Wednesday, March 30, 2016

A Look at What Broncos Fans Can Expect from Herb Sendek

Santa Clara hired Herb Sendek (above) to a six year deal on March 28th. Sendek formerly coached at North Carolina State and most recently at Arizona State until 2015.


So it seems official, Herb Sendek is going to be the new head coach for the Santa Clara Broncos. Shortly after the Pacific Tigers made a splash by hiring former NBA star and Arizona Wildcat Damon Stoudamire, the Broncos replaced the outgoing Keating, who had only two winning campaigns in his nine-year tenure at Santa Clara, with a proven head coach who has won in the MAC, ACC and Pac-12. In an earlier post, I felt Sendek was a good fit because of his proven resume not just as a head coach, but as a recruiter in the West Coast, and it looks like the Santa Clara administration ponied up the money and got the best guy for the job.

Let's take a look at some of the positive and negatives of Sendek coming to not just Santa Clara, but the WCC in general.


Positives of Sendek at Santa Clara

Sendek coming to the Broncos is a big boost for the coaching community in the WCC. Sendek has bountiful head coaching experience at the Division 1 level, as he has led three schools (Miami of Ohio, NC State and Arizona State) to the NCAA Tournament under his watch. He has a career record of 413-295, and he has only had a losing season three times in his 22-year coaching career. That is pretty damn impressive no matter how you cut it. When it comes to success on the court, Sendek has the kind of resume that can compete with the big coaching names in conference such as Mark Few of Gonzaga, Randy Bennett at St. Mary's and Dave Rose at BYU. That profile alone will make Santa Clara a bigger name not just in conference circles, but in national media circles as well. Do not be surprised to see the Broncos' name thrown out a lot in preseason magazines simply due to Sendek's name alone.

Another strong aspect of Sendek's profile is his ability to recruit, as he has been able to get sneaky good polished talent to lead his teams, both at NC State and Arizona State. With the Wolfpack, he was able to land Julius Hodge, who led them to a Sweet 16 appearance in the NCAA Tournament in 2005 and an 11-win ACC campaign and NCAA Tournament second-round appearance in 2004. At Arizona State, he most famously landed James Harden and had him stay for two seasons. Harden had a solid college career with the Sun Devils, leading the to the NCAA Tournament second round his second year. Furthermore, Sendek also brought in top talent like Jahii Carson (who led them to a tournament berth in 2014) and Jamelle McMillan (the son of former NBA player and coach Nate), so recruiting in the West Coast is something that Sendek is not only familiar with, but has a history of succeeding at considering the circumstances (Arizona State tends to lean more toward football and even baseball in terms of fan attention).

And lastly, the style of play typically seen from Sendek's teams plays well into the WCC's "wide-open" reputation. Though Sendek teams play typically a slow pace (only in his last two years did they have a tempo that ranked in the Top-150 when it came to speed), they are extremely perimeter-oriented and rely heavily on the 3-point shot. In terms of 3-point attempt percentage, his ASU teams ranked in the top-100 seven out of his nine years as a head coach (the lone exceptions being 2012 and 2015, his last year), and ranked in the top-15 in that category in 2009 (11th) and 2010 (9th). The fact that Sendek embraces the 3-point shot is a good sign for this Santa Clara team going into next year, as his philosophy plays well into what the Broncos have done offensively as of late under Keating. Since 2011, the Broncos ranked in the top-100 in 3-point attempt percentage every season. Considering Sendek is an accomplished coach whose teams' offensive efficiency, according to Ken Pom, have always ranked in the top-100 (with the exception of 2012, 2011 and 2007, his first season at ASU), the fact that he will be taking over a program that has played his style of basketball (being perimeter-oriented and relying on the 3-point shot) in the past half-decade or so is a good sign that the coaching veteran can pull a quick turnaround of sorts in his first season with the Broncos.


Negatives of Sendek's hire at Santa Clara

As with any coaching veteran who comes from a big school to a small school, the question for Sendek perhaps is not "if" he will pull a coaching turnaround but how long will he stick around when he achieves the first successful season in a while at Santa Clara (and by successful I mean NCAA Tournament berth). Though Sendek spent a lot of time in the West Coast at Arizona State, he is not a West Coast guy. He was born and raised in Pennsylvania, and he went to college in Pittsburgh at Carnegie Mellon. His jobs at Miami of Ohio and even NC State played more into his background than the Arizona State job, and many critics of his felt Sendek wasn't successful at ASU because he didn't fit into the mold of what is expected from a "West Coast" coach (i.e. he didn't make the necessary connections to have lasting recruiting impact there).

So with this being known, what if Penn State comes calling if Sendek succeeds early at Santa Clara? What about Pitt or another school in that rust belt area? Will Santa Clara's "fun and sun" of the South Bay be enough? Or will Sendek itch to be in a bigger conference at a bigger school should they come calling? That will be a major questions with Sendek going forward, simply because he doesn't have the kind of ties that could keep him long-term at Santa Clara unlike Gonzaga's Few (Oregon) and St. Mary's Bennett (Arizona) who grew up geographically close to their jobs, and Rose, whose personal background (being Mormon) is a major tie to him staying at BYU.

