKdrhJ0" target="_blank">national hoops Mix Tapes</a>. But, Pinkins is more than just an Ira Brown-esque player (guy who is known for sensational dunks and little else), as he has made a tremendous impact on the offensive end for the Dons off the bench.<br />
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<a href="http://kenpom.com/playerstats.php?s=ORtg&y=2014&f=WCC" target="_blank">According to KenPom.com</a>, Pinkins is tops in efficiency for players who have at least 28 percent of possessions used at 110.3. Though he has primarily served as a role player, Pinkins has seen an uptick in minutes over the course of the year, as he has only had one game where he played under 20 minutes since the Idaho State game (the fourth game of the year). The increase in minutes has served the Dons well, as they have gone 5-3 over that stretch.<br />
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In the Dons' offense, the ball stays in Pinkins' hands when he is in, as evidenced by his 28.7 possession percentage and 26.1 shot percentage, both nationally ranked numbers according to Ken Pom. That being said with an effective Field Goal Percentage of 54.2 and true shooting of 56.1, Pinkins is not a black hole of shooting by any means, and really scoring is not the sole reason he makes this list. With his athleticism and size, Pinkins brings a lot of energy and productive play off the bench beyond points, and that shows in his rebounding numbers, blocks and ability to draw fouls. The area where Pinkins' is most successful is on the offensive glass, as his 16.7 offensive rebounding percentage is 26th best in the nation. His ability to crash the boards, and create extra opportunities for the Dons not only has helped the team's offensive effectiveness, but has gotten him to the line as well, as Pinkins is drawing 8.5 fouls per 40 minutes, seventh highest in the nation. Pinkins still has some work to do at the line (58.2 FT precentage), but his aggressiveness will serve him and the Dons well against many WCC teams who have rebounding and size issues.<br />
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Yes, Pinkins came to USF known as a "MixTape Player" (i.e. one who showcases highlight dunks or plays but no consistency), but he has developed into the kind of all-around player that could contend for WCC Newcomer of the Year honors by year's end.<br />
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<b><a href="http://kenpom.com/player.php?p=13440" target="_blank">Brandon Clark, junior, Santa Clara, six-feet, 170 pounds</a></b><br />
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If the Broncos want to make any kind of run to earn a postseason berth of any kind this year, they are going to have to rely on junior guard Clark to do so. However, Clark has been one of the most efficient players int he WCC this season, as the East Chicago, Indiana product has made tremendous progress as a players since arriving to Santa Clara a few seasons ago.<br />
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While senior guard Evan Roquemore has gotten more of the hype, Clark has been the one that has taken over as the "Go-to" guy for the Broncos. For the season, Clark has an adjusted offensive rating of 119.5, with an effective field goal percentage of 50.3 and a true shooting of 56.8. What has made Clark so effective, even with the high number of possessions used through him (25.9 percent), is his ability to not only create for others, but limit mistakes as well. This season, Clark has an assist percentage of 26.6 percent, 181st in the nation. Even more impressive though is his 11.9 percent turnover rate, which is not only 281st best in the nation, but almost a 10 percent improvement from his sophomore season. The fact that Santa Clara not only has their point guard creating plays at an incredible rate but keeping care of the ball as well should bode for some surprising success in WCC play, even if SCU is down from a year ago.<br />
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Clark also remains a decent 3-point shooter (38 percent), good considering he has a shot percentage of 27.2 percent. Though another strong aspect of his game that stands out even more is his ability to be aggressive and get to the hoop and draw fouls. Clark average 5.1 fouls per 40 minutes, and unlike Pinkins, he is able to make teams pay for it, as he is shooting 84.4 percent from the charity stripe this season. With his strong ability to hurt teams from beyond the arc or at the line, and his ability to be efficient in playmaking, Clark could be a dark horse for WCC Player of the Year Honors, and at the very least should be in the mix for All-WCC 1st team honors.<br />
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<b><a href="http://kenpom.com/player.php?p=15965" target="_blank">Stacy Davis, sophomore, Pepperdine, six-feet, six-inches, 245 pounds</a></b><br />
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Davis was almost not included because he did earn Newcomer of the Year Honors last season, and was expected to compete for All-WCC first team honors after a successful freshman campaign. But, Davis has made such a leap in his sophomore season, that I do not think some WCC fans know how good Davis is. Considering this program has produced a lot of players who were big on name (Keion Bell and Mychel Thompson), but hollow on effectiveness, Davis bucks the trend for the Waves as somebody whose accolades and reputation match his efficiency on the court.<br />
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This year, Davis has improved all over the board as a player. His effective field goal percentage (58.5) is almost 14 points better than from a year ago, and his true shooting percentage (62.3) is almost thirteen points better as well. Furthermore, he has cut down on his turnovers (15.9 percent turnover rate, 5.1 percent less than a year ago), and he has gotten to the free throw line more as well, as he is drawing 6.4 fouls per game, a free throw rate of 68.6 (which is 121st best in the nation). And, with the more chances at the line, Davis has also been relatively effective, as his 70.4 free throw percentage, while not great for a guard, is serviceable for a bigger forward. With all these factors in the play, Davis sports a 114.2 adjusted offensive rating for the year, which would be a 20.3 point improvement from his Newcomer-of-the year campaign.<br />
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Of course, I don't know if Davis will have a major impact on this team, since the Waves have so many issues (mostly defense) that I think will get exposed when WCC play begins. Furthermore, Davis' rebounding numbers have gone down (his offensive rebounding dropped 1.5 percent and his defensive rebounding dropped to 19.4 percent this year from 19.9 a year ago), so I wonder if Davis is focusing a bit more on his scoring than his overall game this season. Nonetheless, those are ticky-tack issues, and only a sophomore, Davis has sparked a lot of hope for long-suffering Waves fans. Additionally, he went from a dark horse All-WCC candidate to a strong contender as long as he continues this new Wave of efficiency on the offensive end in conference play.Kevin O'Brienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.com0