Coaching Barometer Check: USF's Walters Tops Initial Hot Seat List

A lackluster record and the situation with Cody Doolin is keeping the seat pretty hot for USF coach Rex Walters

It's been a while since there was a coaching change in the WCC (the last being at Pepperdine when Marty Wilson replaced Tom Asbury, who retired mid-season). This a far cry from the days 5-6 years ago, when coaches like Brad Holland, Jessie Evans and Rodney Tention were being thrown through the WCC coaches meat grinder. In some ways, it's been nice to see some coaching consistency in the WCC. That being said, it's getting to that point when you feel as if some coaches are on the way out, as not a lot of teams other than St. Mary's have taken a step up as a consistent threat to Gonzaga's hold on the WCC.

So, a regular feature I'd like to have on here is a coaching barometer. While this is a regular rating on which coaches are on the hot seat, and which ones aren't, it also serves as a bit of a review for each WCC team as of late. The barometer will be separated into 4 sections or "temperatures":

1.) Piping Hot
2.) Pretty Hot
3.) Warm to Lukewarm
4.) Cool

Okay, so let's take a look at the first round of the "Coaching Barometer Check".


Piping Hot

Rex Walters, USF, 7-5 record this year, 83-85 career at USF

On paper, Walters should be safe. After all, this is USF, and after the Quintin Dailey incident that effectively gutted the program (it brought on school-imposed sanctions that the Dons haven't been able to recover from), the fact that they are competitive somewhat in the WCC should be enough for Walters to keep his job. But after the Mike Rice incident at Rutgers last year, coaching behavior is under the radar more than ever and Walters has stirred some controversy as of late with the sudden "retirement" of senior guard Cody Doolin.

The reasons for Doolin leaving was that he had a physical altercation with a teammate at practice. However, in a December article on College Insider.com by Greg Newell, this is what "contributed" to Doolin leaving the USF squad early in the season:

"The Doolin case is interesting and probably by the time this story gets published, facts will come out and it will NOT bode well for Rex Walters. Essentially, Cody was encouraged to fight one of his teammate's at practice, after the two players got into an altercation and coaches told the players to form a circle, as a boxing ring so that the two players could or would come to blows... with their blessing."

Now, Newell doesn't refer to where he got this information, as he mentions no source (not even an anonymous one) for this information. Nonetheless, whether this is true or not (until I see video ala "Mike Rice"-style, I'll call BS on Newell), issues with personnel have plagued Walters during his campaign at USF. According to the article, 22 scholarship players and seven assistant coaches have left the program in Walters' six seasons on "the Hill". One glaring transfer was center Perris Blackwell, who is earning starting minutes for the University of Washington. Cases like Doolin and Blackwell make fans wonder what is Walters doing to not only push out an egregious amount of players, but also quality talent that could be helping this USF program.

Remember, there was a lot of hoopla surrounding Walters' hire. He was chosen over candidates like alum Bill Cartwright, and many felt that his young demeanor and Big 12 and NBA ties would bode well for recruiting and increasing the visibility of a USF program that started to sink under Jessie Evans. But that hasn't happened, and while Walters has produced some offensively efficient teams (they have been in the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency the past three years), defensively they have been a train wreck (best adjusted defensive rating was in 2011 when they were 114th best in the nation. And, after achieving a 20-win season and second straight postseason berth in 2012, the Dons fell back to earth going 15-16 in 2013 and are projected to be under .500 again for the year by Ken Pomeroy (13-17 officially).

Walters may have been a splash hire initially, but Walters hasn't inspired the hope or promise that many USF fans expected when he was initially hired. Add that with all the personnel issues, and the possibility of a "player controversy" looming on the horizon, and it's safe to say Walters needs a big season to probably save his position. Anything less than .500 would probably earn his departure, and even if he is over .500, the Doolin situation may be enough for the USF Athletic Department to let him go.


Pretty Hot

Eric Reveno, Portland, 8-4 this year, 94-129 career at Portland

Depending on how you look at it, you can either say this may be a vast overreaction or a long time coming. When Reveno replaced Michael Holton in 2007, the Pilots had been a doormat in the WCC. After a couple of rough seasons, Reveno had back-to-back-to-back 19-plus win campaigns, including back to back 20-win seasons in 2010 and 2011. He has produced some good players in Luke Sikma and Nik Raivio, and in an extremely-pro NBA (Trailblazers) and College Football (Oregon) city, he has made the Pilots relevant for a period of time, which is a lot more than what some other Pilots coaches accomplished in their time.