Another issue with Sendek is that his teams have had a history of not necessarily living up to expectations. Despite being a constant NCAA Tournament participant, his NC State team never made it past the Sweet 16, and that happened in his second to last year there, and they were sub-.500 in ACC play that season as well. At Arizona State, too many bad losses marred years where they could have been potential at-large participants, and as a result, his Sun Devils teams only made the NCAA Tournament twice in his 9 years there. And lastly, Sendek was mostly known for his 8-38 record at NC State against conference rivals Duke and North Carolina. While beating Duke and UNC is no easy task it makes you wonder how Sendek could do against Gonzaga and St. Mary's who own the WCC in a similar way to Duke and UNC in the ACC. Was Sendek's lackluster record a matter of luck, or is Sendek simply the kind of coach who can only maintain a mid-tier or slightly above program no matter the conference (his Arizona State teams never won a Pac-12 title under his watch) he is coaching in? If Sendek wants to make a splash and get Santa Clara to where it hasn't been since 1995 (the Big Dance), then he is going to need to go through the conference favorites to do so, and Sendek doesn't necessarily have the history to show that he can topple the best in conference over the whole course of a season.


What to expect from Herb?

Yes, Sendek did not have much success against Duke and North Carolina. Yes, he only made the NCAA Tournament twice at Arizona State. Yes, he is more of an Yinzer than a Beach Bum and that doesn't bode well for him "finishing" his career as a Bronco. But Santa Clara made a great hire nonetheless and one that I think will make them competitive immediately or at the least within the next three years. Sendek's a proven offensive coach whose style will mesh with the program currently, but the conference as a whole, which favors the outside-oriented game. It'll be interesting to see if Jared Brownridge, the Broncos' best offensive player the past couple of seasons, will stay in Santa Clara his senior season, as well as other major contributors, including guards such as to-be-sophomore KJ Feagin and to-be-junior Kai Healy and to-be-senior post Nate Kratch. If Sendek returns those players, it is entirely possible to see the Broncos as a bit of a dark horse, as Sendek's system and philosophy as a coach most likely will fit into the talent he will have next season.

But the big question though is if those guys will stay. In this day and age, it is a lot easier for a kid to go to another program after a coaching change than stick it out, especially in the Broncos' star player's case. After all, Brownridge may not be willing to go through the growing pains in what could be his last year as a collegiate player. It may be too big of a risk, and Sendek has had times before where he didn't mesh with star players (he kicked his top returning scorer at Arizona State in 2012 for "unacceptable content").

That being said, if Brownridge does stay, along with everyone else? Don't be surprised to see Santa Clara make some kind of run in the WCC in 2017. Sendek is that polished a coach and the situation and talent fit is that good for him next year.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Can a NIT Championship Redeem BYU's Season?

A NIT Championship would be big for senior Kyle Collinsworth (above) and the BYU Cougars after missing out on the big dance. However, they will have to get by a good Valparaiso team in the NIT Semis first.


It has been a bit of a disappointing season for Dave Rose and the BYU Cougars, who failed to make the NCAA Tournament for only the second time since 2007 (the other time they missed was in 2013). Considering they had all-around Swiss Army knife Kyle Collinsworth returning, many figured the Cougars would at least challenge Gonzaga and St. Mary's for the WCC crown or at least an at-large NCAA Tournament berth. Unfortunately, though the Cougars posted a respectable 22-9 record and 13-5 mark in WCC play in the regular season, their campaign was marred by some head-scratching losses.

On November 16th, their second game of the year, they lost 66-65 to a Long Beach State team that ranked 90th overall according to Ken Pom. However, that was only the tip of the iceberg as the Cougars also lost to Portland (ranked 212th according to Ken Pom) 84-81 and Pepperdine (139th) 71-65 on the road and Pacific (233rd) 77-72 at HOME (safe to say, the loss to the Tigers, who were playing with an interim coach, pretty much sealed the deal when it came to their candidacy as an at-large selection). The Cougars had some good wins on their resume, including beating Gonzaga in Spokane and St. Mary's in Provo, and over New Mexico and Northern Iowa (a tournament team) on a neutral court. But the bad losses just haunted them throughout the year, and that was a key reason why they weren't even hoping for an at-large spot on Selection Sunday.

Luckily for Cougar fans though, BYU did not take participation in the secondary-tournament as a slap in the face or a measly consolation prize. Unlike St. Mary's, who was throttled against Valpo on the road in the third round of the NIT, the Cougars made the Final Four of the NIT at Madison Square Garden, where they will face the same team that easily dispatched the Gaels a week earlier. Let's take a look at the Cougars' prospects and what a NIT championship would mean to BYU going forward.

NIT Championship Outlook

BYU has gotten some good wins in a NIT tournament that was loaded with worthy opponents who certainly deserved at-large consideration. They easily beat UAB, who was the regular season Conference USA champion (and whose coach is now the head man at Stanford) 97-79 in the first round of the tournament, and won an 80-77 nail biter against a much improved Virginia Tech team that will look to be a dark horse next year in the ACC under Buzz Williams, the former Marquette coach who will begin his third season next year. But the biggest win was over a Creighton team that looked a whole lot better statistically (ranked 40th in Ken Pom) than their record (20-15). In an up-tempo shootout (76 possessions) in Provo, the Cougars outscored the Jays 88-82 to clinch a Final Four spot in Manhattan.

Now, the Cougars will go against a Crusaders team more known for their defense than offense, something that the Cougars really didn't see so far in the early round of the NIT (all the teams had higher adjusted offensive ratings than defensive ones). Valpo's 92.7 points per 100 possession adjusted defensive rating was 8th best in the nation, and was key in big wins for them this year over the Gaels, Oregon State and Iona (the last two being NCAA Tournament teams). Unlike the Cougars, who like to push the tempo and get off quick shots as evidenced by their 74.2 adjusted tempo (11th fastest in the nation) and 14.5 second average possession length (7th fastest in the nation), the Crusaders prefer a slower, more half-court-oriented approach. Head Coach Bryce Drew's (yes, this same Bryce Drew) squad posted a tempo of 67.2 (263rd fastest in the nation) and had an APL of 17.6 (206th fastest). That being said, just because they are slower in their approach doesn't mean the Crusaders are a "throw it in the paint" kind of team. Instead, they are a very perimeter-oriented squad that can torch teams from beyond the arc. 32.4 percent of their points come from 3-point land and they play a pretty deep bench, as their 36.1 bench minutes percentage is 71st highest in the nation. Add that with an experienced squad (they are the 31st most experienced team in the nation) and some key players in combo forward Alec Peters (his 129.5 offensive rating was 13th best in the nation) and senior guard Keith Carter (his 29.3 assist rate was 98th highest in the nation) and the Cougars will certainly have their hands full tonight. The matchup between Peters and Collinsworth will be an interesting one to follow as whoever has the better night could be crucial in whether or not their team will garner a berth in the NIT Championship game.

If the Cougars do get by Valpo, a potential old-school MWC matchup with San Diego State is a possibility, as the Aztecs face George Washington after the BYU-Valpo tilt. Much like the Crusaders, Steve Fisher's squad relies on defense, as they ranked 2nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (89.9). Without a doubt, whether it's tonight or in the Championship, BYU will have to make their shots and pick it up on the defensive end against two very good defensive squads. The Cougars like their fast pace-style, as they have only played in 5 games this year where the possession mark was under 70. In order for the Cougars to maintain that pace, they are going to need to own the glass and generate turnovers on the defensive end, since Valpo (and maybe San Diego State) won't exactly feed into BYU's "early shot" tendencies.


What a NIT Championship Will Mean

The NIT isn't the NCAA Tournament, make no mistake about that. However, while BYU's chances seemed shot after their loss to Pacific, Valpo and San Diego State were two teams who had legitimate beefs with the NCAA Selection committee. Valpo beat Oregon State and was ranked 31st in the nation (almost 30 spot higher than the Beavers) according to Ken Pom. San Diego State was the best MWC team by far and was ranked 32nd in Ken Pom Ratings. If BYU can beat both of those teams on a neutral court, not only will it be a satisfying end for Rose's squad and make up for a disappointing campaign in the regular season, but it would be a nice way for Collinsworth to end his Cougar career after missing out in the Big Dance his senior season.

Of course, this won't be easy. As stated before, Valpo beat St. Mary's by 16 and held them to 0.75 PPP, one of their lowest totals of the season. The Crusaders can get after it defensively, and if the Cougars struggle to hit shots, that will make things very difficult at MSG. Collinsworth is the key sure, but the Cougars will need perimeter players such as Vandy transfer Chase Fischer and freshman Nick Emery to step it up offensively and defensively if they want to have a shot at winning this thing.

Yes, the WCC only gained 1 NCAA Tournament berth this year. But a Sweet 16 appearance and a NIT Championship? Well, that would be something to build on for next year and not just for Rose's program (he will still have returners in Emery, Kyle Davis, Corbin Kaufusi, and Zac Seljaas next season, meaning they have a good shot to compete for a WCC title next year), but the WCC as a whole.

Monday, March 28, 2016

NBA Bound? Why Gonzaga's Domantas Sabonis Should Declare for the Draft

Domantas Sabonis was key to the Zags' success in March and should be a NBA first round pick this upcoming draft.


If you want to understand how the Zags were a minute away from going to the Elite Eight, look no further than the triumvirate of guard Eric McCllelan, forward Kyle Wiltjer and center Domantas Sabonis. In the six games the Zags played in March (in which they went 5-1), the three players all took Ken Pom MVP awards in the games they played, with McCllelan earning three (Utah, St. Mary's and Portland), Sabonis earning two (Seton Hall and Syracuse) and Wiltjer one (BYU). The combination of McCllelan's streaky scoring and tough defense, Wiltjer's offensive versatility and Sabonis' post scoring and rebounding presence made these Zags tough to beat in March, and after Syracuse's upset win over Virginia to earn a spot in the Final Four, it definitely makes you wonder what could have been possible had the Zags took better care of the ball in the closing minutes in Chicago.