And yet, the Pilots have been on the downturn as of late. The Pilots have only won 18 games the past two seasons, and Reveno enters the last year of his contract without an extension being hinted at any time soon. The Pilots have struggled the past two seasons offensively, as they have adjusted offensive ratings under 100 the past couple of years. Furthermore, the Pilots have traditionally played a more half-court, grind it out kind of ball, not surprising since Reveno cut his teeth under former Stanford and current Cal coach Mike Montgomery. With the excitement of Damion Lillard and the Blazers, the Pilots don't play the kind of ball that will attract the average basketball fan in Portland (though to be fair, Reveno has opened it up this year, as their tempo has increased to 71.0, which is a high for tempo in Reveno's career as coach).

Reveno has the Pilots at 8-4 this year, and Ken Pom projects them to go 17-13 for the rest of the season. It's tough to say whether a 17-13 record will be enough though this year. In many ways, that stretch from 2009-2011 seemed like the peak for Reveno's Pilots, and it is possible that the Portland Athletic Department might opt for a change just to breathe some fresh life into this program. Until I see that extension though, Reveno's seat is pretty warm, even with the solid 8-4 start.


Max Good, LMU, 8-4 record this year, 70-89 career record

To be honest, I never expected Good to last this long. After Bill Bayno, their original splash hire after he coached at UNLV and had some experience at the NBA level, stepped down after three games in his first year due to illness, I figured that Good was just a placeholder for a couple of years before they found a bigger hire. However, Good overachieved in his second year, helping the Lions go from 3-28 to to 18-16 in 2010. After an 11-win season in 2011, the Lions achieved their best campaign under Good, going 21-13 with two postseason wins and an upset of UCLA in the first game of the 2012 season.

However, last year, despite some high expectations, the Lions fell back to earth going 11-23. Good has produced some good talent in Drew Viney and current guard Anthony Ireland, but as a whole, the Lions have been inconsistent under Good, as they have failed to produce back-to-back winning seasons in his tenure. Good has pushed the tempo this year (73.1 adjusted tempo, 18th fastest in the nation), and it has resulted in not only a more exciting brand of basketball, but more wins as well (8-4 record this year). But, much like Reveno, Good is in the last year of his contract and no talk of an extension has been mentioned.

Good has brought some relevance to the Lions program again, and he is certainly a colorful character on and off the court. That being said, Ken Pom projects them to go 15-15 for the year, and I do not think a .500 record or slightly above would be enough for Good to merit an extension after this year.


Bill Grier, San Diego, 9-4 record this year, 93-115 career record

Grier couldn't have started his tenure at San Diego better. He not only led the Torreros to 22 wins, but he also led them to a WCC Tourney crown and first round upset of a Hasheem Thabeet-led UConn team in the NCAA Tournament. Since then though, it's been downhill for the former Gonzaga assistant, as he has failed to post a winning record since that successful debut season.

The Torreros have favored a slow it down pace and more defensive oriented approach under Grier, and while that had its merits the first season, it hasn't produced much offensive success in his time there. Under Grier, the Torreros have only posted an adjusted offensive rating in the 100's once (101.1 last year; though at 102 this year, he could make it a second straight year with ratings over the 100's), and they have never cracked the Top-150 in terms of offensive rating either, according to Ken Pom. Defensively, Grier's teams were effective early-on, as they ranked inside the top-100 in defensive rating his first two seasons, but after his third season, the best the Torreros have ranked in Adjusted Defense was 181st, which was also last year. Add that with four straight losing seasons, and it's easy to see why the seat on Grier's chair is pretty warm.

But, the biggest black eye against Grier probably had to come from the point shaving scandal that was leaked in 2012 concerning former star player Brandon Johnson (who was key in the Torreros' upset of UConn) and a former assistant coach. While Grier survived the incident and has been absolved of any wrongdoing, the combo of that incident and a lackluster record doesn't bode well for his future chances if he isn't able to turn it around this year. I think Grier has done some good things at USD, and this Athletic Department has showed extraordinary patience before (former coach Brad Holland seemed to be there forever). But, unless the Torreros are able to make a splash similar to what they did in Grier's debut season, I think his days may be numbered.