While there is no questioning the three's impact in the past month, one of these players will be the sole focus of Gonzaga fans' attention and that is Sabonis. McCllelan and Wiltjer have exhausted their eligibility and will now be transitioning to professional careers in some kind of capacity this summer (Wiltjer could be a second round pick; McCllelan most likely will be looking D-League or overseas). Sabonis on the other hand has just completed his sophomore year, and still has two years left to wear a Gonzaga uniform.

That is if he wants it. Because to be perfectly frank, not only is he a much more sought after NBA prospect than either of the graduating seniors, he also is one of the Zags' best pro prospects in a long time, and has a chance to be the Zags' first First Round pick since Kelly Olynyk in 2013.

Now, make no mistake, Sabonis is not really a bonafide lottery pick by any means and this is a pretty loaded draft (unlike Olynyk's where there wasn't really a consensus no. 1). There is top "one and done talent" in Ben Simmons from LSU (the consensus No. 1), Brandon Ingram from Duke, and Jalen Brown and Ivan Rabb from California. Polished college scorers like Buddy Hield from Oklahoma and Kris Dunn from Providence. And high-upside European prospects like Dragan Bender from Maccabi Tel Aviv and Timothe Luwawu from Mega Leks of the Adriatic League. Without elite height or wingspan, and average to slightly below athleticism, there is no question that Sabonis' pales at first glance in comparison to many of the eligible prospects who are expected to enter this summer's NBA Draft.

Many college coaches would not encourage Sabonis to declare considering his circumstances. To most college coaches, if you're not a lottery pick, the risk is too high and the reward is too great. Famously, Tyler Ennis declared for the NBA Draft though he was guaranteed to be a first round pick, but not a lottery one, much to the chagrin of his head coach Jim Boeheim. Boeheim argued that Ennis would go into a tough situation without much financial security if he was drafted outside the lottery. And, as much as I dislike the whiny Boehiem, he has proven to be right. Ennis has been flip flopped around the league and has probably spent as much time on a D-League floor than a NBA one.

But, Sabonis is a special player, and while his natural gifts and athleticism may not be "first round" worthy, other aspects of his game make him a great value that will not only be seen and recognize by a NBA team, but perhaps even utilized in some kind of playing role as early as next year. Sabonis is not a project by any means, and that alone will give him a lot of value to teams that are looking to build immediately competitive teams through the draft.

So, why should Sabonis leave and not stay for perhaps another "March Run"? Here are two reasons why Sabonis should stay not just for the benefit of himself but to the benefit of the Gonzaga basketball program as well.


Reason No.1: Sabonis' stock is probably as high as it ever will be and there really isn't anything he can truly work on in 2017 to make him a better prospect

I'm not going to pretend to be a "draft" expert by any means. I watch a lot of basketball, college and NBA included (I subscribe to NBA League pass). I will let other, more qualified writers (like here and here) determine Sabonis' exact stock in comparison to other eligible prospects for this draft. But the fact of the matter is this: nobody in college basketball has raised their stock more in the past month than Sabonis.

First off, look at the numbers: Sabonis averaged 17.3 ppg and 11.5 rpg on 61.3 percent shooting from the floor and posted a 76.9 percent free throw percentage in 33 games this year. If you go into the advanced numbers, the Lithuanian looks even better: he posted a 120.0 adjusted offensive rating according to Ken Pom, with a 115.0 adjusted offensive rating against Tier A competition, much better marks than McCllelan (110) and Wiltjer (105). His 28.2 defensive rebounding rate was 14th best in the nation, and his 65.1 true shooting percentage ranked him 21st in the nation. And to wrap it all up, according to Ken Pom's national player of the year ranking, Sabonis ranks eighth, putting him in the same class with other more heralded players such as Perry Ellis (who ranks 5th), Georges Niang (who ranks 6th) and Virginia's Anthony Gill (who actually is behind him at 10th). In a game and professional league that is becoming more and more reliant on analytics and advanced numbers, Sabonis satisfies the requirements as a legitimate first round pick and possible sleeper lottery pick.

But if you're one of those guys who doesn't buy into all the stats (i.e. Seth Davis), then look at what Sabonis has done on the floor. His footwork is impeccable for a post player, and his bevy of fakes and pivot moves makes up for his lack of length and athleticism. Furthermore, his motor is non-stop and without a doubt, Sabonis carried the Zags numerous times this year emotionally, especially in big games such as the WCC Championship and in the NCAA Tournament. But the biggest crowning achievement? His defensive shutdown of lottery pick Jakob Poeltel of Utah in the second round. Poeltel came into the game as one of the best offensive post players in the country, as evidenced by his 17.3 ppg and 8.9 rpg in 34 games and 124.1
adjusted offensive rating for the year. But against Sabonis? The Austrian center was limited to 5 points on 2 of 5 shooting and only nabbed 4 rebounds, good for an offensive rating of 77, his second lowest rating of the year (his lowest was 66 in a contest against Colorado on January 8th). Despite giving up a couple of inches and some considerable weight to Sabonis, the Lithuanian pushed Poeltel off the block on constant occasion and made him a non-factor whenever he was on the floor. If critics needed confirmation that Sabonis could handle himself against NBA bigs, then they were given a rude awakening after his sterling performance against Utah (he also scored 19 points, nabbed 10 rebounds and sported an offensive rating of 134).

And that's the issue with Sabonis coming back. Unless he leads Gonzaga to the Final Four next year, I can't imagine his stock getting any higher. He really has done all he could do to prove that he can play at the NBA level. Furthermore, there is nothing major that he needs to work on that another year of college would help him with. He has played well against good competition in high-pressure moments (the WCC and NCAA Tournament). He has put up good numbers. He has diversified his game, adding a sneaky good mid-range shot. Yes, Sabonis is left-hand dominant, and the athleticism isn't there, but I can't imagine Sabonis really getting considerably better in those categories with another year of college. For some players, coming back made sense. Olynyk needed to get stronger and he could put time in the weight room to do so. Sabonis is already pretty strong and has a NBA frame, and that will get more refined with more round-the-clock training at the professional level. Team-wise, yes, the Zags would be a heck of a lot better with Sabonis. But individually? There really is no incentive for Sabonis to come back, and I think he will realize that and enter the draft with his stock so high already (and could even go up more due to his father being Arvydas Sabonis).


Reason #2: The Zags will be garnering a lot of talent next year, and Sabonis returning could clog things up and result in potential transfers.

While we still do not know Przemek Karnowski's off-season intentions (he probably has more to gain by staying after missing the year due to back injury but you never know), there will be an influx of talent this off-season that will lessen the loss of Sabonis. Center Ryan Edwards, though limited offensively, is a big body that will thrive with more minutes. And furthermore, the Zags will also add Missouri transfer Johnathan Williams, a stretch 4 type who could play small or power forward who has already been practicing with the team (along with Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss who could compete with Josh Perkins for the starting point guard spot). But the incoming freshman class will include McDonald's All-American Zach Collins, a 6-11 center from Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas that is the 37th ranked player according to ESPN, and European prospects Killian Tillie, a 6-8 forward from France and Jacob Larsen, a 6-10 F/C from Denmark. Considering the Zags' success with European prospects, it would not be surprising if Tillie and/or Larsen are better than their initial recruiting rankings.

Add all that with Karnowski probably back and somebody's feelings will get hurt on the bench and that could mean a potential transfer at the end of next season. As solid as Mark Few is, he definitely has his issues spreading minutes out, and that has definitely had an impact when it comes to players leaving the program (though for the most part, this hasn't hurt the Zags with the exception of Ryan Spangler, who to be fair transferred more to be closer to home than any beef he had with Gonzaga). Yes, there is considerable risk going with more unproven commodities to fill in Sabonis' spot, but if Karnowski is back it should soften the blow and allow the young guys to grow. Even if Karnwoski is back, the experience returning at guard in Perkins and Melson will also help the post players as they grow accustomed to the college game (though if Karnowski is not back, expect some early losses in the non-conference slate).

Yes, Sabonis would make the Zags a potential Final Four candidate and he would be a Naismith-watch player at the start of the season. But, in this day and age of constant transfers, the Zags would probably be best served if Sabonis declared, and that way, they could determine roles in the post positions this off-season during workouts.


Final thoughts on Sabonis

As a Gonzaga fan, I have to think that Sabonis probably was one of the best frontcourt players in Gonzaga history, up there with Olynyk, Robert Sacre and JP Batista. In fact, I would go out on a limb and say he may be the best post player in Gonzaga history as no other player flashed his combo of efficiency and intensity on a night in and night out basis. Sabonis was fun to watch, especially as he yelled after And 1's and got after refs when he felt he was called. He was a guilty pleasure to watch as a Gonzaga fan, and it is a shame I wasn't able to watch Gonzaga as much as I wanted to this year. If I had followed Gonzaga as closely as I did in years past, I probably would have a poster of Sabonis in my classroom.

But, I love and know the NBA game, and Sabonis is ready and would be a fool to stay. And to be honest, that's okay not just for him, but for the Zags. Sometimes you need to move on, and by moving on, Gonzaga can go into this off-season forming their identity without him with the collection of young, though unproven, talent on the horizon.

As a Gonzaga fan, I know that is scary. After all, this year the Zags were so close to snapping their long-time NCAA Tournament streak, and without Sabonis' the Zags might have been in the NIT losing to Valpo rather than Syracuse. But all good things come to an end, and even though Sabonis leaving would be bittersweet, it is best for both parties involved not just for next year, but the next few as well.