Warm to Lukewarm

Kerry Keating, Santa Clara, 7-6 this year, 107-108 career record

Probably more lukewarm after a 26-win season and CBI title which earned him an extension early this year. But considering this program forced out Dick Davey for his lack of recent NCAA Touranment appearances, I have to put Keating in here since he has made the NCAA Tournament ZERO times in his tenure there. And, considering his heralded "UCLA" ties, he hasn't made much of a dent as evidenced by his 107-108 record (Davey went 251-190 in his tenure at SCU).

I think Keating has done some things well at Santa Clara: he has brought in some much better talent, and though his squads have struggled to find consistent success on a year-by-year basis, the Broncos have remained competitive overall in his tenure. He does have two 20-plus wins seasons under his belt, and the winning of the CBI certainly raised his profile a lot and proved to be a nice sending-out for four-year star Kevin Foster, who was coming off a miserable 2011-2012 campaign that was riddled with on and off-the-court problems. That being said, while Keating is probably safe this year regardless of what happens (Ken Pom projects a 14-17 record), it'll be interesting to see if Keating makes good on the recent extension he just signed and finally gets the Broncos a long-awaited NCAA Tournament berth.


Marty Wilson, Pepperdine, 7-5 this year, 32-52 career record

Some are more bullish on Wilson's future, citing that he was a key part of former coach Tom Asbury's staff, and that he has worn out his welcome after being around for so long with the Waves program (Newell was the main dissenter). I just don't see it though. Pepperdine has traditionally stayed with their coaches very long, and while he hasn't produced a lot of wins yet, Wilson has the charisma to earn at least a couple of more years there. Remember, this was the same team that stayed with the incompetent Paul Westphal (great as a player, incompetent as a coach) for five years, so I think Wilson will at least earn himself that long a tenure.

Right now, Wilson has the Waves playing their best basketball in his time there. They are 7-5 and have a couple of decent wins over Denver and UC Irvine. They are also shooting very well, as their 55 percent effective field goal percentage is 30th best in the country. But, there are issues defensively, as they rate 273rd in the country in Adjusted Defense, and they have rated 168th and 229th in 2013 and 2012, respectively in that category as well. Defense was always an issue under former coach Asbury and that seems to be the case again with Wilson. However, while the Waves are due for huge regression (Pomeroy rates them last in the WCC despite their plus-.500 record), I think Wilson has another year to prove himself before he is in danger of getting fired.


Cool

Ron Verlin, Pacific, 9-2 this year, 9-2 career record

First year head coach. 9-2 start. First year in the WCC. Rated 108th in Ken Pom's ratings. Wins over Nevada, Fresno State and Utah State. Yeah, Verlin's not going anywhere any time soon.


Dave Rose, BYU, 8-5 this year, 217-71 career record

The Cougars, missed the NCAA's for only the second time in Rose's tenure (the first time being his first year) last year, but are still playing an exciting brand of basketball, as they rank tops in the nation in Adjusted Tempo at 78.6 (not surprising considering Rose played at Houston during their Phi Slamma Jamma days). While the move to the WCC for the Cougars hasn't resulted in them dethroning the top-two favorites St. Mary's or Gonzaga, they have made the conference infinitely better and has made the the WCC a regular threat in being a three-bid league.

As for his job security? He has never won less than 20 games in his career, and he has a Sweet 16 appearance on his resume along with six NCAA Tournament Appearances. And he dismissed (and later re-instated though after the season) a key player (Brandon Davies) during their "Jimmer-Hysteria" season for breaking the BYU honor code (though that was met with some controversy). Short of him having a very public affair or committing a major felony, I think Rose is set at BYU for a long, long time.


Randy Bennett, St. Mary's, 9-2 this year, 272-126 career record
Mark Few, Gonzaga, 10-2 this year, 384-95 career record

As always, the question is with these two is IF they are going to leave for a bigger school or more high profile job. When that is an annual assumption, I assume you've earned the status of having "no heat" on the coaches' hot seat.