Good luck Domas. I know I'll be enjoying seeing you get after NBA refs on League Pass next year.

Sunday, March 27, 2016

Evaluating the WCC Open Coaching Positions

San Francisco's Rex Walters was one of four WCC head coaches let go after this season.


If you could characterize the 2010's in the WCC as one thing, you could probably describe it as a decade of stability. Since 2010, there haven't been many major coaching changes, something that contrasted to the Mid 2000's, where it seemed every school other than Gonzaga or St. Mary's suffered from major and dramatic coaching changes. Other than LMU replacing Max Good with Mike Dunlap two seasons ago (a good decision which I think will come into major fruition next year), Marty Wilson taking over for a retiring Tom Asbury in 2012 and Lamont Smith replacing Bill Grier in 2015, things have been relatively quiet on the coaching carousel front in the WCC.

That changed this off-season, as Pacific, Santa Clara, Portland and San Francisco decided to fire their current head coaches and look for new leaders to "change the direction of their programs" (common AD talk whenever there is a coaching change). Pacific has quickly made one of the biggest splashes not just in the WCC, but nationally as well in the hiring of former Arizona Wildcat, NBA veteran and Memphis assistant Damon Stoudamire. (More on that hire in another post.) Yet as of this moment, the Broncos, Pilots and Dons remain without coaches and it'll be interesting to see who can resurrect these once proud programs who have been unable to maintain consistent success despite sporting strong basketball history and being in talent-rich recruiting areas.

So, let's take a look at each program, what they have to offer and what the next guy will have to do to make those programs successful in the near future. While the WCC has improved competitively since the addition of BYU (mostly) and Pacific (not so much), as Mark Few "hotly" noted in an interview shortly before the NCAA Tournament, the WCC will only get more recognition for at-large berths if the middle-to-bottom tier programs "pick it up". Considering their major market status (San Francisco and Santa Clara being in the Bay Area and Portland in the Pacific Northwest), a coaching turnaround would not only benefit these long-struggling programs, but would also help the WCC become a better-recognized conference in Mid-Major circles in the near future as well.


Portland Pilots

Last Year:
12-20 overall, 6-12 in WCC play (tied for 6th). 4th in conference play in offensive efficiency and 9th in conference play in defensive efficiency. Ranked 214th in Ken Pom ratings.

The Previous Coach: 
Eric Reveno. Coached 10 years at Portland. Total record 140-178. Best season: 2010 where he had a 21-11 record, 10-4 mark in WCC play and was ranked 82nd in Ken Pom. Worst season: 2012 where he went 7-24, 3-13 in conference play and ranked 284th in Ken Pom ratings.

Why Reveno is gone:
No offense to Reveno, but the program really plateaued in 2011, where he really rode forward Luke Sikma to lasting success. Since then, the Pilots have remained in the middle of the pack in the conference (sans 2012), not really bottoming out, but not really competing in the upper echelon either. The Pilots kinda were what they were under Reveno: scrappy, usually good offensively but never a real serious threat to compete with the Gonzaga, BYU and St. Mary's triumvirate.

Reveno came as a highly-regarded assistant out of Stanford under Mike Montgomery and replaced Michael Holton (hat tip to Pilot Nation for the correction, I always get Brad Holland of San Diego and Holton confused), who had NBA ties.  He looked like he had the potential to build something lasting after he finished year two of his tenure, as the Pilots won 19, 21 and 20 games from 2009-2011. Unfortunately, that success proved to be the peak of his tenure, as the Pilots only enjoyed one more winning season in his tenure from 2012-2016 (a 17-16 campaign in 2015).  Reveno tried to employ a more free-wheeling style of play this season that relied on a blistering tempo (72.6 adjusted possession per game, 35th fastest in the nation) and emphasis on the 3-pointer (38.9 percent 3FGA), but it didn't translate into wins, and a 12-20 record was just not enough to salvage his job.

Why this job is enticing:
Portland is the only other school beyond Gonzaga to be located in the Pacific Northwest, and that is an advantage. Oregon and Washington are fertile recruiting states for talent, and Idaho and Montana also have potential for under-the-radar talent that often gets overlooked. Portland the city is also one of the coolest cities in the United States, with all the major amenities and culture of a major American city but with the laid back lifestyle typical of communities in the Pacific Northwest. And lastly, Portland is a basketball hub of sorts, especially considering the city's affinity for the Blazers. A legitimately good Pilots program will be recognized and lauded by the community, especially considering there is no NFL or MLB team in Portland (though the MLS team certainly has its strong fandom).

Why this job is difficult:
The Blazers are the main game in town when it comes to hoops, so that doesn't help. But Oregon and Oregon State have legions of fans and alums located in Portland, and when those teams are doing well, they pretty much dominate the college basketball scene in the city. Much to the Pilots' chagrin, it was a banner year for both the Ducks and the Beavers, as Oregon won the Pac-12, earned a No. 1 seed and made it to the Elite 8 while Oregon State made their first NCAA Tournament berth since 1990. Considering Ducks coach Dana Altman and Beavers coach Wayne Tinkle aren't going anywhere anytime soon, the two programs look to be primed for continued success in the coming seasons, which makes the Pilots' chances of making a splash in the Portland and Pacific Northwest media scene extremely difficult. 