Were Gonzaga and St. Mary's Exposed After Weekend Losses?

Even with the addition of BYU and Pacific, the WCC race within the past decade has come between Gonzaga and St. Mary's. Mark Few and Randy Bennett have been the staples of coaching success in the WCC, and on a regular basis the two schools have produced their fair share of talent (Adam Morrison, Austin Daye, Kelly Olynyk, Omar Samhan, Patty Mills, Matthew Dellavedova just to name a few) which has resulted in a slew of victories and NCAA Tournament appearances for both programs.

That being said, both teams came into this season with a lot of question marks. The Zags lost mainstay forward Elias Harris and glue guys Mike Hart and Guy Landry Edi to graduation, and saw Olynyk leave a year early (can't really blame him) to become a first round draft pick by the Boston Celtics. As for the Gaels, not only did they lose all-conference stud Dellavedova, but they also lost big man Mitchell Young to graduation. While both teams returned a lot of key pieces from their successful 2012-2013 squads, they also lost some key players whose productions would have to be replaced in order to replicate last year's successes and be competitive not just in the WCC, but at the national level again in 2013-2014.

How have the results been so far? So far good for both squads. Entering Saturday's game, the Zags came to Wichita with a 10-1 record to face a talented, but inconsistent Kansas State squad. As for the Gaels, they were away for the holidays, traveling to Hawaii to take on South Carolina, another inconsistent squad that was coming off head scratching losses to Manhattan and USC Upstate in consecutive games, in the first round of the Diamond Head Classic (another interesting subplot was if the Gaels took care of business, they could have faced Boises State, who are coached by former Gonzaga assistant Leon Rice).

Contribute it to the travel or Christmas break or whatever, but things did not go as well as planned for both squads. The Zags struggled against an athletic and scrappy Wildcats team, and without the services of big man Sam Dower, who went down in the first half with a hip injury, the Zags' lack of size was greatly exposed on both ends of the court. As for the Gaels, they were unable to stop the hot-shooting Gamecocks defensively, and they ended up getting surprised by a team that looked to be a bottom feeder for the second straight year in the SEC.

Is this a cause for concern for Gonzaga and St. Mary's fans? Or is this another case of the "Christmas break letdown" blues? (This has been the case for Gonzaga a lot in the past decade). Let's take a deeper look into both games:


Gonzaga versus Kansas State (72-64)

For the year, Kansas State has struggled to find offensive consistency for the year. Their adjusted offensive rating according to Ken Pomeroy is 102.2 (roughly 1.02 points per possession), and their effective field goal percentage is 46 percent, 283rd best in the nation. Their inability to find consistent offense explains why they have some letdown losses to teams like Northern Colorado (at home) and Charlotte (neutral court). However, if you want to give credit to second-year coach Bruce Weber (and I don't like to give him credit for anything the way he drove that Illinois program into the ground), you have to applaud his ability to keep the Wildcats solid as a defensive squad. This year, their 94.3 adjusted defensive rating is 20th best in the nation, and they excel in terms of contesting and forcing bad shots and turnovers, as they are holding teams this year to a 45.1 effective field goal percentage (44th best in the nation) and have a turnovers forced percentage of 21.9 (27th best in the nation). The big story was this: could the sweet-shooting Zags succeed against a K State team that held teams in check on the perimeter and from beyond the arc (the Wildcats are holding teams to a 25.8 percent three point percentage for the year, 4th best in the nation)?

Well, Kansas State succeeded on the defensive end for the most part. Sans the performance of Kevin Pangos (more on him later), Drew Barnham and the limited performance of Sam Dower before he went out with injury, the Zags were immensely poor on the offensive end. While Karnowski shot well from the field (5-of-6), his 0-for-6 performance from the charity stripe hurt the Zags as he finished with an offensive rating of 92 for the game, according to Ken Pom. David Stockton and Kyle Draginis also provide mediocre performances on the offensive end, as they finished with offensive ratings of 92 and 90, respectively. But the worst offender of the game? Gary Bell, who has showed some strong consistency this year in his junior season, posted a rating of 64, as he struggled from beyond the arc, missing some key three point shots down the stretch and finishing 1-of-7 from the field with a mere 3 points. The Zags for the game finished with only 1.03 points per possession, greatly down from their 1.16 season average (which went down from that game, so it was higher but I don't have the number yet). Kansas State needed to shut down the Zags on the offensive end to have a shot in this game, and when Dower went down, the Zags's lack of size (minus-2.0 effective height for the year, 299th in the nation, and that is WITH Dower) and presence in the post was greatly exposed and the Wildcats were able to put more pressure on the perimeter with only Karnowski as the legitimate threat in the paint.