Who do the Pilots need?
The Pilots need a flashy hire, plain and simple. As consistent as Reveno was, he just never really generated a ton of excitement about this program. To be fair to him, that's never been his MO. He came from a program that was known for excellence, but being boring in doing so. (Seriously, remember Mark Madsen and Brevin Knight guys?) The Pilots need a guy who can recruit the Pacific Northwest as well as the West Coast with reckless abandon, and find guys whom Oregon and Oregon State are missing out on. In this article by Oregon Live, a bunch of assistants such as Oregon State's Gregg Gottlieb and Gonzaga's Tommy Lloyd were mentioned, as well as mid-major coaches like Eastern Washington's Jim Hayford and Weber State's Randy Rahe (though don't know if Portland is a step enough for them to leave their current posts), but the name I like the most? Former Blazer legend Terry Porter, who still resides in Portland. Yes, he doesn't have the experience, but they need flash and a name to bring some attention to this program. There could be some growing pains in the first couple of years, but Porter is the kind of big name, high risk, high reward hire that could be a big boost to a program that has remained synonymous with anonymity under Reveno.


Santa Clara Broncos

Last year: 
11-20 overall, 7-11 in WCC play (5th in conference). 7th in conference in offensive efficiency. 10th in defensive efficiency. Ranked 245th in Ken Pom ratings.

The previous coach: 
Kerry Keating. Coached 9 years at Santa Clara. Total record 139-159. Best season: 2013 where they went 26-12 overall with a 9-7 mark in conference play and won the 2013 CBI championship and were ranked 73rd according to Ken Pom. Worst season: 2012 where they went 8-22 and went 0-16 in WCC play and were ranked 283rd according to Ken Pom.

Why Keating is gone:
Keating had big shoes to fill when the administration pushed out long-time head coach Dick Davey to hire Keating, a former UCLA assistant under Ben Howland. Keating's tenure could be one characterized by some massive highs, but mostly lows. In terms of the highs, he did have two 20-plus win seasons and won a CIT tournament in 2011 and a CBI championship in 2013. He also produced one of the conference's most dynamic players in Kevin Foster. But when you take those two 20-plus win seasons out of the equation, his resume looks a heck of a lot more pedestrian: no winning seasons beyond those two years, and his highest win total in conference play was 9 (and this includes those two seasons). At the end of the day, one has to look at what's more predominant, and it was obvious mediocrity was more common in his tenure than really lasting success.

Why this job is enticing:
Though most people don't realize it, Santa Clara has money and a sterling reputation as a school. The school's endowment is third-highest in conference, behind only BYU and Pepperdine. Furthermore, the school is ranked as one of the best academic institutions in the West Coast. If you take a look at their campus, it is beautiful and rivals bigger and more popular neighbors in the Bay Area such as Stanford in Palo Alto and California in Berkeley. Santa Clara has a lot of amenities to offer to make it a hotbed for recruits who may not be getting looked at bigger school in the West Coast.

Furthermore, the Broncos have some great basketball tradition. This is a school that has produced talent such as Kurt Rambis and more recently Steve Nash. The Leavey Center is one of the nicest venues in the WCC and can get absolutely rocking during big games. Santa Clara really is a sleeping giant when it comes to basketball and it could just take the right coach to channel all these campus and basketball factors to make it a player again in the WCC scene.

Why this job is difficult:
It is common to see many schools in the WCC leverage athletics to entice students to come to their school. Gonzaga is a prime example, utilizing their basketball success to lure students to come to a school that they may otherwise overlook. Santa Clara as a university doesn't seem to care about utilizing athletics to gain attention because they don't need to. Look at their school and they have so much to offer that they don't need a good basketball program to attract potential students. This a great sign for the school, but it makes things difficult for their athletic program since it is common to see student apathy with their basketball team. When I lived in San Jose, I attended many Bronco games, and I was appalled how sparsely attended they were beyond the Gonzaga and sometimes San Francisco and St. Mary's games (local Bay Area rivals). And it's not just student apathy, but the community's lukewarm attitude as well. It would not be surprising if the D-League's Santa Cruz Warriors had a higher attendance than the Broncos. If a D-League team is getting higher attendance than your school, it may be a sign that you're not really striking a chord with your community, as often has been the case with the Broncos the past few years.


Who do the Broncos need?
Unlike Portland, which needs flash, I think the Broncos need someone who has legitimate coaching chops. They tried to get flash in Keating with his UCLA ties, but that didn't prove to be very successful. Herb Sendek, the former Arizona and NC State coach, was reported to have met with the Broncos last week according to AZ Central.com and he would be the perfect candidate to build something viable for the Broncos. He's a proven coach, he's proven he can win and recruit in the West Coast, and he's a big enough name to compete with Mark Few, Randy Bennett and Dave Rose in WCC coaching circles. The big question though is whether the Broncos will "pony up" the money to hire Sendek or someone of his caliber, as their patience with Keating didn't exactly show that a "winning" basketball program was a major priority at the university.