However, another story for the game was the Wildcats' offensive breakout. Kansas State averaged 1.20 points per possession in this game, helped by 52.8 percent shooting on their two point shots (though they continued to struggle from beyond the arc, as they only made 5 out of 18). Furthermore, they were able to out rebound the Zags on the offensive end (10-8 on the offensive glass), get to the free throw line more as well (25 to the Zags' 15), and they turned the ball over less than the Zags (4-to-12). Considering the Zags lost all four factors of this game, the fact that they only lost by eight is pretty remarkable. Forward Thomas Gipson proved to be the thorn for the Zags individually, as he scored 14 points on 6 of 8 shooting, good for an offensive rating of 163 in only 21 minutes.

So, should Zags fans hit the panic button yet? Well, it all depends on the health of Dower. X-Rays have come back negative on Dower's hip, but it'll be interesting to see how he recovers and how this will affect his play for the year. While the Zags have transfer forward Angel Nunez eligible, he did not play in the Wildcats game, and it'll be interesting to see if he'll get an increased role with Dower's health a question over the coming weeks. That being said, I think this was the perfect storm game for the Zags, as the loss of Dower, combined with the rare offensive outburst of the Wildcats put the chips stacked against the Zags from the beginning. As I said before, the fact that they only lost by eight, despite losing all four factors of the game is pretty remarkable. I will say this: Pangos is certainly the backbone of this team, and I think it's his "WCC Player of the Year" award to lose this year. Despite getting shut out in the first half, Pangos made the necessary adjustments in the second half and finished with 14 points, 6 assists and an offensive rating of 120. Pangos is proving he's "The Man" on this Gonzaga team, and I think the confidence he got from this game will bode well for the Zags going forward, since they aren't going to face a lot of teams that are as big a threat defensively as the Wildcats in WCC play.


St. Mary's vs. South Carolina (78-71)

The big issue with Randy Bennett's squads in the past is that they have played soft non-conference schedules. This year has been no different, as the Gaels have only played one game away from home (Boise State) and have not played anyone in the Top-50 according to Ken Pom's ratings. So, while the 9-0 record was nice, many wondered how the Gaels would stack up against the Zags in conference play, since their record was padded by such an easy early schedule.

I expected a letdown of some sort from the Gaels in this tournament, but I did not expect it to come at the hands of South Carolina, a team that was coming off brutal losses to Manhattan and USC Upstate (rated 84th and 154th, respectively by Ken Pom). However, the Gaels, while again efficient on the offensive end (12th in the nation in offensive efficiency), have displayed inconsistency this year on the defensive end, as evidenced by their 101.1 defensive rating, 128th in the nation. The Gaels don't cause a lot of turnovers (only an 18 percent turnover rate, 208th in the nation) and they don't get a lot of steals (7.9 steal rate, 252nd in the nation), so they rely on their presence and ability to force bad shots in order to be effective on the defensive side of the ball. It has worked for the most part, as teams are only shooting an effective field goal percentage of 47.1, so when the Gaels are able to settle down defensively in the half court, they do show some ability on the defensive end to prevent points on possessions.

However, for whatever reason, the Gamecocks came lighting it up in Hawaii, as they shot 58.5 percent on their two points shots, and four of seven from beyond the arc. The offensive performance was a surprise for the Gamecocks, as they were shooting a woefully bad 44.9 on their two points shots this year, and post an overall effective field goal percentage of 46.5. And yet, the Gamecocks were able to shot almost 14 percent higher than their season average on two point shots, which lead to them scoring 1.24 points per possession against the Gaels. Surprisingly, the Gaels didn't slouch on the offensive end, as they averaged 1.13 points per possession thanks to the performances of Stephen Holt, Beau Levesque and James Walker, who posted offensive ratings of 137, 124 and 142, respectively. Waldow also scored a team-high 20 points, though his 112 offensive rating and 28 percent possession percentage made his performance less impressive to the other three.