San Francisco Dons

Last year:
15-15 overall, 8-10 in WCC play (4th in conference). 5th in conference in offensive efficiency. 7th in defensive efficiency. Ranked 194th in Ken Pom ratings.

The previous coach:
Rex Walters. Coached 8 years at San Francisco. 127-127 overall record. Best season: 2014 where they went 21-12 and 13-5 in conference (made CIT) and ranked 90th in Ken Pom ratings. Worst season: 2009 where they went 11-19, 3-11 in conference and were ranked 255th according to Ken Pom.

Why Walters is gone:
It's amazing to see this job open because Walters seemed like he was doing a good job on the Hill, especially considering where the program was at when he took over. The program stagnated under former Arizona assistant and Louisiana Lafayette Head Coach Jessie Evans, and there was a whole swirl of controversy surrounding Evans' firing mid-season and the temporary hiring of Eddie Sutton (who pretty much took the job to get his 1,000th career win). Walters seemed to inject some new life into the program, and he had some successful years. In 2014, they were a couple of plays away from upsetting BYU in the WCC semifinals, and the 13 wins in conference that year was the most of anyone on this list by far (and even more impressive since it was when BYU was in conference while Reveno's 10-win year was without the Cougars).

But, while the .500 record isn't horrible by any means, Walters was always mired in player issues in his time with the Dons. He had countless players transfer from the program in his tenure (two years ago it was already at 21 and that number went up since then, though I can't confirm how many exactly), and a controversial story involving former 3-year starting point guard Cody Doolin being forced to fight other players in practice by coaches (Walters especially) seemed to haunt him despite some on-court success. Walters seemed to bring out the most of his teams on the court, but off of it, his antics appeared to be too "Mike Rice-ish" and a .500 record simply isn't enough for an administration to condone anything close to that behavior (even if it wasn't full-blown Mike Rice-style). I'm guessing the administration decided to end his tenure before they hit completely bottom, which seemed likely next year with only 1 returning player.


Why this job is enticing:
No school in the WCC (Gonzaga and BYU included) can boast what USF has: two national championships. They also have a history of producing hall of fame players (Bill Russell, KC Jones) and have a campus located in the heart of San Francisco. The Dons also have a passionate fan base and booster and alumni who are willing to do what is necessary to put a successful product on the court (though this got them into trouble in the 80's). Portland suffers from anonymity. Santa Clara suffers from apathy. San Francisco doesn't have those issues, for even with the Warriors in nearby Oakland and the Bears in Berkeley, the Dons are always going to have a portion in the SF Chronicle simply due to the fact that they won two national championships in the 1950's. There's a lot of city pride in this college program, even if the star isn't as bright as it once was decades ago.

Why this job is difficult:
It could be said that Dons alumni and fans have an unrealistic expectation of where this program should be. Walters, player issues aside, seemed to have them in a good competitive place. They were a tough-out for the top tier teams on an annual basis, and looked to be clearly above some of the lower-tier teams in terms of present and future outlook. But, in all honesty, that doesn't seem to be enough for Dons fans and alumni. This is a city that is used to winners like the Niners, Giants and Warriors. This is a program that produced hall of famers. This is school that won two national championships. I am sure that Gonzaga and BYU and St. Mary's (especially this last one since St. Mary's for the longest time seemed to be the little brother to USF in both athletic and academic reputation until Bennett arrived) continuously being better than them gnaws at their pride immensely. That doesn't make things easy for any coach to build success, especially when the resources aren't what they once were and the Dons' location in a major sports market where it is hard to generate fan base beyond the hardcore nostalgic types or alums. 

Who do the Dons need?
Steve Lavin is being talked about as the potential replacement for Walters. To be fair, every time a Dons coach is fired, Lavin is the first name mentioned. And we get it. His dad, Cap, was former player for the Dons in the 1950's who was inducted into the Dons Hall of Fame. And he grew up in the Bay Area, and always seemed more like a fit in the West Coast. But Lavin always seemed to turn the gig down, either seeking bigger, greener pastures (St. John's) or being content in his media lifestyle.

However, Lavin would be a huge boost to this program. He has coached at two major jobs and found some, though not lasting, success with both of them (UCLA and St. John's). He is charismatic and can bring in recruits who normally would go elsewhere. He has always had a strong relationship with players in his history as coach, and unlike Walters, who seemed more abrasive, or at the very least uncomfortable, with the media, would be able to handle the SF media scene with relative ease.

I know Lavin won't be easy. He's turned down the Dons job countless times before. But, he's not a head coach (nor going to be one) at a major school and he's announcing Big East games on Fox, not exactly the limelight he once had at ESPN. Let's face it. USF needs Lavin sure, but Lavin also needs USF too more than ever before. A successful turnaround and Lavin could cement his uneven legacy in college basketball on a positive note.