So where did the Gaels go wrong? While the Gamecocks did get to the line more, they didn't make it count, as evidenced by their 62.1 percentage from the charity stripe. One of the big factors had to be on the offensive glass, as even though the Gamecocks had less for the game, they had a higher percentage of offensive rebounds (44 percent) to the Gaels (38.2 percent). Add that with a superior shooting day for the Gamecocks, and the Gaels, despite playing effectively on the offensive end, just weren't able to pull this one off. Guards Sindarious Thornwell and Duane Notice had effective games against the Gaels' perimeter players, as they scored 13 and 11 points, respectively (good for ratings of 129 and 183). Additionally, they got excellent production off the bench from 6-11 big man Laimonas Chatkevicius (12 points 7 rebounds, 119 rating) and guard Brenton Williams, who hit two key threes in the game. This was a stark contrast to the Gaels, as they got limited production from their bench in this game, as only guard Kerry Carter had much of an impact as a reserve, and even he struggled to get going in this game (91 rating, 5 points).

Much like Kansas State against the Zags, the Gamecocks outplayed their usual output on the offensive end, and that proved to be the Gaels' undoing, especially since they are not a team that generates a lot of turnovers on the defensive end (they depend more on shutting down opponents and limiting second chance shots). The Gaels are not a very deep team, as they only got 12 minutes this game from their other bench players other than Carter (who had 36), and their bench only has accounted for 24 percent of game minutes for the year, 322nd in the nation. This will be interesting to see come WCC play, for the Gaels could be in trouble if key players get into foul trouble (which they have avoided for the most part this year). One through Five, the Gaels can play with anyone, and their ability on the offensive end is for real as well. But the perimeter depth (though certainly not front court depth) of Gonzaga could pose problems for the Gaels when they face each other in WCC play. That being said, I still believe the Gaels are legitimate contenders in the WCC, even despite the soft non-conference schedule and loss to South Carolina on Sunday.

Introduction to Catholic Coast Hoops

I have created a lot of blog projects in my lifetime. Blogs and I are like Taylor Swift and Boyfriends: we go through a lot of them, though we're totally into them for the given period of time. However, this is one I feel confident in keeping up. If not, don't say I didn't warn you. My blog projects are often short lived, much like Michael Cimino's movie ideas. However, every now and then, I am able to really get behind something (as in the case in Optioned to Fresno and Remember '51). Hopefully, Catholic Coast Hoops will be one of those "something's".

In terms of an intro to Catholic Coast Hoops, this is a blog focused on covering WCC men's basketball with a healthy dose of statistical analysis. This isn't a place for game recaps or interviews, but I want to try to write decent articles about statistical trends and reports on certain teams and players in the WCC. I really believe in advanced stats in basketball, and as evidenced by NBA Stats' new web page, the revolution I think in terms of statistical analysis in basketball, while behind baseball still, is starting to catch on. Thanks to sites like Ken Pomeroy.com and StatSheet, statistical analysis is being used more in the college game, and with the quest to make the NCAA tournament even more important than ever for schools, seeing what schools are worthy and which ones aren't through advanced analysis is more important than ever.

But why WCC Hoops? Well, I went to a WCC school and I grew up around multiple WCC schools in some way or form. WCC hoops is something familiar and beloved to me, even though I'm in the middle of the country thousands of miles away from WCC action. However, thanks to technology (i.e. cable TV and broadband internet), I am able to still follow WCC basketball in earnest, even though I am not able to attend as many live games as I used to. It's heartbreaking I know, but sometimes you got to make sacrifices in life. Call it "the curse of adulthood".

What do I hope to do with this blog? I hope to write about WCC basketball year-around because in reality, basketball is the only sport that matters in the WCC (sorry soccer and baseball, but you know it's true). And also, I love basketball at all levels, so to be able to cover recruiting in the off-season is also something I look forward to in the off-season.

I know there are a lot of great WCC sites out there, and this one is far from being in their league. But hopefully, you'll get something a little different from what else is out there. Hopefully you'll stick it out as I get settled on this blog.